Cloudy-Naming — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.19K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.25K

Hit rate

79.0%

Resolved

245

Trades

1,056

lifetime

Volume

$162.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$154

Open exposure

$41.8K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-23 14:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Other

49% 62% +$1,507

Politics

41% 61% +$104

Sports

9% 55% -$4,917

Crypto

0% 100% +$165

Tech

0% 0% -$45

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	-10,772	-$10,671	97¢	$-10422	+$249	08-19 16:24
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+8,888	$8,355	98¢	$8.7K	+$387	09-14 12:36
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+7,776	$7,037	94¢	$7.3K	+$311	10-13 17:56
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+6,655	$6,422	98¢	$6.5K	+$96	09-29 02:18
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-3,666	-$3,468	98¢	$-3595	-$126	05-14 11:37
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	-3,421	-$3,295	97¢	$-3313	-$18	09-30 06:58
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	+6,857	$2,346	24¢	$1.6K	-$735	05-29 18:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+1,320	$967	12¢	$152	-$816	07-05 16:38
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	+4,974	$638	1¢	$55	-$583	07-27 05:09
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	+206	$19	3¢	$6	-$12	08-03 03:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump out as President before 2027?	34	$22.1K	6,554	17,326	-10,772	open	—	08-19 16:24
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$8.4K	8,888	0	+8,888	open	—	09-14 12:36
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	7	$7.8K	4,030	4,030	+0	Yes	+$212	05-11 07:33
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	32	$7.0K	7,776	0	+7,776	open	—	10-13 17:56
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	73	$7.0K	2,251	5,466	-3,214	open	—	09-30 06:58
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	12	$6.9K	3,815	3,815	+0	open	—	07-20 02:57
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$6.4K	6,655	0	+6,655	open	—	09-29 02:18
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	2	$5.7K	6,025	0	+6,025	Yes	+$323	09-21 04:03
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	4	$5.1K	2,888	2,888	+0	No	+$29	05-05 11:10
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	3	$4.9K	2,496	2,496	+0	No	+$28	03-04 16:08
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	21	$3.8K	5,654	0	+5,654	Knicks	-$3,810	06-11 03:27
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$3.5K	0	3,666	-3,666	open	—	05-14 11:37
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	7	$3.4K	4,133	0	+4,133	Yes	+$690	04-01 15:27
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	30	$3.4K	0	3,502	-3,502	No	-$76	05-01 03:58
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	3	$3.4K	3,535	0	+3,535	Spurs	+$170	06-09 03:20
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	2	$3.2K	1,675	1,675	+0	No	+$63	04-02 05:10
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	68	$2.3K	6,857	0	+6,857	open	—	05-29 18:08
Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first?	11	$2.2K	2,754	0	+2,754	Yes	+$509	07-19 21:08
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes 281	6	$2.2K	2,410	0	+2,410	No	+$15	01-25 02:10
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	2	$1.8K	827	1,493	-666	Yes	+$486	02-28 09:16
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$1.7K	1,062	1,062	+0	Yes	+$433	04-08 08:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	6	$1.7K	2,286	0	+2,286	Yes	+$614	07-29 15:30
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$1.6K	2,019	0	+2,019	No	-$1,552	10-23 14:59
jpm quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 13 2026 4pt94	3	$1.4K	2,290	0	+2,290	No	-$1,381	01-13 03:29
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	1	$1.3K	1,666	0	+1,666	France	+$375	07-09 14:36
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	5	$1.2K	1,954	0	+1,954	Argentina	+$790	07-07 17:43
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	2	$1.1K	1,154	0	+1,154	Spain	+$103	07-19 21:47
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 5pt5	4	$1.0K	1,155	0	+1,155	Under	+$148	07-07 18:02
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$1.0K	1,419	0	+1,419	Yes	-$1,002	05-29 14:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$967	1,320	0	+1,320	open	—	07-05 16:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 14:59:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	77¢	$1,538	0xdfb410…
10-23 14:57:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$14	0xae29b8…
10-13 17:56:06	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	94	90¢	$84	0x473b64…
10-13 15:40:46	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	86	90¢	$77	0xb72fce…
10-13 15:39:49	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x7d0b7b…
10-13 15:39:49	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x370411…
10-13 14:42:52	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xa4e71d…
10-13 14:42:50	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xfd7d2c…
10-13 14:42:50	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xdf95aa…
10-13 13:24:35	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	800	90¢	$720	0x0004f6…
10-13 13:10:22	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa7d71a…
10-13 13:08:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x06400c…
10-13 10:09:55	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x3001e1…
10-13 08:35:08	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x2412fa…
10-13 08:34:52	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	8	90¢	$8	0xc9ee8d…
10-13 08:29:02	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0x5e61c2…
10-13 08:27:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x3f164b…
10-13 08:25:53	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x02a324…
10-13 08:05:47	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xafbdc4…
10-13 08:03:16	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	75	90¢	$68	0xacca95…
10-13 06:01:36	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xcae3f2…
10-13 05:30:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x7ed4fc…
10-13 04:09:15	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x1e91f7…
10-13 02:59:11	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0xe07baf…
10-13 02:01:42	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x057998…
