Scientific-Crazy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$70

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.8%

Resolved

Trades

5,389

lifetime

Volume

$28.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 08-12 22:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

58% 75% +$98

Crypto

25% — —

Other

15% 0% $-28

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 179 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	41	$1.1K	737	719	+17	open	—	06-16 03:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	202	$807	2,347	2,348	-0	open	—	06-27 20:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	37	$665	956	989	-33	open	—	05-31 01:40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	130	$640	1,196	1,196	+0	open	—	06-21 09:54
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	19	$527	313	313	+0	open	—	04-16 19:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	12	$450	232	232	+0	open	—	04-20 21:43
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	113	$420	358	353	+6	open	—	06-18 18:17
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	3	$415	500	500	+0	open	—	03-26 12:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	44	$406	1,709	294	+1,415	open	—	06-14 08:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	88	$393	217	341	-124	open	—	08-12 06:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	23	$387	288	288	+0	open	—	04-08 11:30
will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	22	$293	216	91	+124	open	—	07-08 22:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	51	$290	1,264	1,264	+0	open	—	04-06 17:30
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	10	$250	170	136	+34	open	—	04-03 22:06
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	9	$246	130	130	+0	open	—	04-30 22:56
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	22	$244	551	551	+0	open	—	04-21 21:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	24	$229	280	280	+0	open	—	04-07 22:46
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	7	$228	116	116	+0	open	—	04-29 19:14
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	4	$226	212	106	+106	open	—	06-29 23:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	18	$222	278	278	+0	open	—	04-07 22:39
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	8	$217	118	118	+0	open	—	04-12 19:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	22	$216	342	341	+0	open	—	05-27 17:25
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	35	$216	315	232	+83	open	—	04-22 00:06
will trump say six seven this week march 29	8	$214	109	109	+0	open	—	03-27 19:33
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	10	$212	223	167	+56	open	—	05-23 00:12
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	10	$212	185	185	+0	open	—	04-14 01:01
will the us invade iran by march 31	15	$203	167	167	+0	open	—	03-31 15:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	11	$198	124	124	+0	open	—	04-24 15:13
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	10	$182	207	151	+57	open	—	05-01 23:02
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	16	$175	255	0	+255	open	—	06-04 01:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 22:27:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2fcb51…
08-12 21:56:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xcede60…
08-12 21:52:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x2bbb2c…
08-12 21:51:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x88196b…
08-12 21:49:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xe9ec57…
08-12 21:49:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5d5d47…
08-12 19:57:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xef6bf7…
08-12 06:00:18	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xb08867…
08-12 06:00:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xa25cd2…
08-12 06:00:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	81¢	$7	0xa1529c…
08-12 05:35:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x916a9c…
08-12 04:13:06	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5e2c6c…
08-12 03:45:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x24e54f…
08-12 02:01:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc0d629…
08-11 23:10:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x414dde…
08-11 23:10:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0x26f26a…
08-11 22:40:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x38c25e…
08-11 22:40:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0x42e6e7…
08-11 21:50:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x7984ba…
08-11 21:50:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0x1712a2…
08-11 21:40:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x8aaa1d…
08-11 21:40:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0x910e90…
08-11 21:36:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xfe66eb…
08-11 21:36:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0xa621e1…
08-11 21:20:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x383cf0…
08-11 21:20:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0xefc3db…
08-11 21:11:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x6989e1…
08-11 21:11:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	9	82¢	$7	0xb72023…
08-11 21:10:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x69442e…
08-11 19:46:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x726b6f…
08-11 19:02:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x824bb7…
08-11 07:30:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x6fd475…
08-11 07:30:21	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0xf770ca…
08-11 07:30:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	9	83¢	$8	0x45fd6f…
08-11 07:30:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x7badb2…
08-11 07:30:15	will a european country take military action on iran by august 31 20260720005529606	Yes	SELL	63	1¢	$1	0xe45ad2…
08-10 23:21:34	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xc5c5e9…
08-10 23:19:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0xb1a8ac…
08-10 23:18:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xd5a1b3…
08-10 17:59:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc13b8b…
08-08 17:10:24	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x91e780…
08-07 03:43:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xfec4f8…
08-07 00:16:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0x5a67fa…
08-05 01:36:11	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x7d1f8a…
08-04 17:57:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x6e6d6a…
08-04 17:09:59	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xa0b1ab…
08-04 17:04:35	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0xc87a20…
08-04 01:40:51	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x328ebc…
08-03 13:12:06	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0x49ed6c…
08-02 03:51:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x762566…
08-02 02:11:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x600a60…
08-02 02:10:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xcdac8b…
08-02 02:10:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x5a5a0c…
08-02 02:10:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x14aece…
08-02 02:10:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x261cc2…
08-02 02:10:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x66ca0d…
08-02 02:10:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xb4e47b…
08-02 02:10:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x5ab334…
08-02 02:10:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x358821…
08-02 02:10:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x9eb83e…
08-02 02:10:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x60fd9b…
08-02 02:10:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xc8ca11…
08-02 02:10:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x35df34…
08-02 02:10:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x82f157…
08-02 02:10:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x30cb09…
08-02 02:09:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x832bdd…
08-02 02:09:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x601f2c…
08-02 02:08:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0x51cf35…
08-01 14:59:00	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x22d945…
08-01 07:16:41	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0x13ede0…
08-01 07:16:36	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0x853590…
08-01 00:23:23	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0xd41d36…
07-31 20:08:48	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x11853c…
07-31 20:07:05	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0xe2993b…
07-31 20:05:29	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0xb04730…
07-31 20:05:27	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0xdcefcf…
07-31 19:36:48	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x522382…
07-31 19:15:30	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xf3e6ed…
07-31 19:07:00	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x303c12…
07-31 18:58:09	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x367b75…
07-31 18:51:18	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x66bbb2…
07-31 18:33:06	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xe6e3ff…
07-30 16:38:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x5b2c06…
07-30 16:36:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xb71c9b…
07-30 16:32:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x8c378b…
07-30 16:14:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x6627e5…
07-30 16:09:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x08dd4e…
07-30 16:03:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xba5793…
07-30 15:41:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x9659ef…
07-30 15:40:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xf3e3f6…
07-30 15:39:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x07ae26…
07-30 15:33:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xd188b8…
07-30 15:29:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xb3dd71…
07-30 15:26:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x7347bc…
07-30 15:17:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xdc5705…
07-30 15:07:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xea93b4…
07-30 15:04:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x43ae43…
07-30 04:58:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0xcb99f8…
07-30 01:34:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x0a8957…
07-29 22:20:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	24	20¢	$5	0x69ed81…