Fragrant-Firewall — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$881

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

746

lifetime

Volume

$238.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$320

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-27 17:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

56% 0% $-875

Other

31% 0% $-6

Crypto

7% — —

Tech

6% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	28	$16.5K	9,043	9,043	+0	open	—	04-22 06:54
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	5	$15.4K	7,986	7,986	+0	open	—	03-01 01:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	7	$13.5K	12,999	1,984	+11,014	open	—	03-02 00:21
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	12	$12.9K	6,639	6,639	+0	open	—	03-27 13:46
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	20	$10.7K	6,797	6,797	+0	open	—	03-09 08:33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	22	$10.1K	5,885	5,591	+294	open	—	06-16 16:26
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	7	$8.2K	2,842	5,822	-2,980	open	—	07-22 20:47
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	16	$7.6K	4,837	4,837	+0	open	—	06-17 14:52
will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	6	$7.4K	3,764	3,764	+0	open	—	07-23 08:13
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	5	$6.6K	4,000	4,000	-0	open	—	06-12 05:26
ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	5	$6.6K	3,328	3,328	+0	open	—	02-25 10:40
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	3	$4.9K	1,800	3,400	-1,600	open	—	07-01 07:25
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	43	$4.5K	2,800	2,800	+0	open	—	03-22 02:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	3	$4.1K	0	4,246	-4,246	open	—	06-11 15:44
khamenei seen in public by march 4 594 341 111	3	$4.0K	2,013	2,013	+0	open	—	03-01 01:48
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	4	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-17 01:43
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$3.9K	2,964	1,304	+1,660	open	—	07-27 17:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	17	$3.9K	4,582	4,582	+0	open	—	04-20 22:06
will base launch a token by september 30 2026	4	$3.8K	2,671	1,181	+1,490	open	—	07-27 17:04
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$3.7K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	03-05 06:29
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	8	$3.6K	2,632	2,632	+0	open	—	07-11 19:53
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase before 2027?	1	$3.5K	3,483	0	+3,483	open	—	01-30 16:18
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	46	$3.5K	7,303	7,303	+0	open	—	06-17 06:39
putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	5	$3.2K	1,624	1,624	+0	open	—	07-22 14:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	10	$3.0K	1,900	1,900	+0	open	—	04-21 00:47
netanyahu out by march 31 854	6	$2.6K	1,340	1,340	+0	open	—	03-27 01:39
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$2.5K	2,648	0	+2,648	open	—	07-07 18:50
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	18	$2.4K	2,300	2,283	+17	open	—	06-01 04:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	8	$2.2K	1,827	3,373	-1,546	Yes	$-875	02-09 21:46
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	6	$2.2K	2,220	0	+2,220	open	—	05-31 19:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-28 17:15:05	will trump say nobody like him during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556638	No	BUY	300	68¢	$204	0x47b5ff…
07-28 17:04:35	will trump say security during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556649	Yes	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0x6e02a7…
07-28 17:02:34	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556652	No	BUY	254	99¢	$252	0x3b615a…
07-28 16:56:02	will trump say security during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556649	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x863499…
07-28 16:52:47	will trump say patriot during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556643	Yes	SELL	300	69¢	$207	0x432b13…
07-28 16:47:07	will trump say patriot during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556643	Yes	BUY	300	70¢	$210	0x891f1d…
07-28 16:45:41	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556652	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x6763f4…
07-27 17:04:43	will base launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	310	97¢	$300	0x66d7b3…
07-27 17:04:28	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	87¢	$54	0x36373a…
07-27 17:04:04	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,304	91¢	$1,187	0x441c12…
07-24 13:24:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	SELL	500	48¢	$240	0x9ef6fc…
07-24 13:23:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	SELL	454	47¢	$213	0x89ba00…
07-24 13:14:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0xba7588…
07-24 13:14:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	SELL	42	47¢	$20	0x1c2f4c…
07-24 09:58:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	600	50¢	$300	0x90ceb3…
07-24 09:43:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	185	51¢	$94	0xfbc157…
07-24 09:42:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xcdfbc2…
07-24 09:41:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	213	51¢	$109	0xafced9…
07-24 09:26:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	357	21¢	$75	0xf77ca0…
07-24 09:24:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	24	21¢	$5	0x06b4f5…
07-24 09:23:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x978be7…
07-24 09:23:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0xc853a0…
07-24 09:22:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	143	21¢	$30	0xc50736…
07-24 09:18:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	260	21¢	$55	0xb8148a…
07-24 09:03:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	800	21¢	$168	0xa72012…
07-23 11:17:15	will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by september 30 20260720194516250	No	BUY	999	97¢	$971	0x7ee660…
07-23 08:18:01	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	830	96¢	$800	0xb1fb9e…
07-23 08:17:24	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,630	92¢	$1,500	0x1b8964…
07-23 08:13:52	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30 20260722053445710	Yes	BUY	958	81¢	$776	0xc689e9…
07-23 08:13:36	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	SELL	3,764	98¢	$3,699	0x9bc889…
07-23 08:11:54	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	115	42¢	$48	0xed3309…
07-23 00:49:43	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30 20260722053445710	Yes	SELL	300	80¢	$240	0x98073a…
07-22 20:47:24	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	BUY	411	99¢	$408	0x065289…
07-22 20:47:15	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	641	96¢	$612	0x37a3d7…
