Knowing-Veto — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$22

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$117

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 05-09 09:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

68% 50% +$23

Other

28% — —

Crypto

3% 0% $-1

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$15	14	14	+0	Yes	+$13	05-09 08:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$13	12	12	+0	Yes	+$11	05-09 08:36
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	2	$11	157	0	+157	open	—	04-13 07:08
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	3	$5	108	0	+108	open	—	04-23 17:51
will iran strike uae again in march	4	$5	12	12	+0	open	—	04-02 20:28
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$3	10	5	+5	open	—	03-26 09:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	3	$3	108	0	+108	open	—	04-13 07:11
will the us tariff rate on china be less than 5 on march 31	3	$2	250	125	+125	open	—	03-28 02:14
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	2	$2	67	0	+67	open	—	03-28 13:34
will iran strike germany by march 31	3	$2	200	100	+100	open	—	03-27 00:36
russian strike on a nato member by march 31	1	$2	118	0	+118	open	—	03-26 09:06
will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	2	$2	86	0	+86	open	—	03-26 09:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	04-02 20:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2	88	0	+88	open	—	04-12 21:52
will google have the best ai model for math on march 31	2	$1	149	33	+116	open	—	03-27 15:32
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$1	31	0	+31	open	—	03-24 10:25
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$1	6	0	+6	open	—	05-09 09:33
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	04-23 17:56
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	05-09 09:36
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	1	$1	143	0	+143	open	—	03-26 09:07
nato article 5 by march 31	1	$1	63	0	+63	open	—	03-26 09:08
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$1	12	0	+12	Yes	$-1	03-26 09:17
Trump out as President by May 31?	1	$1	125	0	+125	open	—	05-09 09:41
bitcoin up or down on march 23 2026	1	$1	143	0	+143	open	—	03-23 14:28
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	1	$1	111	0	+111	open	—	03-23 21:10
will any european country expel a us ambassador by march 31	1	$1	86	0	+86	open	—	03-26 09:12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1	100	0	+100	open	—	04-02 20:39
Netanyahu out by April 30?	1	$1	25	0	+25	open	—	03-23 14:12
trump out as president by march 31	1	$1	250	0	+250	open	—	03-23 14:13
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$1	250	0	+250	open	—	03-23 14:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 09:49:34	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?	No	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xed6259…
05-09 09:46:08	Will Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenue be above $5.7B in Q2?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x3c7e52…
05-09 09:45:03	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xc5061c…
05-09 09:41:07	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x110d42…
05-09 09:36:16	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xdbf819…
05-09 09:34:21	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x99acf6…
05-09 09:33:18	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x8fff7a…
05-09 08:36:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xfb1a5a…
05-09 08:30:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x11763b…
05-08 15:02:13	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xef1a43…
05-08 15:00:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe0daae…
04-23 17:57:42	Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	No	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xde574f…
04-23 17:56:20	Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xbb61f2…
04-23 17:56:14	Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xaf28ff…
04-23 17:55:52	Will Russia capture Serhiivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x6c7af5…
04-23 17:51:28	Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	5¢	$5	0xb9d924…
04-13 07:55:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x67fd36…
04-13 07:11:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xf87cd3…
04-13 07:08:09	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	BUY	141	7¢	$10	0x090fec…
04-12 21:55:49	Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0xe88f67…
04-12 21:55:11	Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x32339f…
04-12 21:52:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x65298c…
04-12 21:51:05	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xea46e7…
04-09 15:25:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xb6db0f…
04-09 15:15:01	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5914f1…
04-03 18:54:37	Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x867e33…
04-03 14:41:53	Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x67fb5b…
04-02 20:39:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4477d0…
04-02 20:38:11	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xa9dd64…
04-02 20:36:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe70e67…
04-02 20:28:45	will iran strike uae again in march	No	SELL	6	42¢	$3	0x53d879…
04-01 08:20:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0x3d322a…
03-28 13:34:21	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xd86ceb…
03-28 13:34:15	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xfbe648…
03-28 13:33:59	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xd54c57…
03-28 11:15:39	will iran strike uae again in march	No	SELL	3	17¢	$0	0x579cd5…
03-28 02:14:33	will the us tariff rate on china be less than 5 on march 31	Yes	SELL	68	1¢	$1	0xc7e256…
03-28 00:22:37	will the us tariff rate on china be less than 5 on march 31	Yes	SELL	57	1¢	$0	0xe0bbc3…
03-27 17:43:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xadcd98…
03-27 17:42:37	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x512489…
03-27 17:41:43	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x0f85f1…
03-27 15:32:57	will google have the best ai model for math on march 31	Yes	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xbd5b62…
03-27 00:36:45	will iran strike germany by march 31	Yes	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0x1259e3…
03-26 22:59:09	will iran strike uae again in march	No	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0xc79968…
03-26 22:05:17	will iran strike germany by march 31	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x0eb7d6…
03-26 09:30:03	will the us tariff rate on china be between 5 and 15 on march 31	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7b48de…
03-26 09:29:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x3f2a1f…
03-26 09:18:35	will google have the best ai model for math on march 31	Yes	BUY	149	1¢	$1	0x92062c…
03-26 09:18:27	will openai have the best ai model for math on march 31	No	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x651f9a…
03-26 09:18:03	will the us tariff rate on china be less than 5 on march 31	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x4c1c6a…
03-26 09:17:45	Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe26564…
03-26 09:15:09	ukraine hits moscow by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x11a342…
03-26 09:14:27	Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x628be5…
03-26 09:14:21	Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x3de68b…
03-26 09:13:53	will iran strike germany by march 31	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xd53e03…
03-26 09:13:45	will iran strike ukraine by march 31	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xb050d0…
03-26 09:13:29	will iran strike iraq again in march	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x291469…
03-26 09:13:23	will iran strike uae again in march	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa21e7b…
03-26 09:12:45	will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x54cacf…
03-26 09:12:37	will any european country expel a us ambassador by march 31	Yes	BUY	86	1¢	$1	0x2f446a…
03-26 09:08:15	nato article 5 by march 31	Yes	BUY	63	2¢	$1	0xc120e9…
03-26 09:07:59	nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x35a448…
03-26 09:07:31	trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xf5cd64…
03-26 09:06:13	russian strike on a nato member by march 31	Yes	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0xb033eb…
03-26 09:05:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x1508ce…
03-24 10:25:17	will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xa3bfe8…
03-23 21:11:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x79e0ff…
03-23 21:10:25	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x570005…
03-23 21:10:15	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xe4c6a8…
03-23 21:09:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x9a2620…
03-23 14:42:57	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x9e4c6a…
03-23 14:41:25	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x161f1e…
03-23 14:39:51	Joe Kent charged by April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x3d4c9e…
03-23 14:28:05	bitcoin up or down on march 23 2026	Down	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x03e459…
03-23 14:27:09	will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x3373dc…
03-23 14:24:05	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x4bdf97…
03-23 14:23:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xcce0f7…
03-23 14:21:35	will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x9cba1f…
03-23 14:19:51	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x7c52c2…
03-23 14:17:25	military action against iran ends on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x498200…
03-23 14:13:59	trump out as president by march 31	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x6246b6…
03-23 14:12:21	Netanyahu out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x8949c2…
03-23 14:12:11	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xf5eeea…