Far-Probability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.7%

Resolved

152

Trades

688

lifetime

Volume

$1.74K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-07 15:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

69% 59% $-31

Sports

19% 59% +$3

Politics

6% 100% +$1

Crypto

5% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles	2	$123	66	66	+0	Athletics	+$3	05-09 21:57
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra	2	$83	43	43	+0	Coco Gauff	+$3	05-09 11:19
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces	2	$61	31	31	+0	Phoenix Mercury	+$1	05-09 21:24
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	10	$56	47	47	+0	open	—	03-29 16:24
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	8	$45	58	20	+38	open	—	03-09 07:34
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5	5	$44	77	77	+0	Under	$-33	05-10 20:45
gc settle above 5100 jan 2026	3	$26	30	30	+0	open	—	01-26 11:30
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean	2	$21	11	11	+0	Jasmine Paolini	+$1	05-07 14:12
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals	2	$20	11	11	+0	Cleveland Guardians	+$0	05-07 20:11
Unicaja vs. AEK	2	$20	11	11	+0	AEK	+$0	05-07 20:21
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$20	17	17	+0	open	—	03-07 06:27
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	2	$19	77	77	+0	open	—	01-27 17:19
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova	1	$16	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 10:23
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	3	$16	12	12	+0	open	—	02-08 17:57
gc hit 4700 high jan 2026 398 168 413 627	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	01-20 16:17
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Sweden vs Slovenia	1	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	05-19 04:19
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	2	$14	23	23	+0	open	—	01-28 21:55
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies	7	$13	13	12	+1	Colorado Rockies	+$1	05-07 21:42
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$13	13	13	+0	open	—	01-10 22:39
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	5	$13	18	13	+5	Cavaliers	$-1	05-09 21:07
si hit 90 high jan 2026 157 295 494	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	01-14 04:55
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5	2	$12	7	7	+0	Over	+$2	05-13 19:41
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic	8	$12	136	33	+104	Iva Jovic	+$2	05-07 21:38
will solana dip to 90 in february 2026	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	02-04 11:15
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$11	16	16	+0	open	—	02-28 20:11
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5	2	$11	7	7	+0	Under	+$1	05-10 19:34
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	3	$11	17	9	+8	open	—	03-17 19:46
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-27 20:39
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5	2	$11	7	7	+0	Over	+$1	05-11 19:05
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	02-23 15:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 15:12:01	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x17a5e8…
06-06 04:09:55	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x2c81b0…
06-05 07:21:36	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x0243e8…
06-05 07:21:31	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xa1e9da…
06-03 20:53:21	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xcc355d…
06-03 19:43:21	Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd9ae7f…
06-03 17:46:45	Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xefc3b0…
06-03 17:45:42	Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Perez/Schuurs vs Danilina/Krunic	Perez/Schuurs	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa477ca…
06-03 17:44:03	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x849e01…
06-03 17:43:55	Will Solana dip to $70 in June?	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x9d5cb4…
06-03 17:43:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	Yes	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0xea810a…
06-03 13:54:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xb3ab24…
06-03 13:53:15	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x0997b0…
06-03 13:53:03	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x908b62…
06-03 13:51:53	Will Solana dip to $70 in June?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x7b1382…
06-03 13:51:25	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3a14c9…
06-03 03:44:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x491f8d…
06-01 17:45:25	Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x899a35…
06-01 17:44:06	Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x8adcda…
06-01 16:28:35	Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x5716f2…
05-31 20:59:46	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0x53aed6…
05-31 20:59:32	Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xe1c093…
05-31 19:43:21	New York Yankees vs. Athletics	New York Yankees	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2b7a4f…
05-31 16:30:28	Poland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x3c4e19…
05-31 16:30:03	Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x099337…
05-31 15:42:34	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	3¢	$1	0xd8a5a1…
05-31 15:25:48	JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0xb45382…
05-31 15:17:22	T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan	Pakistan	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x182717…
05-31 15:16:54	Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets	Miami Marlins	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x6bef3f…
05-31 15:04:45	Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x94bd93…
05-31 15:02:49	T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan	Pakistan	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x7fc815…
05-31 13:48:07	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x8107d3…
05-31 13:47:29	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x272204…
05-31 04:56:20	World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland	Switzerland	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x96bb47…
05-30 14:08:42	World Championships: Canada vs. Finland	Finland	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x6ad958…
05-30 04:43:58	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x236f66…
05-30 04:40:42	Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa55211…
05-28 16:36:39	will bessent say cuba during press briefing	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x1a0b12…
05-28 16:36:01	Will Bessent say "President" 30+ times during Press Briefing?	No	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xffb096…
