Realized P&L
+$65
Unrealized P&L
+$11
Hit rate
47.4%
Resolved
7
Trades
504
lifetime
Volume
$7.72K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$15
Open exposure
$1.19K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 18:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
60% 83% +$63
Other
39% 100% +$2
Crypto
0%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
65 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No +120 $112 94¢ $113 +$1 06-09 21:32
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -115 $-107 94¢ $-108 $-0 06-07 04:36
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No -94 $-93 98¢ $-92 +$1 06-07 12:04
Another Elon baby by June 30? No -75 $-72 98¢ $-74 $-1 06-08 16:27
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No -63 $-62 99¢ $-63 $-0 06-04 18:18
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No -63 $-61 98¢ $-62 $-0 06-08 14:09
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +65 $53 84¢ $55 +$2 06-03 19:36
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? No +60 $54 91¢ $55 +$1 06-08 22:36
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No -53 $-53 99¢ $-52 +$0 06-02 16:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No +55 $51 94¢ $51 +$1 06-05 11:57
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +50 $35 71¢ $36 +$1 06-09 18:17
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +36 $34 97¢ $34 +$0 06-07 18:31
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -33 $-33 99¢ $-33 +$0 06-06 16:57
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No -31 $-31 99¢ $-30 +$0 06-08 15:46
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No +30 $29 98¢ $29 +$0 06-02 04:20
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +30 $28 98¢ $29 +$1 06-02 15:25
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +30 $28 94¢ $28 +$0 06-01 18:36
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No +30 $25 89¢ $27 +$2 06-09 18:06
Will US annex any territory in 2026? No -22 $-20 92¢ $-20 +$0 06-09 07:33
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? No +25 $20 81¢ $20 +$0 06-10 00:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No +20 $19 98¢ $20 +$0 06-02 16:24
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No +20 $19 97¢ $19 +$1 06-07 05:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +20 $19 97¢ $19 +$0 06-09 21:18
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No +20 $18 96¢ $19 +$1 06-07 12:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +25 $17 72¢ $18 +$1 06-04 18:41
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +20 $17 84¢ $17 $-0 06-01 15:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +20 $16 82¢ $16 +$0 06-09 16:39
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +20 $16 80¢ $16 +$0 06-01 17:35
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No +20 $15 79¢ $16 +$0 06-03 11:25
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +20 $15 74¢ $15 $-0 06-01 16:26