Valid-Divorce — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$201

Unrealized P&L

-$2.90K

Hit rate

85.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,079

lifetime

Volume

$200.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$186

Open exposure

$740

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 07-18 16:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% 100% +$229

Politics

44% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-430

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes		+5,000	$950	12¢	$625	$-325	06-19 18:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+10,000	$2,686	1¢	$115	$-2,571	07-02 17:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	72	$24.3K	12,425	12,425	+0	open	—	04-26 23:51
netanyahu out by march 31 854	9	$16.6K	10,409	6,522	+3,887	open	—	03-21 09:35
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	4	$9.2K	4,634	4,634	+0	open	—	04-08 20:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	4	$7.0K	8,000	0	+8,000	open	—	05-08 13:56
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	16	$6.5K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	04-08 06:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	22	$6.1K	4,060	4,060	+0	open	—	03-02 07:04
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	10	$5.9K	5,000	1,300	+3,700	open	—	05-27 15:44
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	67	$5.1K	4,378	4,378	+0	open	—	04-12 02:25
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	55	$4.6K	5,000	4,479	+521	open	—	04-07 22:51
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	42	$4.5K	3,388	2,536	+852	open	—	03-20 07:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$4.5K	5,958	1,000	+4,958	open	—	03-28 07:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$4.3K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	05-07 21:53
will metas q1 headcount be above 79000	29	$4.1K	4,258	0	+4,258	open	—	04-28 10:18
will uae strike iran by march 31	15	$3.8K	4,916	90	+4,826	open	—	03-19 18:28
cs2 mibr 3dmax 2026 04 09	11	$3.8K	4,910	1,763	+3,146	open	—	04-09 09:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	31	$3.5K	5,220	5,220	+0	open	—	04-21 22:26
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	24	$3.5K	3,900	3,900	+0	open	—	04-10 16:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$3.3K	10,750	8,219	+2,531	open	—	05-29 03:05
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	28	$3.1K	3,989	29	+3,960	open	—	03-09 01:04
will metas q1 headcount be above 78000	28	$3.1K	3,523	0	+3,523	open	—	04-28 03:50
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	43	$3.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	07-13 15:51
will metas q1 headcount be above 77000	70	$3.0K	6,560	0	+6,560	open	—	04-28 10:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$2.7K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	07-02 17:56
Will Khamenei visit Russia by June 30?	6	$2.5K	2,535	0	+2,535	open	—	03-01 01:39
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$2.4K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	03-13 16:46
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$2.2K	2,579	0	+2,579	open	—	06-17 16:18
will crude oil cl hit high 70 by end of march 696 795 574 483 322 319 847	3	$2.2K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	03-02 21:01
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	5	$2.1K	2,548	0	+2,548	open	—	06-30 00:11
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	4	$2.1K	1,333	1,333	+0	open	—	04-08 20:23
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	17	$2.1K	2,306	0	+2,306	open	—	02-14 17:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 16:43:21	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	2,000	67¢	$1,340	0x74cbb0…
07-13 15:51:13	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4,000	24¢	$966	0xb331c3…
07-02 17:56:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10,000	27¢	$2,686	0xfaeb3e…
06-30 00:11:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	557	80¢	$446	0x0fc80f…
06-30 00:09:29	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	356	80¢	$285	0xe828e2…
06-30 00:04:23	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	87	80¢	$70	0x7011b4…
06-29 16:16:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1,146	86¢	$983	0x905b4f…
06-29 16:16:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	402	85¢	$342	0x4b2a56…
06-20 14:50:23	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	121	50¢	$60	0x65ca5a…
06-20 14:50:10	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	600	50¢	$300	0x988a90…
06-20 14:50:05	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x193ae4…
06-20 13:14:32	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x8b1c4f…
06-20 13:10:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xe37e6d…
06-20 11:04:47	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	50¢	$150	0xfc2068…
06-20 09:02:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x20f8d7…
06-20 09:02:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0xa3cdc6…
06-20 06:28:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	76	50¢	$38	0xd3a71d…
06-20 06:28:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	71	50¢	$36	0x67d0be…
06-20 06:28:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	63	50¢	$32	0x29e485…
06-20 06:28:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	27	50¢	$14	0x113752…
06-20 06:05:29	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	63	50¢	$32	0xb6d2d6…
06-20 06:05:29	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	48	50¢	$24	0x2a1928…
06-20 05:40:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x37df3e…
06-20 05:27:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x1a0bcb…
06-20 05:11:23	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xa21314…
06-20 04:35:13	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	42	50¢	$21	0x7a2ae8…
06-20 03:50:08	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	50¢	$6	0xc4e965…
06-20 03:43:35	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	64	50¢	$32	0x3f06a6…
