Realized P&L
+$3.20K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.62K
Hit rate
64.9%
Resolved
195
Trades
2,798
lifetime
Volume
$204.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$73
Open exposure
$13.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-08
last 11-13 17:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 88 days
Categories
Other
64% 55% +$4,123
Politics
33% 39% -$1,339
Crypto
3% 60% +$337
Sports
0% 100% +$82
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
29 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -4,195 -$2,898 92¢ $-3838 -$940 05-04 15:22
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +3,561 $2,932 88¢ $3.2K +$219 11-11 14:57
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +2,110 $805 57¢ $1.2K +$409 11-11 02:30
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement? Yes +1,446 $403 52¢ $745 +$341 11-10 13:14
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting? Yes +1,038 $380 58¢ $602 +$222 11-11 01:50
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting? No +833 $339 66¢ $554 +$215 11-09 22:16
Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the February meeting? Yes +2,614 $309 19¢ $497 +$188 11-11 18:15
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? Yes +999 $291 50¢ $495 +$204 11-12 13:01
US recession by end of 2026? No +500 $63 98¢ $489 +$426 11-13 15:35
Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027? No +503 $394 86¢ $432 +$38 11-10 11:04
Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting? Yes +1,028 $254 32¢ $324 +$70 11-13 16:39
US recession by end of 2027? No +300 $192 72¢ $216 +$24 10-28 14:04
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by June 30, 2027? No +286 $166 70¢ $200 +$34 11-09 23:31
Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? Yes +463 $149 35¢ $162 +$13 11-13 17:07
Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? Yes +382 $159 40¢ $155 -$4 11-11 01:05
Will Ethereum hit $4k by March 31, 2027? No +155 $141 92¢ $143 +$2 11-12 13:28
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by March 31, 2027? No +88 $65 86¢ $76 +$11 11-10 13:55
Will Solana hit $300 by June 30, 2027? No +81 $73 92¢ $74 +$1 11-09 22:07
Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? Yes +187 $62 34¢ $64 +$2 11-12 19:01
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in November? No +55 $50 94¢ $52 +$2 11-13 15:41
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on November 13? No +40 $36 96¢ $38 +$3 11-13 10:07
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No -36 -$42 99¢ $-36 +$5 11-10 11:48
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the cash rate target by 25 bps at the February meeting? Yes +160 $22 15¢ $23 +$1 11-10 23:01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +300 $13 8¢ $23 +$10 11-10 13:13
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +165 $16 8¢ $13 -$2 11-12 18:59
Will the Bank of England make no change to the Bank Rate at the February meeting? Yes +40 $8 24¢ $10 +$2 11-09 15:56
Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +194 $10 4¢ $8 -$2 11-13 15:35
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +6 -$121 96¢ $6 +$127 11-13 10:25
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +30 $7 13¢ $4 -$3 11-10 01:20
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +437 $2 1¢ $3 +$1 09-28 01:26