Disastrous-Fantasy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

80.0%

Resolved

Trades

277

lifetime

Volume

$5.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$104

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-11 12:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

60% 80% $-5

Politics

36% 67% $-8

Tech

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+123	$100	84¢	$104	+$4	06-09 13:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	7	$260	277	0	+277	open	—	06-11 12:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	4	$191	198	0	+198	open	—	05-22 07:37
si up or down on january 27 2026	6	$186	195	0	+195	open	—	01-27 14:23
gc settle above 5100 jan 2026	4	$177	143	143	+0	open	—	01-30 14:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$171	201	0	+201	open	—	05-28 06:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$160	175	0	+175	open	—	05-12 07:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	4	$145	155	0	+155	open	—	06-03 07:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$125	117	56	+60	open	—	04-30 06:07
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	1	$100	3,964	0	+3,964	open	—	02-13 15:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$100	123	0	+123	open	—	06-09 13:51
si up or down on january 28 2026	1	$100	115	0	+115	open	—	01-28 08:07
will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	02-24 07:54
spx up or down on january 22 2026	2	$84	92	0	+92	open	—	01-22 14:30
gc up or down on january 27 2026	1	$82	100	0	+100	open	—	01-27 14:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	2	$80	106	0	+106	open	—	04-17 09:54
si up or down on january 15 2026	4	$70	89	0	+89	open	—	01-15 15:53
si hit 110 high jan 2026 293 432 128	3	$62	62	21	+41	open	—	01-26 15:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	2	$60	67	0	+67	open	—	05-26 06:35
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$50	62	0	+62	open	—	04-17 09:48
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$50	67	0	+67	open	—	04-29 07:32
will galatasaray advance to the round of 16	1	$50	57	0	+57	open	—	02-18 16:24
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	2	$50	54	0	+54	open	—	02-24 14:19
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 220 239	1	$50	54	0	+54	open	—	02-17 11:05
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	05-27 12:31
spx opens up or down on february 10 2026	2	$50	44	44	+0	open	—	02-10 13:33
spx up or down on january 30 2026	1	$42	49	0	+49	open	—	01-30 16:32
spx opens up or down on january 23 2026	2	$41	53	0	+53	open	—	01-23 14:20
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	1	$40	44	0	+44	open	—	02-02 16:29
will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	1	$40	53	0	+53	open	—	02-25 15:52
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	1	$40	45	0	+45	open	—	02-10 07:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 12:39:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xfef9d2…
06-10 07:26:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xe6d504…
06-09 13:51:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x219476…
06-09 06:58:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x8541a1…
06-08 08:54:33	will wti crude oil wti hit high 125 in june	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xf07286…
06-08 08:54:27	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x5cca99…
06-08 07:02:19	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x943a6a…
06-08 07:01:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x7f487d…
06-03 07:06:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xd4e9d3…
06-03 07:06:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xf93d6f…
06-02 14:30:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xebe27c…
06-02 14:30:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x42fd48…
06-02 09:05:53	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x698036…
06-02 09:05:46	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x1cdaf3…
06-01 15:24:46	Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xe83a28…
06-01 11:10:17	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x697653…
06-01 11:09:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xaedc3a…
06-01 11:08:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x527003…
05-28 06:25:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x2ea8b7…
05-28 06:25:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x9c4c11…
05-27 13:25:24	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x7f593b…
05-27 12:31:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xebc812…
05-26 12:34:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xf107d7…
05-26 06:36:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x694a2f…
05-26 06:36:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x091282…
05-26 06:35:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x2cfdfa…
05-26 06:35:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x8a1bd5…
05-22 07:37:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x720725…
05-21 09:04:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x6ffea7…
05-20 07:32:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x34b1d1…
05-20 07:31:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x71d0c2…
05-20 07:31:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xab2aa4…
05-19 13:40:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xb58542…
05-19 13:39:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xb7d020…
05-19 12:22:01	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x9e26b4…
05-19 10:27:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x00d7d3…
05-18 15:56:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x7c8759…
05-18 12:58:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x64f98b…
05-18 12:58:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x84af2f…
05-18 06:57:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x84ca41…
05-13 06:18:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x9eadda…
05-13 06:18:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x44d5fe…
05-13 06:17:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x1669d9…
05-12 07:06:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0x313c89…
05-12 07:06:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x63fb79…
05-11 15:53:59	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0a1cfa…
05-11 08:51:25	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x7263ad…
05-11 08:50:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xdae652…
05-11 08:48:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x5bccce…
05-11 08:48:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x8220de…
05-06 15:54:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x623527…
05-06 15:54:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x12cb44…
05-06 12:23:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xb1f4a0…
05-06 12:20:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x02cf04…
05-06 12:20:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0xb24310…
05-06 12:19:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0xe65e9b…
05-05 15:25:00	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x75c4c5…
05-05 15:22:54	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xe95573…
05-05 06:58:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xf8d9b8…
05-05 06:58:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xc710fb…
05-04 14:28:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x98ddac…
05-04 14:27:50	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xeb2a86…
04-30 06:07:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xf074a5…
04-30 06:07:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xc41889…
04-30 06:07:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xb70fcf…
04-29 07:33:32	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x65721c…
04-29 07:32:24	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x514cc4…
04-28 09:38:22	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x88f61f…
04-22 15:50:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xada490…
04-22 15:49:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x1cb950…
04-17 13:00:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	56	44¢	$25	0x0c05e3…
04-17 09:54:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0xb9d616…
04-17 09:52:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x107996…
04-17 09:52:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x2c3917…
04-17 09:52:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x0c0667…
04-17 09:50:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xd75674…
04-17 09:48:28	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x818087…
04-17 09:48:00	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x6cbd23…
04-01 15:43:47	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xeff78b…
04-01 15:42:51	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x6c8315…
04-01 15:42:37	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x07ca74…
04-01 15:41:23	will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x4041d1…
03-30 06:45:40	will italy qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0x1b8c90…
03-25 15:52:37	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc4feab…
03-25 15:51:59	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x7f8d89…
03-25 15:51:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xdf4ea5…
03-23 14:03:19	italy nordio reform referendum passes	Yes	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x766fec…
03-23 13:32:13	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x6ea5c6…
03-23 13:31:55	will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	Yes	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x962c55…
03-23 13:30:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xff439b…
03-23 13:29:29	cl up or down on march 23 2026	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x1c2be8…
03-17 11:20:57	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0xe7c958…
03-11 10:49:17	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 420 439	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xbb02fc…
03-10 08:22:47	spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	Up	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xc31381…
03-09 15:05:05	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x3f91b7…
03-09 14:44:35	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 360 379	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x38bc4c…
03-09 07:55:17	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xc607fd…
03-05 08:10:07	btc updown 5m 1772697900	Up	BUY	1,111	1¢	$10	0x243bb0…
03-04 07:26:39	elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 0 39	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x681006…
03-04 07:22:01	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x85316c…