Realized P&L (7d)
+$1.27K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.88K
Hit rate
30.2%
Resolved (7d)
21
Trades (7d)
46
993 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$5.49K
$99.1K lifetime
Avg / trade
$100
Open exposure
$26.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-28
last 11-07 10:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 95 days
Categories
Politics
50% 29% -$5,440
Other
46% 17% -$1,462
Tech
2% 45% -$170
Crypto
2% 25% +$164
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$28
Sports
0% 100% +$65
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
50 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No -7,725 -$6,982 98¢ $-7551 -$569 07-31 11:00
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No -3,933 -$3,114 97¢ $-3833 -$718 10-26 07:22
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No -3,346 -$2,896 92¢ $-3062 -$166 08-11 09:09
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes -1,694 -$1,450 98¢ $-1668 -$218 11-05 10:37
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No -1,547 -$1,042 82¢ $-1265 -$223 09-29 20:34
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -1,200 -$1,104 91¢ $-1097 +$7 11-06 16:18
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No -1,035 -$371 96¢ $-997 -$626 07-23 23:52
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? No -1,294 -$903 72¢ $-926 -$22 11-04 22:25
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -553 -$531 98¢ $-543 -$12 10-26 14:05
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? No -488 -$425 99¢ $-483 -$58 09-21 06:18
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -434 -$186 98¢ $-427 -$241 06-15 14:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes -472 -$373 88¢ $-418 -$45 11-07 07:51
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? No -407 -$374 97¢ $-397 -$22 08-24 03:32
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No -325 -$282 98¢ $-319 -$37 07-25 20:31
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes -8,708 -$1,036 4¢ $-318 +$718 08-26 20:17
Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No -514 -$421 58¢ $-301 +$121 10-25 17:41
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -634 -$301 45¢ $-285 +$16 06-24 12:16
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes -1,561 -$457 18¢ $-284 +$173 09-05 10:58
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No -317 -$244 86¢ $-273 -$29 10-13 14:27
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes -391 -$227 57¢ $-223 +$4 10-28 01:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes -625 -$344 35¢ $-216 +$127 09-28 07:53
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No -217 -$148 94¢ $-205 -$57 06-15 21:24
Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No -222 -$169 92¢ $-204 -$36 10-28 17:25
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No -317 -$257 61¢ $-193 +$63 10-06 21:54
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election? No -201 -$158 93¢ $-187 -$28 10-29 03:01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No -250 -$140 59¢ $-148 -$8 10-30 07:22
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? No -144 -$120 94¢ $-135 -$16 06-02 20:54
Israeli Knesset election annulled? No -81 -$70 97¢ $-79 -$9 10-29 13:11
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes -220 -$111 32¢ $-69 +$41 08-13 12:43
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes -66 -$55 99¢ $-65 -$10 11-04 11:20