Far-Probability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

81.7%

Resolved

152

Trades

760

lifetime

Volume

$2.01K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-22 05:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

71% 59% $-31

Sports

16% 59% +$3

Politics

6% 100% +$1

Crypto

5% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	+36	$4	12¢	$4	+$0	07-22 05:35
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	-1	$-1	86¢	$-1	$-0	06-26 05:01
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10	$1	8¢	$1	$-0	07-14 21:31
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	-3	$-2	18¢	$-0	+$1	06-10 14:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles	2	$123	66	66	+0	Athletics	+$3	05-09 21:57
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra	2	$83	43	43	+0	Coco Gauff	+$3	05-09 11:19
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces	2	$61	31	31	+0	Phoenix Mercury	+$1	05-09 21:24
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	10	$56	47	47	+0	open	—	03-29 16:24
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	8	$45	58	20	+38	open	—	03-09 07:34
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5	5	$44	77	77	+0	Under	$-33	05-10 20:45
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	5	$37	29	24	+5	open	—	07-18 18:19
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	6	$30	41	16	+25	open	—	07-19 05:29
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 6pt5	4	$29	22	22	+0	open	—	07-18 22:24
gc settle above 5100 jan 2026	3	$26	30	30	+0	open	—	01-26 11:30
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean	2	$21	11	11	+0	Jasmine Paolini	+$1	05-07 14:12
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals	2	$20	11	11	+0	Cleveland Guardians	+$0	05-07 20:11
Unicaja vs. AEK	2	$20	11	11	+0	AEK	+$0	05-07 20:21
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$20	17	17	+0	open	—	03-07 06:27
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	2	$19	77	77	+0	open	—	01-27 17:19
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	2	$17	29	29	+0	open	—	07-14 15:44
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova	1	$16	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 10:23
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	3	$16	12	12	+0	open	—	02-08 17:57
gc hit 4700 high jan 2026 398 168 413 627	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	01-20 16:17
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Sweden vs Slovenia	1	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	05-19 04:19
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	2	$14	23	23	+0	open	—	01-28 21:55
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies	7	$13	13	12	+1	Colorado Rockies	+$1	05-07 21:42
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$13	13	13	+0	open	—	01-10 22:39
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	5	$13	18	13	+5	Cavaliers	$-1	05-09 21:07
si hit 90 high jan 2026 157 295 494	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	01-14 04:55
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	2	$12	14	14	+0	open	—	07-11 21:39
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	2	$12	12	12	+0	open	—	07-14 19:23
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5	2	$12	7	7	+0	Over	+$2	05-13 19:41
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic	8	$12	136	33	+104	Iva Jovic	+$2	05-07 21:38
will solana dip to 90 in february 2026	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	02-04 11:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 05:35:16	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xf296bc…
07-22 05:33:49	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x82223b…
07-21 14:14:43	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0xee3a68…
07-21 04:03:48	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	9	61¢	$6	0x59546c…
07-19 05:29:31	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xa7eabd…
07-18 22:54:21	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 8pt5	Over	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x7e3216…
07-18 22:34:25	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x04a3dd…
07-18 22:24:43	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 6pt5	Over	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x46edff…
07-18 22:14:42	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 6pt5	Over	BUY	11	70¢	$7	0x8eefd3…
07-18 22:13:22	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 6pt5	Over	SELL	11	68¢	$8	0x9880b9…
07-18 21:52:27	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 6pt5	Over	BUY	11	39¢	$4	0x3f9872…
07-18 21:50:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 second half total 2pt5	Over	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x4761a7…
07-18 21:50:34	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 btts second half	Yes	SELL	11	48¢	$5	0xc508d3…
07-18 21:39:52	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 second half total 2pt5	Over	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x30783a…
07-18 21:38:21	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 first half total 1pt5	Over	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe57c9d…
07-18 21:21:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 btts second half	Yes	BUY	11	40¢	$4	0xc63654…
07-18 21:20:04	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 first half total 2pt5	Over	SELL	7	64¢	$5	0xb848b4…
07-18 21:07:00	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 first half total 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xee7c5d…
07-18 21:05:04	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0x985cb8…
07-18 20:22:10	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x970621…
07-18 20:21:12	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0xd0e60f…
07-18 20:20:27	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	SELL	16	55¢	$9	0xa31f79…
07-18 18:19:55	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x8095ca…
07-18 18:19:43	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xc5a412…
07-18 18:19:33	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x0387c3…
07-18 18:18:45	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	16	79¢	$12	0xca3ec9…
07-18 11:23:19	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 first half total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x597991…
07-18 11:17:33	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xd3e180…
07-17 19:47:54	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x02ecc1…
07-17 19:45:43	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x0327e0…
07-17 04:37:09	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	No	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0xa5c7f1…
