Jaded-Alpaca — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

703

lifetime

Volume

$134.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$191

Open exposure

$19

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-02 12:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

59% — —

Crypto

41% 100% +$4

Sports

0% — —

Politics

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+84	$10	12¢	$10	$-0	06-22 06:21
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	+53	$10	12¢	$7	$-3	06-22 06:22
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	+1	$1	95¢	$1	+$0	06-22 06:10
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	76¢	$1	$-0	06-22 05:42
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+1	$1	88¢	$1	$-0	06-22 06:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 140 164	13	$4.8K	2,486	2,486	+0	open	—	01-31 16:32
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 115 139	10	$4.7K	2,359	2,359	+0	open	—	01-26 16:33
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 165 189	11	$4.3K	2,234	2,234	+0	open	—	02-01 07:38
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 0 39	3	$3.5K	1,757	1,757	-0	open	—	02-08 11:07
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 0 39	2	$3.4K	1,713	1,713	+0	open	—	02-07 09:43
btc updown 15m 1769544900	4	$3.3K	1,841	1,835	+7	open	—	01-27 20:32
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 65 89	14	$3.1K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	01-27 07:08
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 340 359	5	$3.0K	1,561	1,561	+0	open	—	01-26 13:34
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 115 139	12	$2.8K	1,514	1,600	-86	open	—	02-04 16:08
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 165 189	2	$2.8K	1,451	1,451	+0	open	—	01-24 20:16
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 115 139	6	$2.7K	1,482	1,482	+0	open	—	01-24 13:06
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 420 439	3	$2.5K	1,331	1,331	+0	open	—	02-02 07:14
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 65 89	14	$2.5K	1,477	1,477	+0	open	—	02-04 10:39
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 40 64	5	$2.4K	1,161	1,336	-175	open	—	01-30 09:14
btc updown 15m 1769543100	7	$2.4K	1,225	1,225	+0	open	—	01-27 19:59
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 400 419	2	$2.4K	1,214	1,214	+0	open	—	01-27 19:52
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 420 439	6	$2.4K	1,286	1,286	+0	open	—	01-23 06:01
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 65 89	8	$2.2K	1,134	1,134	+0	open	—	01-26 06:42
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 90 114	3	$2.1K	2,406	2,406	+0	open	—	02-09 13:11
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	10	$2.0K	1,610	1,610	+0	open	—	02-06 01:59
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 320 339	2	$2.0K	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	01-29 20:11
btc updown 5m 1771927800	2	$2.0K	998	998	+0	open	—	02-24 10:14
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 90 114	3	$1.9K	948	948	+0	open	—	01-28 16:53
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 40 64	5	$1.8K	1,792	0	+1,792	open	—	02-08 18:06
btc updown 15m 1769682600	1	$1.7K	1,763	0	+1,763	open	—	01-29 10:43
btc updown 5m 1771894800	2	$1.7K	884	883	+0	open	—	02-24 01:02
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 300 319	2	$1.6K	1,709	0	+1,709	open	—	02-06 11:55
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 380 399	2	$1.6K	847	847	+0	open	—	01-22 19:04
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 90 114	27	$1.4K	946	946	+0	open	—	01-28 16:47
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 320 339	6	$1.4K	700	700	+0	open	—	02-03 05:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 12:36:10	wta doubles guomlad burrsto 2026 07 02	Guo/Mladenovic	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x50405a…
07-02 12:35:53	wta doubles chontik coccli 2026 07 02	Chong/Tikhonova	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xcfaa94…
07-02 06:59:10	atp jodar busta 2026 07 01	Pablo Carreno Busta	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x86a7d6…
07-02 06:57:52	itf mihalka nag 2026 07 02	Adrienn Nagy	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x4ba2b1…
07-02 06:56:46	itf mettrau korhone 2026 07 02	Marie Mettraux	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x944beb…
06-26 12:22:58	wta marcink keys 2026 06 26	Madison Keys	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x2cdfbe…
06-26 12:15:49	wta wa osaka 2026 06 26	Naomi Osaka	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x32eadb…
06-25 14:44:17	atp canas kwon 2026 06 25	Soon-Woo Kwon	BUY	162	99¢	$160	0x3b8e34…
06-25 14:41:25	atp faria sakamot 2026 06 25	Jaime Faria	SELL	145	100¢	$145	0xb26a1e…
06-25 14:33:16	atp faria sakamot 2026 06 25	Jaime Faria	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x44682e…
06-25 14:29:10	atp sweeny barrios 2026 06 25	Dane Sweeny	SELL	122	100¢	$122	0x5e1af0…
06-25 14:24:02	atp faria sakamot 2026 06 25	Jaime Faria	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0xfdd7f9…
06-25 14:19:37	atp skatov jacquet 2026 06 25	Timofey Skatov	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x661e97…
06-25 14:01:46	atp sweeny barrios 2026 06 25	Dane Sweeny	BUY	110	97¢	$107	0x8da36e…
06-25 13:57:17	atp sweeny barrios 2026 06 25	Dane Sweeny	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x72d9ca…
06-25 13:51:40	atp sweeny barrios 2026 06 25	Dane Sweeny	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4f9cd7…
06-24 01:27:26	mlb tex mia 2026 06 23	Miami Marlins	BUY	143	98¢	$140	0x999f49…
06-24 01:25:40	mlb lad min 2026 06 23	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xbba99c…
06-24 01:23:35	mlb mil cin 2026 06 23	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xbf7a67…
06-24 01:19:07	btc updown 5m 1782263700	Down	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc580e0…
06-24 01:14:31	btc updown 5m 1782263400	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x08d414…
06-24 01:14:25	btc updown 5m 1782263400	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa90ba3…
06-24 01:11:59	mlb sea pit 2026 06 23	Seattle Mariners	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xcbe116…
06-23 10:54:01	wta cross stoiana 2026 06 24	Mary Stoiana	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x7125ee…
06-23 10:51:10	wta annli alexand 2026 06 21	Ekaterina Alexandrova	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xd75776…
06-23 10:44:08	btc updown 5m 1782211200	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9d4136…
06-23 10:43:47	btc updown 5m 1782211200	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x550624…
06-23 10:40:58	btc updown 5m 1782211200	Down	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xa69c6b…
06-23 10:37:40	wta annli alexand 2026 06 21	Ekaterina Alexandrova	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xe16bf3…
06-22 06:34:49	bitcoin above 66k on june 22 2026	No	BUY	102	96¢	$98	0xd91d18…
06-22 06:32:04	wta doubles jianxu mihanic 2026 06 21	Mihalikova/Nicholls	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x04561a…
