Strict-Mouton — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$60

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

56.1%

Resolved

108

Trades

414

lifetime

Volume

$7.67K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$70

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 08-24 18:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Other

43% 63% -$20

Politics

26% 35% -$43

Crypto

24% 80% +$3

Sports

5% 83% +$0

Pop-Culture

2% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	-24	-$24	100¢	$-24	$0	04-28 14:24
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	-24	-$24	100¢	$-24	$0	04-28 14:23
Will New England Revolution win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	-23	-$22	96¢	$-22	+$0	04-28 14:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	15	$403	202	202	+0	No	+$0	06-04 11:48
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 9?	5	$394	200	200	+0	No	+$2	05-09 03:50
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	17	$375	188	188	+0	No	$0	04-28 14:23
will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	10	$253	127	127	+0	No	+$0	04-01 05:10
will the us invade iran by march 31	8	$216	800	800	+0	No	-$4	03-27 12:45
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	8	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$0	04-01 05:10
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	8	$195	98	98	+0	No	$0	03-20 09:07
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	8	$190	95	95	+0	No	+$0	08-24 10:54
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	8	$169	85	85	+0	No	+$0	04-05 12:27
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	7	$168	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	03-27 13:19
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	8	$161	81	81	+0	No	+$0	04-20 04:55
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?	9	$157	79	79	+0	No	+$0	03-19 07:57
will meituan have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	6	$154	77	77	+0	No	$0	03-27 05:02
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	7	$153	86	67	+19	No	+$0	04-15 16:31
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	13	$137	173	173	+0	Yes	$0	03-20 10:17
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	7	$124	200	200	+0	No	$0	03-24 14:27
will saudi aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	4	$112	56	56	+0	No	+$0	02-20 05:06
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	17	$102	2,391	2,391	+0	No	-$3	05-27 10:53
Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	4	$102	51	51	+0	No	$0	04-28 14:23
will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	3	$97	200	200	+0	Yes	+$1	03-27 08:02
will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	5	$94	47	47	+0	No	+$0	03-24 07:40
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?	8	$94	47	47	+0	No	+$0	03-15 21:33
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	7	$90	45	45	+0	No	$0	08-24 10:54
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	2	$89	100	100	+0	No	+$0	04-01 17:00
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	7	$87	100	100	+0	No	+$1	03-24 07:29
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	3	$83	55	28	+27	No	+$0	05-30 14:21
Will Solana reach $170 in May?	4	$82	41	41	+0	No	+$0	05-24 14:24
will alibaba have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	5	$80	40	40	+0	No	+$0	03-17 08:36
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	3	$79	53	26	+27	No	+$0	05-08 12:39
hood up or down on april 15 2026	2	$78	50	50	+0	Up	-$6	04-15 05:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-24 18:36:10	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x925568…
08-24 18:35:37	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0x9622ac…
08-24 18:35:33	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0x598f5c…
08-24 18:35:27	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0x91e726…
08-24 18:28:43	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	79	2¢	$2	0x6dbe1c…
08-24 18:28:42	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	33	2¢	$1	0x4ce4f2…
08-24 10:54:51	Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xd4e064…
08-24 10:54:39	Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x7e8b38…
06-24 12:56:04	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	148	2¢	$3	0x0bc3e8…
06-16 16:29:53	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$7	0x3689c3…
06-15 10:12:58	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	8¢	$16	0xca05e4…
06-14 07:20:06	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xd814e4…
06-14 06:21:10	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x774a9c…
06-14 05:56:40	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x9fbdd2…
06-14 05:00:09	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x281f8d…
06-13 20:13:58	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	29	4¢	$1	0x3ce83f…
06-12 17:43:22	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0x9a47d8…
06-11 16:49:36	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	SELL	85	5¢	$4	0x93063b…
06-11 13:42:31	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	SELL	165	5¢	$8	0x2c5c4f…
06-10 12:34:46	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0xf52995…
06-10 12:32:48	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$6	0xcdb491…
06-10 12:32:12	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$7	0x3cd705…
06-10 12:31:52	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$7	0x4e0923…
06-10 12:27:27	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	54	3¢	$2	0xf55bc4…
06-10 12:27:07	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x592283…
06-10 12:26:42	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0x3308b8…
06-10 12:26:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	312	4¢	$12	0x16609d…
06-10 02:59:51	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	400	2¢	$8	0x696a05…