06-20 03:08:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	50¢	$500	0xafa383…
06-20 01:16:23	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x853b26…
06-20 01:02:08	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xcf2e8d…
06-20 00:29:28	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x416b77…
06-20 00:24:58	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x3d0625…
06-20 00:23:16	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0xd0a774…
06-20 00:15:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0xb961cb…
06-19 23:47:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x61e637…
06-19 22:51:02	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0x4acc3b…
06-19 22:03:07	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	89	50¢	$44	0x7fee25…
06-19 21:59:29	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xbd256f…
06-19 21:42:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	57	50¢	$28	0x8005e9…
06-19 21:42:32	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x18e6fe…
06-19 21:02:35	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x5be19b…
06-19 19:11:17	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0xad1845…
06-19 19:05:07	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc30dd6…
06-19 18:48:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x56aa1f…
06-19 18:35:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	50¢	$8	0x780c6b…
06-19 18:35:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0efe5a…
06-19 18:33:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x6bf508…
06-19 18:33:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x278013…
06-19 18:29:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x0a85e0…
06-19 18:28:17	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,636	19¢	$881	0x59c4af…
06-19 17:40:28	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	19¢	$9	0xd8a718…
06-19 17:40:28	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	19¢	$5	0xa6f211…
06-19 17:02:08	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	19¢	$6	0xa95f54…
06-19 16:56:58	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xc49867…
06-19 16:44:56	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	258	19¢	$49	0x18f39c…
06-19 16:36:52	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x9bb1cb…
06-19 16:10:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	BUY	703	17¢	$122	0x57c346…
06-19 16:03:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	693	41¢	$284	0x723061…
06-19 00:55:20	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	54	89¢	$48	0x7d694d…
06-19 00:54:50	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xb7ef0e…
06-19 00:51:11	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	48	90¢	$43	0x307385…
06-19 00:42:43	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x472b41…
06-18 16:05:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	2,000	39¢	$780	0x35799c…
06-18 16:04:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	4,000	15¢	$600	0x7bbec6…
06-18 03:12:13	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	BUY	2,000	60¢	$1,200	0x95808a…
06-18 03:12:13	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	SELL	1,800	40¢	$720	0x95808a…
06-18 01:59:56	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x74c1ce…
06-18 01:59:56	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x03d012…
06-18 01:33:26	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x51f64f…
06-18 01:33:19	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	Yes	SELL	197	40¢	$79	0xb34186…
06-18 00:18:59	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x559938…
06-18 00:18:59	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x03e63c…
06-18 00:16:02	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x86b2f9…
06-17 19:57:29	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	342	53¢	$181	0xb560b0…
06-17 19:46:01	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	79	53¢	$42	0x5670f4…
06-17 19:44:17	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x10f3c8…
06-17 16:31:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	95¢	$44	0xb8308c…
06-17 16:26:52	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x849144…
06-17 16:21:16	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	2,000	86¢	$1,720	0xa74a13…
06-17 16:20:08	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	380	95¢	$361	0x7904a5…
06-17 16:19:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	38	46¢	$18	0xe69aa7…
06-17 16:18:23	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,579	86¢	$2,213	0x422e38…
06-17 16:17:19	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	65	90¢	$59	0x7f3d55…
06-17 16:15:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	534	95¢	$507	0xc66f7b…
06-17 16:15:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	655	46¢	$301	0xcdf121…
06-16 18:43:43	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	No	SELL	500	41¢	$205	0xfb81ef…
06-16 18:13:56	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	No	BUY	410	51¢	$209	0xc54abb…
06-16 17:40:08	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	No	BUY	90	51¢	$46	0x40e567…
06-11 21:03:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	444	13¢	$56	0xc67406…
06-11 21:03:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xf2d2e3…
06-02 19:17:39	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,000	39¢	$1,181	0x27f4eb…
05-29 03:18:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	270	42¢	$113	0xa97252…
05-29 03:17:51	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xf54b4a…
05-29 03:17:29	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0xe45a25…
05-29 03:16:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	250	15¢	$39	0xda25ca…
05-29 03:16:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x81ce39…
05-29 03:16:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	600	42¢	$252	0x3e7985…
05-29 03:05:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,531	11¢	$278	0xc5c2bc…
05-29 03:05:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,688	11¢	$186	0xb9448e…