Realized P&L
+$32
Unrealized P&L
+$9
Hit rate
81.9%
Resolved
246
Trades
1,368
lifetime
Volume
$23.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$2.36K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-24 18:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 70 days
Categories
Politics
50% 80% +$47
Other
48% 90% -$35
Tech
1% 100% +$18
Crypto
0% 100% +$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
34 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +609 $474 82¢ $503 +$29 10-24 18:42
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? No +300 $261 100¢ $299 +$38 09-26 10:33
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? No +191 $164 91¢ $174 +$10 10-11 05:39
Iran coup attempt by December 31? No +181 $159 90¢ $162 +$3 09-26 10:36
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +166 $128 84¢ $141 +$12 08-04 04:15
Natural Disaster in 2026? No +127 $92 94¢ $119 +$28 08-10 04:32
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No +130 $97 84¢ $109 +$12 10-11 18:09
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? No +91 $86 94¢ $85 -$1 09-27 08:20
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +80 $67 100¢ $80 +$13 09-27 07:07
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -79 -$75 96¢ $-76 -$1 06-07 04:36
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -71 -$62 97¢ $-69 -$7 05-17 20:10
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? No -65 -$57 94¢ $-61 -$4 05-21 11:14
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +60 $52 89¢ $54 +$1 10-04 08:57
Trump out as President before 2027? No -54 -$48 96¢ $-52 -$4 05-15 20:44
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +50 $27 90¢ $45 +$18 08-10 21:42
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No -43 -$44 92¢ $-40 +$4 10-04 05:54
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +60 $45 66¢ $40 -$5 07-10 13:41
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +40 $27 95¢ $38 +$11 07-04 19:51
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No +324 $195 10¢ $34 -$161 10-23 04:12
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes +30 $26 93¢ $28 +$2 07-05 04:02
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +25 $20 94¢ $24 +$4 05-17 07:23
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? No -24 -$22 96¢ $-23 -$2 06-11 02:34
Will US annex any territory in 2026? No -19 -$19 94¢ $-18 +$1 06-26 14:56
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +15 $15 96¢ $14 -$1 10-04 05:56
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +18 $5 81¢ $14 +$9 06-20 07:09
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No -14 -$13 96¢ $-14 $0 05-17 07:22
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +14 $12 94¢ $13 +$1 06-18 18:47
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -13 -$13 98¢ $-13 -$1 05-22 10:30
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -12 -$12 98¢ $-12 -$1 06-06 09:53
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No -12 -$11 96¢ $-11 $0 08-14 12:10