06-09 13:00:57	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$4	0x8f58d2…
06-08 11:44:03	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	BUY	54	4¢	$2	0x4912b4…
06-08 11:43:40	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0x28ee71…
06-08 11:39:36	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$4	0x16a0ab…
06-08 11:38:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	312	4¢	$12	0x54f680…
06-08 11:37:42	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$8	0xf31c4b…
06-08 11:37:09	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	250	2¢	$5	0x9bec58…
06-06 08:28:01	Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	238	2¢	$5	0xdc3b93…
06-06 06:14:31	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	2¢	$2	0xa405fc…
06-06 06:03:48	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	202	2¢	$3	0x857e0d…
06-06 04:42:25	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	135	8¢	$10	0x26c9ff…
06-06 02:01:28	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	364	0¢	$1	0x7c0a9f…
06-05 04:55:55	Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	2¢	$5	0x85a201…
06-05 04:40:27	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xb255b4…
06-05 04:38:09	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$5	0xb05a98…
06-05 04:37:28	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	364	1¢	$4	0xc01561…
06-05 04:35:36	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	7¢	$10	0xb91ccb…
06-04 11:48:18	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xb6a495…
06-04 11:47:55	Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x9656ad…
05-31 18:33:12	Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	7¢	$4	0x6712d4…
05-31 00:02:21	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf3d5a4…
05-30 14:21:13	Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x5e9003…
05-29 19:03:19	Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x593a11…
05-29 09:22:07	Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa5b237…
05-28 05:57:53	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x94fc80…
05-28 05:57:30	Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xd1b4a1…
05-28 05:57:00	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xb5c950…
05-28 05:56:32	Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x94546c…
05-27 17:53:16	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x14705f…
05-27 11:17:11	Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x5840e6…
05-27 10:53:10	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	291	1¢	$4	0x057e4f…
05-27 04:53:43	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xa44b84…
05-27 02:02:06	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x26c0d1…
05-26 14:33:30	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x4483d2…
05-26 13:16:58	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x0e5387…
05-25 22:13:53	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x198296…
05-25 20:22:36	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0x472150…
05-25 20:22:07	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xf40645…
05-25 19:34:17	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x8f8b4f…
05-25 18:15:49	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	107	1¢	$1	0x56607c…
05-25 10:33:47	Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	7¢	$4	0x5d5825…
05-25 05:45:23	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xdf2236…
05-24 20:28:43	Will Dave Young be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf66937…
05-24 14:24:11	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x8fad85…
05-24 14:23:45	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x0c2835…
05-24 13:21:41	Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x4abd5b…
05-23 13:41:46	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x1dcd90…
05-21 15:54:25	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8a6063…
05-21 02:30:19	Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x0280d3…
05-21 02:29:53	Will Lee Jae-sung win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xb38b71…
05-21 02:29:21	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x5bbc05…
05-21 02:28:57	Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xa6835b…
05-21 00:33:56	Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x89acec…
05-20 11:59:12	Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd63bc2…
05-20 08:14:26	Will Lee Jae-sung win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x78a33a…
05-19 13:15:27	Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x77c3df…
05-19 11:28:54	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	400	1¢	$5	0x3a6c4d…
05-18 16:32:31	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$6	0x733601…
05-18 15:55:54	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0x305820…
05-18 15:53:54	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	7¢	$12	0x8fb908…
05-18 12:06:38	Will DNM (DEK) win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x84b479…
05-18 12:06:36	Will DNM (DEK) win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xe8551b…
05-18 10:31:59	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xc2d855…
05-18 09:09:35	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0xb6fbbe…
05-18 03:09:07	Will Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x615307…
05-18 03:08:44	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x37c25a…
05-18 03:08:21	Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xd12a24…
05-17 15:12:33	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x701513…
05-17 08:58:12	Will DNM (DEK) win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x068c9d…
05-17 01:18:32	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	600	2¢	$9	0x93c54a…
05-16 11:18:40	Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xa44228…
05-16 10:46:48	Will Dave Young be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xd49ea3…