Improbable-Feature — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$402

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

72.2%

Resolved

Trades

360

lifetime

Volume

$12.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 06-27 21:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

62% 100% +$423

Other

36% 0% $-21

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes		+73	$5	7¢	$5	+$0	06-01 11:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		-29	$-10	1¢	$-0	+$10	05-28 21:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	16	$2.0K	1,677	1,677	+0	open	—	03-06 13:23
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	25	$1.7K	2,727	2,727	+0	open	—	03-31 18:10
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	9	$1.3K	956	956	+0	open	—	04-03 12:33
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	11	$1.0K	742	742	+0	open	—	03-29 12:48
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	13	$774	1,596	612	+983	open	—	04-06 11:22
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	3	$592	649	638	+11	open	—	03-15 23:00
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	6	$528	888	888	+0	open	—	03-09 19:33
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$459	1,189	1,189	+0	open	—	02-26 12:35
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	4	$457	265	265	+0	open	—	02-23 15:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	29	$378	22,765	21,377	+1,388	open	—	04-14 17:30
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	6	$321	533	533	+0	open	—	03-30 12:35
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?	5	$283	789	789	+0	open	—	05-28 12:20
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	6	$254	2,231	2,231	+0	open	—	05-25 09:12
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	1	$242	504	0	+504	open	—	02-23 15:14
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	2	$238	139	139	+0	open	—	03-02 08:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	8	$181	1,799	1,799	+0	open	—	04-24 12:11
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	4	$177	113	113	+0	open	—	03-07 00:52
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$152	170	0	+170	open	—	02-18 14:15
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	10	$137	2,722	2,722	+0	open	—	05-29 20:22
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$130	217	0	+217	open	—	02-26 12:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$102	310	0	+310	Yes	+$208	04-23 14:12
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	1	$100	107	0	+107	open	—	02-18 14:15
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	2	$99	68	68	+0	open	—	03-02 21:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	5	$84	158	154	+4	open	—	04-30 19:22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	8	$69	194	194	+0	No	$-21	04-15 11:47
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	9	$58	623	0	+623	open	—	03-15 00:06
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	6	$53	732	0	+732	open	—	06-18 12:37
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	13	$51	1,605	0	+1,605	open	—	04-08 22:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$48	291	291	+0	Yes	+$2	04-10 13:46
btc updown 5m 1775264700	6	$48	49	47	+2	open	—	04-04 01:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 21:06:05	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	88	1¢	$1	0x3306b6…
06-18 12:37:50	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	136	1¢	$2	0x93eeee…
06-18 12:37:10	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	203	1¢	$2	0x08a610…
06-05 17:43:27	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x660b27…
06-04 11:32:18	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	98	10¢	$10	0x51cc9c…
06-04 00:44:15	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xc6da0b…
06-02 12:59:15	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	44	23¢	$10	0x6b9e7e…
06-02 12:57:30	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x91e46b…
06-01 18:55:56	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x008cf4…
06-01 11:38:38	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	73	7¢	$5	0xbea150…
05-30 12:10:52	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	37	14¢	$5	0xd647a9…
05-29 21:52:33	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xb080a1…
05-29 21:52:29	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x4eb348…
05-29 21:49:47	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	562	2¢	$10	0x5fc198…
05-29 21:46:48	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x1e7ef9…
05-29 21:45:35	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	317	3¢	$10	0xc42f61…
05-29 21:45:24	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x384a92…
05-29 20:24:16	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x1c90f0…
05-29 20:22:41	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	SELL	2,722	0¢	$3	0x461c02…
05-28 21:35:30	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	674	1¢	$10	0x753d8c…
05-28 21:34:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	29	36¢	$10	0x66fa33…
05-28 12:21:22	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	135	12¢	$16	0x151bc1…
05-28 12:20:45	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	529	1¢	$5	0xa90a53…
05-28 12:20:19	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?	Yes	SELL	120	19¢	$23	0xcafa3e…
05-25 19:30:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	19	2¢	$0	0x938d20…
05-25 19:30:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	SELL	192	0¢	$1	0xa27ea9…
05-25 19:29:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	SELL	98	1¢	$1	0xf4d0de…
05-25 19:29:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	SELL	28	3¢	$1	0x167ee4…
05-25 09:13:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	314	2¢	$5	0x2df1d9…
05-25 09:12:51	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	Yes	SELL	558	1¢	$6	0xda05da…
05-22 23:46:42	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x2cf73b…