07-16 19:46:37	will trump say make america great again during speech to the nation 20260713200621430	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x825493…
07-16 19:45:17	will trump say russia during speech to the nation 20260713200621434	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x402916…
07-16 19:45:05	will trump say israel or israeli during speech to the nation 20260713200621433	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x91eee2…
07-16 16:13:19	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x253c8b…
07-15 20:20:10	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts second half	Yes	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x24c046…
07-15 07:03:02	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts second half	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x3325f1…
07-15 07:02:38	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 first half team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xc5eeb3…
07-15 07:02:02	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts first half	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x584716…
07-14 21:37:14	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1a758a…
07-14 21:35:25	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x563293…
07-14 21:31:52	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x958936…
07-14 21:31:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa62414…
07-14 20:24:04	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts second half	Yes	SELL	8	56¢	$5	0xa13ec9…
07-14 19:23:01	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	SELL	12	62¢	$7	0x106a3c…
07-14 19:22:56	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts first half	Yes	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0xeca986…
07-14 15:49:11	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts second half	Yes	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0xbce2d2…
07-14 15:48:28	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts first half	Yes	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0xe1a572…
07-14 15:47:35	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x8e4a5e…
07-14 15:44:55	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	29	52¢	$15	0x4e0b7b…
07-12 14:10:37	atp broska giustin 2026 07 12	Florian Broska	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9ff3f1…
07-12 14:09:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0xea0031…
07-12 09:04:05	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	29	6¢	$2	0xdd7014…
07-11 23:31:11	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals jude bellingham gte3	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5377eb…
07-11 22:31:28	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	10	25¢	$3	0x572e61…
07-11 21:50:34	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xf65794…
07-11 21:49:08	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x279877…
07-11 21:43:32	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 first half total 0pt5	Over	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x68b0a7…
07-11 21:43:17	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa783c2…
07-11 21:41:13	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 second half team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xdca6f3…
07-11 21:39:41	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	14	53¢	$7	0xd7cf47…
07-11 19:30:07	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x1069dd…
07-11 18:56:10	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x37b639…
07-11 17:54:38	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x98733c…
07-11 17:52:38	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x94144f…
07-11 17:52:08	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8be318…
07-11 17:20:44	wta muchova noskova 2026 07 11	Karolina Muchova	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd58282…
07-11 17:18:07	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xcaa46a…
06-26 05:01:43	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x0a57b9…
06-15 11:47:24	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa0c622…
06-11 03:55:34	wta udvardy snigur 2026 06 10	Panna Udvardy	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xb2a5d3…
06-10 14:17:37	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xe9cef3…
06-07 15:12:01	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x17a5e8…
06-06 04:09:55	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x2c81b0…
06-05 07:21:36	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x0243e8…
06-05 07:21:31	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xa1e9da…
06-03 20:53:21	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xcc355d…
06-03 19:43:21	Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd9ae7f…
06-03 17:46:45	Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xefc3b0…
06-03 17:45:42	Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Perez/Schuurs vs Danilina/Krunic	Perez/Schuurs	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa477ca…
06-03 17:44:03	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x849e01…
06-03 17:43:55	Will Solana dip to $70 in June?	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x9d5cb4…
06-03 17:43:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	Yes	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0xea810a…
06-03 13:54:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xb3ab24…
06-03 13:53:15	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x0997b0…
06-03 13:53:03	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x908b62…
06-03 13:51:53	Will Solana dip to $70 in June?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x7b1382…
06-03 13:51:25	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3a14c9…
06-03 03:44:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x491f8d…
06-01 17:45:25	Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x899a35…
06-01 17:44:06	Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x8adcda…
06-01 16:28:35	Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x5716f2…
05-31 20:59:46	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0x53aed6…
05-31 20:59:32	Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xe1c093…
05-31 19:43:21	New York Yankees vs. Athletics	New York Yankees	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2b7a4f…
05-31 16:30:28	Poland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x3c4e19…
05-31 16:30:03	Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x099337…
05-31 15:42:34	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	3¢	$1	0xd8a5a1…
05-31 15:25:48	JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0xb45382…
05-31 15:17:22	T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan	Pakistan	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x182717…