07-22 20:46:36	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	450	96¢	$430	0xed86d1…
07-22 15:14:36	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	675	97¢	$652	0x052fa4…
07-22 15:14:34	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	105	91¢	$96	0x73d4e4…
07-22 15:13:30	will base launch a token by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1,181	98¢	$1,156	0x67c899…
07-22 15:08:36	will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by september 30 20260720194516250	No	BUY	374	96¢	$358	0x173a6e…
07-22 14:47:54	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	SELL	812	100¢	$809	0x40bf30…
07-22 12:11:03	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30 20260722053445710	Yes	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0xa69a46…
07-22 12:05:54	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	BUY	71	99¢	$71	0x5a8748…
07-22 12:00:30	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	BUY	1,429	99¢	$1,419	0x2d3093…
07-22 11:13:09	will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by december 31 20260720194516249 193	No	SELL	80	95¢	$76	0x6b2e95…
07-22 10:45:25	will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by december 31 20260720194516249 193	No	BUY	326	92¢	$300	0x035970…
07-22 10:43:42	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	BUY	703	100¢	$700	0x9ac4fc…
07-22 10:43:25	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	SELL	812	100¢	$809	0xac29e1…
07-22 10:21:21	will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by december 31 20260720194516249 193	No	BUY	330	91¢	$300	0xda9691…
07-22 10:20:46	will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by december 31 20260720194516249 193	No	BUY	440	91¢	$400	0xd974b8…
07-22 10:20:10	will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by september 30 20260720194516250	No	BUY	417	96¢	$400	0x1ad8de…
07-22 10:19:34	will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by september 30 20260720194516250	No	BUY	312	96¢	$300	0xa6b33e…
07-22 10:17:09	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	BUY	1,150	100¢	$1,144	0x376f4d…
07-19 02:23:13	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1,731	96¢	$1,660	0x9ba58c…
07-11 19:53:32	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0xb03248…
07-11 19:53:32	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	252	63¢	$159	0x335a4a…
07-11 19:53:31	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	443	63¢	$279	0x6fe12a…
07-08 09:38:05	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	436	99¢	$431	0x8d30ef…
07-08 07:26:37	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	269	99¢	$266	0xc37ca2…
07-07 21:28:56	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	600	83¢	$498	0xfaf726…
07-07 21:28:34	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	156	84¢	$131	0x149414…
07-07 19:27:14	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x522f43…
07-07 19:20:10	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	111	65¢	$72	0x4139ed…
07-07 19:18:41	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0xaed7a9…
07-07 19:15:25	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	587	65¢	$382	0x7a6bb0…
07-07 18:53:46	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	22	84¢	$18	0x0334f4…
07-07 18:52:22	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	297	84¢	$249	0x44b221…
07-07 18:51:49	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	495	84¢	$415	0xfff0a2…
07-07 18:50:29	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	2,648	95¢	$2,520	0xf7682e…
07-07 18:47:32	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	919	99¢	$911	0xc60c51…
07-07 18:43:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	859	62¢	$533	0x5bcd1d…
07-07 18:42:37	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	1,235	61¢	$754	0x47cbce…
07-07 04:22:52	base fdv above 500m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	367	76¢	$279	0xb8c521…
07-04 22:25:40	will base launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	792	98¢	$773	0xdd43eb…
07-04 22:21:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,333	90¢	$1,200	0x26fdfa…
07-04 22:20:44	will base launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1,570	98¢	$1,531	0x7ab12d…
07-04 22:20:10	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	419	96¢	$400	0xb53eef…
07-04 22:19:38	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	837	96¢	$800	0x901f83…
07-03 06:06:52	base fdv above 500m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0x852bc9…
07-02 11:27:38	base fdv above 500m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	27	76¢	$21	0x1a9db6…
07-02 10:31:10	base fdv above 500m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	16	76¢	$12	0x4ba4da…
07-02 10:31:07	base fdv above 500m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	6	76¢	$4	0x29ea54…
07-01 07:25:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2,600	95¢	$2,470	0xdc6c20…
07-01 00:24:01	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	1,053	76¢	$800	0x1c361d…
07-01 00:20:19	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	1,579	76¢	$1,200	0x8fe359…
07-01 00:19:59	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1,154	94¢	$1,088	0x246a43…
06-30 23:37:41	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,010	100¢	$1,009	0x6f474d…
06-30 23:34:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138 771 819 232	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x374b5a…
06-30 23:34:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138 771 819 232	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0417f8…
06-30 23:34:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x8b0883…
06-30 23:34:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xca44cd…
06-30 23:34:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662 752 464 953	No	SELL	39	0¢	$0	0xa190e6…
06-30 23:34:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662 752 464 953	No	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x3283bf…
06-30 22:29:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662 752 464 953	No	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0x725162…
06-30 22:29:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662 752 464 953	No	BUY	27	1¢	$0	0x88294f…
06-29 18:37:59	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	115	84¢	$97	0x38eaf0…
06-29 18:37:52	will trump meet with vladimir putin in july 2026 20260626153701909	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xccb348…
06-29 18:37:43	will trump meet with xi jinping in july 2026 20260626153701907	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xc416f1…
06-29 18:37:14	will trump meet with mohammed bin salman in june 2026	No	BUY	168	100¢	$168	0x6859ac…
06-29 18:37:04	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in june 2026	No	BUY	169	100¢	$169	0xe61317…
06-29 18:36:55	will trump meet with kim jong un in june 2026	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x09d700…