Realized P&L
+$69
Unrealized P&L
-$2
Hit rate
97.0%
Resolved
21
Trades
869
lifetime
Volume
$27.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$32
Open exposure
$163
16 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 07-20 16:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Other
54% 80% $-18
Politics
32% 67% +$1
Sports
7% 100% +$89
Tech
4% 0% $-3
Crypto
2% 100% +$0
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
42 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +63 $45 78¢ $49 +$4 06-08 08:34
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +22 $20 92¢ $20 $-0 06-02 18:49
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? No +11 $10 92¢ $10 +$0 06-06 15:54
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +12 $9 76¢ $9 +$0 07-19 16:10
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +10 $8 88¢ $9 +$1 06-09 17:35
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No +8 $8 97¢ $8 +$0 06-07 14:38
Celonis IPO before 2027? No +9 $8 88¢ $8 $-0 07-12 15:30
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No +8 $7 92¢ $7 +$0 06-07 14:39
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $3M before 2027? No +7 $7 97¢ $7 +$0 06-06 15:53
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? No +8 $7 86¢ $7 $-0 07-12 15:29
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +8 $6 80¢ $6 +$0 07-01 20:41
WHOOP IPO before 2027? No +7 $6 82¢ $6 +$0 07-12 15:29
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +7 $6 82¢ $6 +$0 07-12 15:28
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +7 $6 76¢ $5 $-1 06-02 18:50
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes +10 $6 44¢ $4 $-1 07-12 15:31
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record? No +10 $7 16¢ $2 $-5 06-03 17:02