10-13 01:32:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	159	90¢	$143	0x5ff02f…
10-13 01:02:08	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x6b3129…
10-13 00:04:54	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	55	90¢	$49	0x05ae8d…
10-12 23:08:27	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x095392…
10-12 23:08:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	8	90¢	$8	0x674e8b…
10-12 21:56:38	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	125	90¢	$112	0x809800…
10-12 21:56:35	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x3c9268…
10-12 21:56:15	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	727	90¢	$655	0xcfd997…
10-09 14:59:48	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	3,888	91¢	$3,538	0x3e8246…
09-30 06:58:26	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1,800	95¢	$1,710	0x43294f…
09-29 02:18:26	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	6,655	96¢	$6,422	0x222068…
09-21 04:03:39	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0x3a7206…
09-21 01:09:40	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	5,915	95¢	$5,598	0xbe4ebc…
09-14 12:36:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8,888	94¢	$8,355	0xdb9581…
08-19 16:24:18	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	8,663	95¢	$8,230	0x3fa044…
08-14 10:53:39	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	45	90¢	$41	0x78cf16…
08-04 06:02:21	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,155	91¢	$1,051	0x860497…
08-04 02:55:50	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	215	91¢	$196	0xb91d6a…
08-03 16:39:30	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe20c6a…
08-03 11:10:21	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x84e4ce…
08-03 10:11:14	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	125	91¢	$114	0x60028b…
08-03 10:11:06	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x32e5d7…
08-03 03:57:03	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	301	66¢	$198	0x2c9707…
08-03 03:56:47	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	132	65¢	$86	0x7d0150…
08-03 03:05:39	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	206	9¢	$19	0x63f42d…
07-29 18:24:20	will warsh say restrictive during july press conference 20260720204109047	Yes	BUY	37	55¢	$21	0xf539bb…
07-29 18:14:57	will warsh say restrictive during july press conference 20260720204109047	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x65c404…
07-29 17:05:17	will warsh say restrictive during july press conference 20260720204109047	Yes	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x017a14…
07-29 16:43:27	will warsh say restrictive during july press conference 20260720204109047	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x07a685…
07-29 16:24:20	will warsh say restrictive during july press conference 20260720204109047	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xeca7cb…
07-29 15:30:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	133	73¢	$97	0x223c53…
07-29 15:27:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	266	74¢	$196	0x9e1eb4…
07-29 15:24:48	will warsh say president during july press conference 20260720204109049	Yes	BUY	36	48¢	$17	0x71d15b…
07-29 15:10:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$38	0xc387ef…
07-29 15:10:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	616	74¢	$458	0x5bddfb…
07-29 05:38:38	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	166	90¢	$149	0xd0e50e…
07-29 05:09:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	77¢	$257	0xdba2e9…
07-27 05:09:27	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xd323a0…
07-27 04:35:07	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xb09225…
07-26 22:58:12	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0xc96dec…
07-26 22:34:34	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xf0fac6…
07-26 20:01:01	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xc462f5…
07-26 19:57:12	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x43d5b1…
07-26 19:53:04	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x30a7dc…
07-26 19:41:28	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xf06c02…
07-26 19:04:28	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x23b8bb…
07-26 18:57:48	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xdf6b7e…
07-26 18:29:52	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x979816…
07-26 17:54:07	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xb90e10…
07-26 17:35:00	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x108666…
07-26 17:34:06	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0xad795a…
07-26 17:26:39	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xa0d152…
07-26 17:18:58	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x00ca32…
07-26 17:02:09	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x21d5e5…
07-26 16:49:22	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x58bb95…
07-26 16:28:36	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x100b96…
07-26 16:27:49	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x4d3ea5…
07-26 16:24:55	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xb1ee43…
07-26 16:15:22	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0xc0d977…
07-26 16:14:27	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xec12df…
07-26 15:55:12	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xcb2093…
07-26 15:54:36	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x2a3fab…
07-26 15:37:01	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x3fdb9c…
07-26 15:03:18	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xe5c1a9…
07-26 14:49:36	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xfa7957…
07-26 14:43:10	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x35ca6d…
07-26 14:34:52	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x2ddf4f…
07-26 14:25:40	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xcd86df…
07-26 14:23:54	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xcc4b52…
07-26 14:09:00	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x56dad4…
07-26 13:03:07	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xf0ccdc…
07-26 12:59:51	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xac5ed9…
07-26 12:50:31	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xfba2db…
07-26 12:48:15	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x2e9c42…
07-26 12:19:51	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x06df4a…