Lost-Crest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$45

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

73.8%

Resolved

257

Trades

943

lifetime

Volume

$18.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$74

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 08-07 17:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Politics

77% 67% +$115

Other

21% 67% +$65

Sports

1% 25% -$70

Tech

0% 33% -$29

Crypto

0% 0% -$36

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	-83	-$55	88¢	$-73	-$18	05-17 08:34
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	-57	$0	2¢	$-1	-$1	07-29 03:35
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$5	92¢	$0	+$5	06-15 17:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 10	22	$546	712	712	+0	Yes	-$49	03-13 11:02
will iran strike israel on march 6	26	$488	372,609	118	+372,491	No	-$395	03-11 23:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$356	231	287	-56	No	+$50	06-16 16:24
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	15	$279	190	190	+0	Yes	+$19	03-23 07:52
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	22	$271	713	713	+0	No	+$7	03-17 02:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	5	$239	192	192	+0	Yes	+$28	06-11 03:23
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	14	$236	145	145	+0	Yes	+$36	06-10 11:37
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	20	$236	284	284	+0	No	+$4	03-28 17:06
iran closes its airspace by june 15	5	$235	165	165	+0	Yes	+$35	06-07 21:00
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$230	153	153	+0	Yes	+$30	06-07 20:59
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	4	$211	117	117	+0	No	+$9	07-14 17:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	4	$210	164	164	+0	No	+$10	06-18 02:05
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	14	$208	387	387	+0	No	+$5	03-17 18:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$207	218	218	+0	open	—	08-01 01:19
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	4	$206	133	133	+0	No	+$6	07-31 09:49
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	5	$206	148	148	+0	open	—	07-29 16:21
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	14	$201	677	377	+300	No	-$12	06-01 09:19
will uae strike iran by march 31	15	$195	350	350	+0	No	-$6	03-18 20:31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$190	230	230	+0	open	—	07-18 02:39
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$187	161	61	+100	Yes	-$77	06-14 18:07
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$185	150	150	+0	open	—	08-07 17:57
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	8	$182	413	413	+0	No	+$50	03-23 11:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$180	132	109	+23	Yes	-$54	06-07 19:05
iran closes its airspace by june 22	4	$169	109	109	+0	Yes	+$29	06-07 20:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	8	$168	132	132	+0	Yes	+$8	04-05 18:42
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	9	$164	108	108	+0	open	—	06-15 17:38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	6	$154	150	150	+0	Yes	+$11	04-08 08:33
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	12	$148	94	94	+0	Yes	+$8	03-08 23:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$145	121	121	+0	No	-$15	05-24 15:59
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	9	$141	104	104	+0	Yes	+$3	03-31 21:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 17:57:28	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	SELL	145	8¢	$12	0x88825c…
08-07 17:57:25	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	SELL	37	84¢	$31	0xca02ee…
08-07 17:57:21	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	45¢	$32	0x079605…
08-02 00:35:06	Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat?	Yes	SELL	232	2¢	$6	0x57addf…
08-01 01:19:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	102	51¢	$52	0x77ac78…
07-31 21:08:29	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	28	87¢	$25	0x877dee…
07-31 09:49:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	62	83¢	$51	0xf1423c…
07-30 16:10:09	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x4c10ec…
07-30 16:10:00	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0xcf728a…
07-30 10:59:56	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	11	87¢	$9	0x13be41…
07-30 10:58:48	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0xa6a8d5…
07-29 16:21:53	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	71	71¢	$51	0xecc03d…
07-29 03:35:36	Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	57	1¢	$0	0x1699ea…
07-29 03:35:26	Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb1bbb8…
07-29 03:34:57	Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	38¢	$8	0x96f5ab…
07-25 23:23:48	Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	51¢	$9	0xe991c4…
07-24 04:33:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	57	0¢	$0	0x4f64fc…
07-24 04:33:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	37	24¢	$9	0x7acf0e…
07-24 04:33:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	SELL	26	44¢	$11	0xabe82b…
07-24 04:32:52	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	SELL	44	48¢	$21	0xcf047b…
07-24 04:32:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	No	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0xeafef7…
07-24 04:32:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987	No	SELL	36	65¢	$24	0x07cf1e…
07-23 22:11:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	88	63¢	$55	0xaf5b50…
07-22 10:29:28	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	SELL	62	53¢	$33	0x35223f…
07-22 08:13:42	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	168	33¢	$55	0x00ff6a…
07-22 07:53:42	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	57	93¢	$53	0x4f631e…
07-21 01:51:43	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xa10ce1…
07-21 01:51:34	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	107	50¢	$54	0x9d18a4…
07-19 17:37:54	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x5d776b…
07-19 17:37:54	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x5c1c3d…
