Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$719
Trades
79
Unique wallets
34
Liquidity
$692
Latest YES mid
25¢
Latest NO mid
75¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-13 18:32
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+70.7¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $1
vs crowd: 29% YES on $414)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $37 | $34 | +$3 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 5 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $43 | $53 | $10 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 21 | $38 | $205 | $167 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $31 | $81 | $50 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $2 | $6 | $4 |
| Median | 4 | $43 | — | +$43 |
| Below median | 3 | — | $1 | $1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| unranked | 17 | $38 | $204 | $166 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +103 | $31 | $31 | 7 | 06-11 22:31 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +49 | $34 | $34 | 2 | 06-09 07:11 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 0x343d…cd2e | No | +48 | $28 | $66 | 4 | 06-11 22:31 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +35 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 06-11 18:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | +13 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-11 22:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | +12 | $3 | $5 | 3 | 06-11 22:31 |
| Jumpy-Coat 0x37a0…ec34 | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-02 18:50 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-03 11:25 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | +4 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-13 18:32 |
| Cultured-Disregard 0x76a1…4652 | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 07:11 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 18:32:12 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 32¢ | $0 | 0x63cb26… |
| 06-13 18:32:12 | Subdued-Mrna 0xacbf…be73 | No | SELL | 1 | 68¢ | $1 | 0x63cb26… |
| 06-11 22:31:03 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x607923… |
| 06-11 22:31:03 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 35¢ | $18 | 0x607923… |
| 06-11 22:31:03 | bakayo33 - 9934 0x343d…cd2e | No | SELL | 21 | 84¢ | $18 | 0x607923… |
| 06-11 22:31:03 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | SELL | 96 | 30¢ | $29 | 0x607923… |
| 06-11 22:31:03 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 34¢ | $3 | 0x607923… |
| 06-11 22:31:03 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 35¢ | $5 | 0x607923… |
| 06-11 18:50:30 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 55¢ | $8 | 0xba4c3c… |
| 06-11 18:50:30 | (anonymous) 0x935c…19e7 | No | SELL | 20 | 47¢ | $9 | 0xba4c3c… |
| 06-11 18:50:30 | Worldly-Dump 0xc18b…3917 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 46¢ | $2 | 0xba4c3c… |
| 06-11 18:50:21 | Worldly-Dump 0xc18b…3917 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 46¢ | $2 | 0xfaeabd… |
| 06-11 18:50:21 | (anonymous) 0x2a30…9726 | No | SELL | 5 | 54¢ | $3 | 0xfaeabd… |
| 06-11 18:10:06 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xc011fc… |
| 06-11 18:10:06 | (anonymous) 0x2a30…9726 | No | SELL | 10 | 78¢ | $8 | 0xc011fc… |
| 06-11 18:10:06 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xc011fc… |
| 06-11 18:09:31 | (anonymous) 0x2ea5…a6e2 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0x11e602… |
| 06-11 18:09:31 | (anonymous) 0x158a…47a7 | No | SELL | 15 | 83¢ | $12 | 0x11e602… |
| 06-11 18:09:31 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x11e602… |
| 06-11 18:09:24 | (anonymous) 0x7c4f…96da | Yes | SELL | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x560c31… |
| 06-11 18:09:24 | (anonymous) 0x4f0b…e9d9 | No | SELL | 15 | 83¢ | $12 | 0x560c31… |
| 06-11 18:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x9c30…df21 | No | SELL | 15 | 83¢ | $12 | 0xd169e8… |
| 06-11 18:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x7c4f…96da | Yes | SELL | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xd169e8… |
| 06-11 18:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x9cb0…9778 | No | SELL | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x81cb49… |
| 06-11 18:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x7c4f…96da | Yes | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x81cb49… |
| 06-11 18:09:10 | (anonymous) 0x2ea5…a6e2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x010d77… |
| 06-11 18:09:10 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x010d77… |
| 06-11 18:08:36 | (anonymous) 0x7c4f…96da | Yes | BUY | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x4cfda1… |
| 06-11 18:08:36 | (anonymous) 0x935c…19e7 | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x083eb1… |
| 06-11 18:08:36 | (anonymous) 0x4f0b…e9d9 | No | BUY | 15 | 83¢ | $12 | 0x4cfda1… |
| 06-11 18:08:36 | (anonymous) 0x7c4f…96da | Yes | BUY | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xe39011… |