06-22 06:22:26	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x39f691…
06-22 06:21:56	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	84	12¢	$10	0xef3d65…
06-22 06:11:46	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x67855a…
06-22 06:10:28	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x9aa052…
06-22 05:42:16	Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x074290…
06-21 14:04:04	atp shelbay polmans 2026 06 21	Marc Polmans	BUY	96	68¢	$65	0xee7639…
06-21 14:01:29	atp shelbay polmans 2026 06 21	Marc Polmans	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x9a350e…
06-21 13:58:55	btc updown 5m 1782050100	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xf79728…
06-21 13:54:37	btc updown 5m 1782049800	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x378f31…
06-21 13:54:13	btc updown 5m 1782049800	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x446d4a…
06-21 13:53:53	btc updown 5m 1782049800	Up	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xa73391…
06-21 13:49:56	btc updown 5m 1782049500	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xbb41a3…
06-21 13:48:28	btc updown 5m 1782049500	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x194d93…
06-04 12:21:30	bitcoin above 58k on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0x540aa7…
06-04 12:13:24	atp donski winter 2026 06 03	Alexander Donski	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x77650e…
05-31 09:10:27	UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)	Belal Muhammad	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x5914a5…
05-31 09:08:27	Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Stefanos Sakellaridis	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x547427…
05-11 09:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x124b16…
05-11 09:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4314df…
05-11 09:43:44	Will Starmer say "U-turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x7c8081…
05-11 09:42:50	Will Starmer say "Appalling" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x501547…
05-11 09:42:03	Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xba9e52…
05-11 09:41:21	Will Starmer say "Political Stunt" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xea550e…
05-11 09:40:48	Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x3b1f30…
05-11 09:40:23	Will Starmer say "Apologize" or "Apology" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x2f3d86…
05-11 09:39:53	Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x70dfcc…
05-11 09:38:57	Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe0bb37…
05-11 09:38:05	Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2a13fa…
05-11 09:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x90da38…
05-11 09:13:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xece91b…
05-11 09:13:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x53bdae…
05-11 09:10:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xa36efd…
05-05 09:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0xc23d33…
05-05 09:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x6eabab…
05-03 18:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0x12b4eb…
05-03 18:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xff7c7e…
05-03 18:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0xf1abe6…
05-03 18:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x6cbb94…
05-03 18:22:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x2f6c50…
04-07 12:23:21	will starmer say oil or gas during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x854bbc…
04-07 12:23:11	will starmer say oil or gas during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x7a8154…
04-07 12:23:01	will starmer say public health during the next prime ministers questions event	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x80adfe…
04-07 12:22:51	will starmer say oil or gas during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x0e520e…
04-07 12:22:43	will starmer say urgent during the next prime ministers questions event	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6f9255…
04-07 12:22:25	will starmer say national security during the next prime ministers questions event	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x68c5d5…
04-07 12:22:11	will starmer say epstein during the next prime ministers questions event 195	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8cc144…
04-07 12:21:57	will starmer say nhs during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x93fbb1…
04-07 12:21:49	will starmer say deeply concerning during the next prime ministers questions event	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x976c07…
04-07 12:21:37	will starmer say shadow secretary during the next prime ministers questions event	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xda06fa…
04-07 12:21:09	will starmer say war during the next prime ministers questions event 878	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x98cab4…
04-07 12:21:01	will starmer say thank you 10 times during the next prime ministers questions event	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xcda3eb…
04-07 12:20:45	will starmer say mr speaker 30 times during the next prime ministers questions event 576	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xd51099…
04-07 12:20:21	will trump say six seven this week april 12	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xb6c192…
04-07 12:20:03	will trump say potato this week april 12	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x88f5fb…
04-07 12:19:43	will trump say predict or prediction or predicted this week april 12	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x1f6b13…
04-07 12:19:33	will trump say kharg island this week april 12	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x5e3985…
04-07 12:18:57	Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb56298…
04-07 12:18:45	Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3b2b57…
04-07 12:18:35	Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xce721b…
04-07 12:18:21	Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa12099…
04-07 12:17:53	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xd0b459…
04-07 12:17:39	Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x408818…
04-07 12:17:03	Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xc6a5b9…
04-07 12:16:31	will trump say jd or vance during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xcd4220…
04-07 12:16:15	will trump say fantastic during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xf9988b…
04-07 12:16:03	will trump say bully during events with rutte	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x179d97…
04-07 12:15:53	will trump say nuclear dust during events with rutte	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xb83539…
04-07 12:15:37	will trump say iraq during events with rutte	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x061b6e…
04-07 12:15:23	will trump say afghanistan during events with rutte	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xc5e478…