05-28 16:35:28	will bessent say hormuz or strait during press briefing	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x9051ea…
05-28 16:35:14	Will Bessent say "Commander in Chief" during Press Briefing?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x537ea3…
05-28 16:33:34	World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia	Latvia	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xc067fe…
05-28 16:32:22	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x59b07d…
05-28 08:27:18	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd78049…
05-28 04:30:35	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x72c3df…
05-28 04:29:28	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xd21d2d…
05-27 21:45:34	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xc09773…
05-27 19:22:48	Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xbb5187…
05-26 12:48:25	World Championships: Sweden vs. Slovakia	Slovakia	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbcd62b…
05-22 20:55:24	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xb24bcf…
05-21 19:43:08	Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Aleksandar Kovacevic	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1f4314…
05-21 15:54:04	World Championships: Denmark vs. Slovakia	Denmark	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x26fe86…
05-21 15:52:06	Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Aleksandar Kovacevic	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x129215…
05-21 15:51:44	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro	Shuai Zhang	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9520eb…
05-21 05:42:19	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xba8654…
05-20 19:25:42	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xe6b996…
05-20 11:46:13	Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic	Aleksandar Kovacevic	SELL	17	24¢	$4	0x5c5f7f…
05-20 11:45:59	GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Jil Teichmann	Jil Teichmann	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0x1979a0…
05-20 11:16:21	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Sweden vs Malta	Sweden	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xf5002c…
05-20 11:14:46	GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Jil Teichmann	Jil Teichmann	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x733564…
05-20 11:14:22	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar	Zdenek Kolar	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x37a18e…
05-20 11:13:56	Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik	Jakub Mensik	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xd82bb2…
05-20 11:13:36	Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic	Aleksandar Kovacevic	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x34f847…
05-19 16:13:38	Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud	Casper Ruud	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf30011…
05-19 05:55:18	Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud	Casper Ruud	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x83adbb…
05-19 04:19:29	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Sweden vs Slovenia	Sweden	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xae5123…
05-18 18:52:41	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xc56ee9…
05-18 18:51:54	Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x9169e7…
05-18 16:27:10	CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x9b6c5c…
05-18 16:25:18	Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x7ba257…
05-18 14:00:19	Canadiens vs. Sabres	Canadiens	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xd2df3a…
05-18 10:23:21	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova	Daria Kasatkina	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0xa558dc…
05-17 19:09:32	World Championships: Germany vs. Latvia	Latvia	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x2196b8…
05-17 19:09:00	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x94f17f…
05-17 17:51:27	World Championships: Germany vs. Latvia	Latvia	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb5b89f…
05-17 07:36:46	Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3c2787…
05-17 07:36:26	AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8139d5…
05-17 07:36:04	Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9cf8f5…
05-16 20:59:00	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina	Elina Svitolina	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xddc55c…
05-16 18:00:28	Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0x81f93d…
05-16 17:34:57	Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf77361…
05-16 17:34:03	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina	Elina Svitolina	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xda4207…
05-16 15:57:27	Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Zhang	Aleksandar Kovacevic	SELL	3	87¢	$3	0xcb04b5…
05-16 15:30:49	Geneva Open, Qualification: Daniel Galan vs Nishesh Basavareddy	Daniel Galan	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xa821c8…
05-16 15:30:07	GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Anastasia Zolotareva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva	Zhibek Kulambayeva	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb7aa71…
05-16 15:27:56	FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x81c7b1…
05-16 14:21:14	Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Zhang	Aleksandar Kovacevic	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xe5edfe…
05-16 14:20:21	FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xb47c81…
05-16 14:19:20	Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas	James Duckworth	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xbde888…
05-16 11:47:43	Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas	James Duckworth	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x344ca6…
05-16 09:30:03	Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x103314…
05-15 21:18:35	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x20b2b0…
05-15 18:52:47	Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x0abe3a…
05-15 18:52:36	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi	Casper Ruud	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc21541…
05-15 15:16:22	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x889284…
05-15 15:00:58	Parma: Camila Osorio vs Barbora Krejcikova	Barbora Krejcikova	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x369c58…
05-15 15:00:32	Mohammedan SC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x5343cb…
05-15 14:35:56	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi	Casper Ruud	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x9122b3…
05-15 10:36:04	Mohammedan SC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3e72b6…
05-15 10:34:47	Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x4c0ba0…