07-19 16:07:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x65e5d0…
07-19 16:07:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969	No	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x9218a6…
07-19 16:07:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xd5927a…
07-19 16:07:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xde4d6e…
07-19 16:07:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	57	18¢	$10	0x9a86b0…
07-19 16:07:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x803f71…
07-19 15:42:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x3e93dc…
07-19 15:38:10	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 17 2026 20260714210903831	Yes	BUY	136	7¢	$10	0x4e9a2c…
07-19 15:22:18	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x42ccf5…
07-18 02:39:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	80	71¢	$57	0xddb347…
07-18 02:39:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0xce1f29…
07-18 02:37:19	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x4317a1…
07-18 02:35:10	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x572c62…
07-18 02:34:00	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	168	30¢	$50	0xe86eea…
07-18 02:33:55	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0xced059…
07-18 02:31:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xdad986…
07-18 02:31:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x79e655…
07-17 04:29:54	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	61	88¢	$53	0x5a2b8a…
07-17 04:29:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	116	47¢	$55	0xeca826…
07-17 00:38:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	71	77¢	$55	0xe19c32…
07-17 00:38:41	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	110	30¢	$33	0x6d5039…
07-16 01:03:19	Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	51¢	$18	0x2b5bd4…
07-15 16:27:14	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x3499da…
07-15 06:02:13	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x95ac0b…
07-15 02:14:31	Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	13¢	$10	0x98ee64…
07-14 19:34:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	80	80¢	$64	0xaf4304…
07-14 19:06:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	61	90¢	$55	0x9ee950…
07-14 17:58:29	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	77	96¢	$74	0x3cccf3…
07-14 15:56:26	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	70	93¢	$65	0x80b202…
07-14 05:55:05	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	7	90¢	$7	0x2d479d…
07-14 01:56:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	103	28¢	$29	0x91667f…
07-14 01:30:59	Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	51¢	$13	0x02212e…
07-14 01:19:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xad0ebd…
07-14 01:15:23	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	19	90¢	$17	0x3b0a8c…
07-14 01:11:58	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xb03a9f…
07-13 13:25:01	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	48	72¢	$35	0xc00eb6…
07-13 13:24:35	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	29	72¢	$21	0xe31804…
07-11 04:26:58	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x316523…
07-11 04:26:55	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	Yes	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x08c140…
07-11 04:26:52	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x075773…
07-09 03:34:34	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	77	91¢	$70	0xaa0712…
07-08 16:50:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0xc04069…
07-08 16:50:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x0d9fcd…
07-08 16:50:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x5047b0…
07-08 16:49:46	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0x1cdd52…
07-08 16:33:37	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x0eb994…
07-08 16:33:29	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	61	83¢	$50	0x2a8f03…
07-08 09:51:37	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0x9923d7…
07-04 13:13:44	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	SELL	69	80¢	$55	0xc7ede5…
07-04 11:36:59	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xaeee59…
07-04 10:17:26	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	60	94¢	$56	0x2165be…
07-04 09:24:55	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x704167…
07-03 12:44:34	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	No	SELL	28	63¢	$18	0xf8c89c…
07-03 04:56:26	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	No	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0x2ad9e6…
07-02 11:08:40	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	No	SELL	24	65¢	$16	0xcd7b73…
07-02 06:03:40	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	No	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0xa92a96…
07-01 19:25:25	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	80	88¢	$70	0x03bacb…
06-30 09:08:29	Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xe0d7eb…
06-30 08:40:01	Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0xe83823…
06-26 22:47:19	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	70	75¢	$52	0x37daa7…
06-26 22:46:56	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x6ac7e7…
06-26 22:45:53	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	BUY	70	83¢	$58	0x74cb87…
06-26 20:43:47	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	BUY	145	31¢	$45	0x84edd0…
06-26 12:59:11	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0xbd6320…
06-24 17:09:35	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	BUY	80	73¢	$58	0xd70cb4…
06-24 03:06:01	Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat?	Yes	BUY	232	4¢	$10	0xc70da9…
06-18 19:00:19	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0xd4862b…
06-18 19:00:19	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	31	82¢	$25	0x56bb9f…
06-18 17:35:23	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x8b8967…
06-18 17:16:46	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xc99c09…