Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

55.6%

Resolved

175

Trades

183

lifetime

Volume

$928

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 11-04 05:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 93 days

Categories

Other

61% 48% -$3

Politics

35% 44% +$0

Tech

3% 50% -$5

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes		+6	$5	96¢	$6	+$1	07-11 04:39
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes		+8	$2	1¢	$0	-$2	06-18 18:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	1	$11	11	+11	No	+$0	05-15 03:08
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	1	$10	12	+12	No	+$2	04-21 00:30
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$10	40	+40	No	-$10	08-08 04:48
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$10	37	+37	No	-$10	08-05 12:34
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	1	$10	15	+15	No	+$5	08-05 20:35
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$10	15	+15	Yes	-$10	08-05 04:32
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$10	29	+29	Yes	+$19	08-02 07:47
will nvda reach 200 in february	1	$10	15	+15	No	+$5	02-14 01:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$10	14	+14	Yes	+$4	03-01 15:32
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by march 31	1	$10	17	+17	Yes	-$10	02-04 11:57
nflx above 80 on february 27 2026	1	$10	13	+13	Yes	-$10	02-13 01:47
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 260 279	1	$10	13	+13	No	+$3	02-28 07:30
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$10	15	+15	Yes	-$10	02-15 01:55
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 320 339	1	$10	17	+17	No	+$7	02-05 06:04
will nvda dip to 168 in february	1	$10	15	+15	No	+$5	02-13 17:51
another us government shutdown by february 14	1	$10	28	+28	No	+$18	02-06 10:43
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 1m 791 144 948	1	$10	34	+34	No	-$10	02-14 09:54
will the bhumjaithai party bjt win 140 or more seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	1	$10	21	+21	Yes	+$11	02-06 02:43
will trump say tiktok this week february 8	1	$10	21	+21	No	+$11	02-04 11:54
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	1	$10	41	+41	Yes	+$31	02-04 11:56
will elon musk be named in newly released epstein files by february 28	1	$10	13	+13	No	+$3	02-04 11:51
will matt goodwin reform win the gorton and denton by election	1	$10	43	+43	No	-$10	02-14 17:54
trump approval up or down this week 596	1	$10	16	+16	Down	+$6	02-28 15:31
spx up or down on march 2 2026	1	$10	27	+27	Up	+$17	02-28 23:31
will the bangladesh nationalist party bnp win between 150 and 199 seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	1	$10	20	+20	No	+$10	02-12 07:40
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	1	$10	19	+19	cancelled	+$0	07-30 17:13
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	1	$10	14	+14	Yes	-$10	07-06 16:25
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 15%+?	1	$10	10	+10	No	+$1	05-27 16:42
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	1	$10	27	+27	No	+$18	02-02 21:02
will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	1	$9	14	+14	Yes	-$9	07-09 04:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 05:50:15	Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-09-08?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x305e94…
09-29 22:21:24	Will Sri Lanka win on 2026-09-30?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x0e6d50…
09-28 05:18:05	Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-09-29?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x8270d6…
09-27 16:44:32	Will Italy win on 2026-09-28?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3a66eb…
09-27 16:44:29	Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de Jujuy win on 2026-09-27?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4cbc63…
09-26 04:21:24	Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-09-27?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xda0bbc…
09-26 04:21:23	Will CF Montréal win on 2026-09-26?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xad944f…
09-26 04:21:20	Will Deportes Copiapo win on 2026-09-26?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x6a2ba4…
08-08 04:48:36	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xf2c1be…
08-05 20:35:21	Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x3b7862…
08-05 12:34:27	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xff876a…
08-05 04:32:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xdde3a7…
08-02 07:47:08	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xb56baf…
07-31 10:59:30	spy closes above 745 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xf550fa…
07-30 17:13:32	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	No	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0x27a04f…
07-30 05:27:44	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x729bbe…
07-29 17:32:17	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x366f40…
07-29 00:28:13	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x27c3cd…
07-28 04:03:48	will trump say security during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556649	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xc87127…
07-27 19:57:58	will trump say military during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556645	No	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x9e23d9…
07-26 04:52:07	will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x181bdb…
07-23 16:50:27	Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 38%-40%?	No	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0xe1273b…
07-22 16:49:51	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x440b7a…
07-20 04:47:15	will spy reach 755 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xf765ef…
07-19 16:47:00	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xbc4db7…
07-19 04:46:54	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xb0f45d…
07-18 16:46:51	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xab31ba…
07-18 04:46:34	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x9846ba…
07-17 04:46:19	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xf70060…