| 06-11 18:08:36 | (anonymous) 0x2a30…9726 | No | BUY | 15 | 83¢ | $12 | 0xe39011… |
| 06-11 18:08:36 | (anonymous) 0x7c4f…96da | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x083eb1… |
| 06-11 18:07:45 | (anonymous) 0x2ea5…a6e2 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x8abca2… |
| 06-11 18:07:45 | (anonymous) 0x2ea5…a6e2 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x013308… |
| 06-11 18:07:45 | (anonymous) 0x158a…47a7 | No | BUY | 15 | 83¢ | $12 | 0x013308… |
| 06-11 18:07:45 | (anonymous) 0x9c30…df21 | No | BUY | 15 | 83¢ | $12 | 0x98cfba… |
| 06-11 18:07:45 | (anonymous) 0x2ea5…a6e2 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x98cfba… |
| 06-11 18:07:45 | (anonymous) 0x9cb0…9778 | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x8abca2… |
| 06-11 12:48:57 | (anonymous) 0x0815…cf3c | Yes | SELL | 50 | 19¢ | $10 | 0x11c252… |
| 06-11 12:48:57 | (anonymous) 0xa4df…d3da | No | SELL | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x11c252… |
| 06-11 12:48:28 | (anonymous) 0xa4df…d3da | No | BUY | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0xf0cb26… |
| 06-11 12:48:28 | (anonymous) 0x87ce…b622 | No | SELL | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0xf0cb26… |
| 06-11 12:47:28 | (anonymous) 0xf74c…4b75 | No | SELL | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x3fef63… |
| 06-11 12:47:28 | (anonymous) 0x87ce…b622 | No | BUY | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x3fef63… |
| 06-11 12:46:54 | (anonymous) 0x0815…cf3c | Yes | BUY | 50 | 19¢ | $10 | 0x813ab3… |
| 06-11 12:46:54 | (anonymous) 0xf74c…4b75 | No | BUY | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x813ab3… |
| 06-10 20:06:24 | bakayo33 - 9934 0x343d…cd2e | No | SELL | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0x80fce8… |
| 06-10 20:06:24 | Subdued-Mrna 0xacbf…be73 | No | BUY | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0x80fce8… |
| 06-10 05:54:40 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x7664c5… |
| 06-10 05:54:40 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x7664c5… |
| 06-10 05:54:40 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 18¢ | $3 | 0x7664c5… |
| 06-09 19:44:36 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 32¢ | $8 | 0x261643… |
| 06-09 19:44:36 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 32¢ | $8 | 0x261643… |
| 06-09 19:11:57 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 26¢ | $4 | 0x502d17… |
| 06-09 19:11:57 | Victorious-Jug 0xff78…c169 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 26¢ | $4 | 0x502d17… |
| 06-09 07:11:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 24 | 70¢ | $17 | 0x284c0f… |
| 06-09 07:11:25 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 30¢ | $7 | 0x284c0f… |
| 06-09 07:11:21 | Cultured-Disregard 0x76a1…4652 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x33b9b1… |
| 06-09 07:11:21 | bakayo33 - 9934 0x343d…cd2e | No | BUY | 67 | 67¢ | $45 | 0x69cabb… |
| 06-09 07:11:21 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | BUY | 97 | 32¢ | $31 | 0x69cabb… |
| 06-09 07:11:21 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 22¢ | $0 | 0x69cabb… |
| 06-09 07:11:21 | bakayo33 - 9934 0x343d…cd2e | No | BUY | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0x33b9b1… |
| 06-09 07:11:21 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 32¢ | $1 | 0x69cabb… |
| 06-09 07:11:21 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 69¢ | $17 | 0x69cabb… |
| 06-07 10:03:13 | (anonymous) 0x6db0…f6d9 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 15¢ | $0 | 0x52b5c3… |
| 06-07 10:03:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 15¢ | $0 | 0x52b5c3… |
| 06-04 19:55:40 | (anonymous) 0xf146…8a4c | Yes | SELL | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0xff40ba… |
| 06-04 19:55:40 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0xff40ba… |
| 06-03 11:25:26 | Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xdef7a8… |
| 06-03 11:25:26 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 6 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xdef7a8… |
| 06-02 18:50:18 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 7 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x909add… |
| 06-02 18:50:18 | Jumpy-Coat 0x37a0…ec34 | No | BUY | 7 | 87¢ | $6 | 0x909add… |
| 06-01 21:02:36 | Victorious-Jug 0xff78…c169 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 31¢ | $5 | 0x7d6ee9… |
| 06-01 21:02:36 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 32¢ | $1 | 0x7d6ee9… |
| 05-30 23:12:20 | Impassioned-Source 0x2572…0a87 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x757f4f… |
| 05-30 23:12:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x757f4f… |
| 05-28 20:36:58 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 15¢ | $0 | 0xc07003… |
| 05-28 20:36:58 | (anonymous) 0xfb33…2937 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 15¢ | $0 | 0xc07003… |