05-22 23:45:28	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x568aef…
05-20 21:08:07	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	535	3¢	$15	0xea18a8…
05-20 21:07:35	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?	Yes	SELL	120	13¢	$16	0x0004b1…
05-20 12:54:17	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	319	6¢	$19	0x0ba7f3…
05-19 21:40:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x8d826d…
05-19 20:59:56	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x8ca64d…
05-19 13:58:47	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	175	6¢	$10	0x5ce15b…
05-19 13:53:38	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?	Yes	SELL	154	17¢	$26	0xb50e0a…
05-19 13:52:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	275	4¢	$10	0xf79661…
05-19 13:52:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x7a66aa…
05-19 13:51:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?	Yes	SELL	395	17¢	$68	0x5d12cd…
05-19 13:51:23	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,673	6¢	$93	0x324b23…
05-18 22:07:43	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x461fe5…
05-16 21:38:58	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xf76ffe…
05-16 20:50:31	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May?	Yes	BUY	134	7¢	$10	0xc13d95…
05-16 20:50:24	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May?	Yes	BUY	288	3¢	$10	0x8d7a57…
05-16 13:15:01	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	Yes	BUY	408	1¢	$5	0x81a209…
05-16 13:14:42	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xee7607…
05-16 13:13:55	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x863e75…
05-16 13:12:55	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?	Yes	BUY	789	19¢	$150	0x83710f…
05-16 13:11:19	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	Yes	BUY	1,170	9¢	$100	0x1f58a7…
05-15 17:35:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	Yes	BUY	302	10¢	$30	0x7aa6f3…
05-13 11:39:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	192	3¢	$5	0x0262ad…
05-13 11:39:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	98	5¢	$5	0x2afa27…
05-13 11:39:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x87639c…
05-13 11:38:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x23b82b…
05-13 11:27:19	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	Yes	BUY	255	2¢	$5	0x679df7…
05-11 23:51:58	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xf1d41e…
05-11 13:57:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x08c51f…
05-10 21:16:28	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	Yes	BUY	503	4¢	$20	0x14f694…
05-10 21:16:21	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	Yes	BUY	274	4¢	$10	0x6ca8e4…
04-30 19:22:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	SELL	119	0¢	$0	0x454700…
04-30 19:22:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	81	0¢	$0	0x2c5655…
04-24 12:13:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x401905…
04-24 12:11:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$0	0x10795d…
04-23 14:12:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0xf298ea…
04-22 11:13:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	19	9¢	$2	0x59ec41…
04-20 11:35:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xaf2474…
04-20 11:34:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0xf66151…
04-18 23:37:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x9ec4a2…
04-17 11:19:04	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?	Yes	SELL	127	3¢	$4	0xbc82af…
04-15 14:22:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x869e26…
04-15 11:47:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x679b4f…
04-15 11:47:22	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	109	10¢	$11	0xd08345…
04-14 19:19:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xd0539f…
04-14 19:18:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	Yes	SELL	98	1¢	$1	0xac02b2…
04-14 17:31:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?	Yes	BUY	87	15¢	$13	0x2fd053…
04-14 17:30:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,388	0¢	$7	0xc2f9f0…
04-14 12:34:39	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?	Yes	BUY	32	15¢	$5	0x53f2b3…
04-13 00:12:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xe27368…
04-13 00:12:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	SELL	9	34¢	$3	0x010130…
04-12 13:08:05	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	109	18¢	$20	0xdba911…
04-12 13:06:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	44	45¢	$20	0x13c815…
04-11 06:42:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0x58415a…
04-10 20:58:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x1350ab…
04-10 19:15:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,833	1¢	$29	0x69355c…
04-10 13:47:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0xaa666e…
04-10 13:46:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	291	9¢	$25	0xbff1e1…
04-10 10:57:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	7¢	$4	0x77edbd…
04-10 10:56:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	SELL	104	4¢	$4	0x882f73…
04-10 10:53:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x7405be…
04-10 10:47:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xf220a0…
04-10 10:47:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	79	10¢	$8	0xee5ca6…
04-10 10:46:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	251	8¢	$20	0xb7f4c2…
04-10 10:45:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	73	28¢	$20	0xf5707e…
04-10 10:34:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0xe70be7…
04-10 10:34:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,739	6¢	$96	0x4fbc48…
04-10 10:15:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	257	8¢	$20	0x0432f2…
04-10 10:12:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	6¢	$10	0x982f65…