07-16 16:46:11	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x73d7dc…
07-16 04:40:56	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xb26a45…
07-15 16:40:50	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x55d826…
07-15 04:40:44	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6fe8e9…
07-14 16:40:43	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xb240a6…
07-14 04:40:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xa7202b…
07-13 16:40:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x5b6084…
07-13 04:39:59	will wti reach 80 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xe6cb6b…
07-12 16:39:53	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x48b574…
07-12 04:39:40	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?	No	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x6c25c9…
07-11 16:39:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x46b36d…
07-11 04:39:29	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x443829…
07-10 16:39:25	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xad5db9…
07-10 04:39:23	spx up or down on july 10 2026	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x9c4a00…
07-09 16:39:19	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xa36b55…
07-09 04:39:16	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x08315d…
07-08 16:39:13	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x67b3a2…
07-08 04:25:17	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0xdb9f6e…
07-07 16:25:10	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xd89996…
07-07 04:25:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xaf2a23…
07-06 16:25:01	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	No	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0xf50c97…
07-06 04:24:38	will open reach 5 25 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$5	0xa1ad41…
06-19 16:42:46	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xb7215a…
06-18 18:43:50	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x9a4348…
06-17 21:39:34	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xbc0980…
06-15 00:30:21	Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x2e5e62…
06-14 03:06:58	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xf71772…
06-13 04:43:36	Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x4b620b…
06-12 07:27:19	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	12	21¢	$3	0xfaf68f…
06-11 09:48:49	will brian bjelde be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212485	Yes	BUY	11	41¢	$5	0x16a363…
05-27 16:42:13	Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 15%+?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x580b2c…
05-27 08:39:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xaf9b35…
05-20 23:37:09	Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.3B?	No	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0xd43c5f…
05-20 15:15:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x670a69…
05-16 19:25:40	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	11	23¢	$3	0x37da6b…
05-16 11:22:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x239a0f…
05-16 03:21:27	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x330f38…
05-15 19:20:38	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x707991…
05-15 11:19:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xc69767…
05-15 03:08:52	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x83589c…
05-14 19:07:37	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x673cb7…
05-14 11:06:44	Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.9B?	No	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x4b8946…
05-14 02:54:59	Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x8dbab5…
05-13 18:54:32	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xbe3172…
05-13 10:54:27	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 13?	Down	BUY	11	41¢	$5	0x32bf82…
05-13 02:51:16	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x5591ef…
05-12 18:49:21	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x12bffd…
05-12 10:49:14	Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	No	BUY	11	23¢	$3	0x82d0c6…
05-12 02:47:14	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x4477ef…
05-11 18:45:31	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	27¢	$3	0xc2a850…
05-11 10:43:48	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x964bcc…
05-11 02:43:16	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x8050bc…
05-10 18:42:38	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	9	39¢	$4	0x4c50db…
05-10 10:42:12	Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xa969be…
04-27 00:20:42	Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?	No	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x7398ea…
04-26 16:20:38	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in April?	No	BUY	12	69¢	$8	0x237379…
04-26 08:15:02	Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	11	31¢	$4	0x9d1a66…
04-26 00:14:10	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xac48b0…
04-25 08:09:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x87ef99…
04-24 11:18:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x98d038…
04-23 23:54:38	Will Clorox (CLX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xed8a20…
04-22 18:08:44	spy closes above 710 on april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x3c50b9…
04-22 09:51:10	Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x5d2f9a…
04-22 00:56:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xcb30b7…
04-21 08:37:32	Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 24, 2026?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x0b607f…
04-21 00:30:14	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x15ecd5…
04-20 16:28:30	Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xc92176…
04-20 08:15:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x9677b3…
04-14 09:32:57	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x39d06b…
04-13 16:21:13	donald trump of truth social posts april 10 april 17 100 119	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x5ae0d8…
04-13 04:27:57	will msft dip to 360 by april 13 2026	Yes	BUY	15	49¢	$8	0x9e1522…