Aggressive-Metallurgist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$67

Hit rate

47.6%

Resolved

Trades

141

lifetime

Volume

$9.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$141

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 06-25 17:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

46% 100% +$1

Politics

30% — —

Sports

24% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		-187	$-71	74¢	$-139	$-68	06-14 23:44
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes		-39	$-2	4¢	$-1	+$1	06-04 07:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	7	$1.3K	1,997	1,997	+0	open	—	04-23 05:22
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$1.2K	690	690	+0	No	+$0	04-22 09:52
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$1.1K	588	588	+0	Yes	+$1	04-22 12:00
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.1K	582	582	+0	open	—	04-21 06:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	7	$507	287	287	+0	open	—	05-31 03:18
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	8	$419	431	431	+0	open	—	05-27 20:45
Will Alberta join the US?	9	$417	418	418	+0	open	—	06-05 10:27
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	6	$397	247	247	+0	open	—	06-04 16:50
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	5	$309	217	217	+0	open	—	06-23 14:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	6	$292	166	166	+0	open	—	06-17 18:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$260	193	380	-187	open	—	06-14 23:44
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	2	$210	107	107	+0	open	—	06-01 18:27
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	7	$196	340	216	+124	open	—	06-13 16:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	7	$191	198	198	+0	open	—	05-31 07:59
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	3	$187	116	116	+0	open	—	06-08 11:28
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$183	95	95	+0	open	—	05-23 14:33
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	7	$169	245	245	+0	open	—	06-24 07:14
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	2	$161	82	82	+0	open	—	06-15 15:00
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	2	$146	140	140	+0	open	—	06-24 13:05
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	4	$145	196	196	+0	open	—	06-13 09:58
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$145	76	76	+0	open	—	06-19 03:13
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	3	$142	73	73	+0	open	—	06-25 03:11
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$127	146	146	+0	open	—	06-25 17:04
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	1	$94	95	0	+95	open	—	05-28 20:51
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	2	$74	41	41	+0	open	—	06-23 09:18
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	4	$73	192	192	+0	open	—	06-22 22:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	3	$72	84	84	+0	open	—	06-01 01:31
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	2	$53	27	27	+0	open	—	05-30 08:37
israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	6	$34	162	162	+0	open	—	06-24 18:57
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	3	$26	185	185	+0	open	—	05-23 21:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 17:04:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	146	38¢	$55	0x2ec16d…
06-25 14:33:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	146	49¢	$72	0x5e0484…
06-25 03:11:59	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	49	98¢	$48	0x8951d8…
06-25 03:11:59	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	24	98¢	$23	0x6bcd30…
06-24 22:58:22	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	73	97¢	$71	0x1b1313…
06-24 18:57:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x8e4525…
06-24 18:57:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	59	10¢	$6	0x73d3d7…
06-24 18:57:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	88	10¢	$9	0x00b093…
06-24 16:44:40	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	26	11¢	$3	0xea5bff…
06-24 16:44:40	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	48	11¢	$5	0x507e61…
06-24 16:44:40	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	88	11¢	$10	0x1ab2b9…
06-24 13:05:07	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	140	52¢	$73	0xec9de5…
06-24 09:22:41	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	140	52¢	$73	0x093e6b…
06-24 07:14:13	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	83	88¢	$73	0x327e01…
06-24 03:11:56	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	78	88¢	$69	0xb4c399…
06-24 03:11:56	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x82a642…
06-23 14:53:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	118	68¢	$80	0xfc51b6…
06-23 14:52:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	118	68¢	$80	0x664c54…
06-23 09:18:22	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	90¢	$37	0xddfdcd…
06-23 06:51:31	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	41	90¢	$37	0x082ea5…
06-22 22:04:46	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	19¢	$6	0xfb9231…
06-22 22:04:46	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	19¢	$30	0x54d6cb…
06-22 20:38:49	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	178	19¢	$34	0x253be2…
06-22 20:38:49	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x0fae62…
06-21 15:49:44	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0x7515da…
06-21 15:49:44	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	89	75¢	$67	0x1191ba…
06-21 15:48:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	99	75¢	$74	0xc2de90…
06-19 03:13:34	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0x73be9f…
06-18 17:43:32	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	53	95¢	$50	0xecc49b…
06-18 15:37:10	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	76	95¢	$72	0x1be97f…
06-18 02:45:44	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	81	9¢	$7	0x3df603…
06-18 00:32:46	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	9¢	$1	0x4f24bc…
06-18 00:32:46	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	68	9¢	$6	0x348a4a…
06-17 18:37:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	81	90¢	$73	0x99c208…
06-17 16:07:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	68	90¢	$61	0xd8f0b9…
06-17 16:07:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x7b0602…
06-17 00:59:43	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0xdcbb07…
06-17 00:59:40	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0x276ad6…
06-17 00:59:38	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	126	7¢	$9	0x6ee451…
06-17 00:58:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	162	7¢	$11	0x25618e…
06-15 15:00:46	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	82	98¢	$80	0x49f41d…
06-15 14:59:58	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0x56d24b…
06-15 05:12:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x3ffdd3…
06-15 05:11:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	75	86¢	$64	0x86f291…
06-15 04:03:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	85	86¢	$73	0x747f0c…
06-14 23:44:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	27	38¢	$10	0x7fe0ed…
06-14 23:44:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	160	38¢	$61	0x689c8a…
06-13 16:26:48	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	34	78¢	$27	0x66aa82…
06-13 16:26:46	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0xe2b127…
06-13 16:26:42	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	68	78¢	$53	0x7ba7f4…
06-13 09:58:27	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	196	37¢	$73	0xaa100d…
06-13 07:26:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	154	37¢	$57	0xf09f35…
06-13 07:26:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xdc5f0c…
06-13 07:26:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0xc292b4…
06-13 03:18:36	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	90	22¢	$20	0x8dc2b3…
06-13 03:07:43	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	126	22¢	$28	0xa2099f…
06-12 22:17:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	89	24¢	$21	0xffbe70…
06-12 22:17:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	127	24¢	$30	0x568dd8…
06-12 10:10:30	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	6¢	$7	0x794f58…
06-12 07:57:33	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0xaeef7d…
06-12 07:57:33	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	6¢	$6	0x224f07…
06-08 11:28:13	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	116	79¢	$92	0x637f54…
06-05 14:22:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	65	82¢	$53	0x6404d8…
06-05 14:22:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	51	82¢	$42	0x16f4b2…
06-05 10:27:01	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x189139…
06-05 08:07:28	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x05c240…
06-04 16:50:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	128	82¢	$105	0x42c1eb…
06-04 15:43:40	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	128	82¢	$105	0xb1646c…
06-04 07:42:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	6¢	$2	0xade34c…
06-01 20:48:12	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	198	4¢	$9	0x77c8b9…
06-01 20:48:12	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0x646cec…
06-01 18:57:15	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	97	4¢	$4	0xf9951d…
06-01 18:57:15	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0xd75867…
06-01 18:57:15	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	99	4¢	$4	0x81bc6e…
06-01 18:27:58	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	107	98¢	$105	0xb76cf6…
06-01 15:57:03	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	107	98¢	$105	0x516c9c…
06-01 01:31:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	43¢	$36	0x508f41…
06-01 01:13:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	43¢	$34	0x7def50…
06-01 01:13:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x585e3b…
06-01 01:07:37	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	109	96¢	$104	0x64a23a…
05-31 23:10:48	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	109	96¢	$104	0x3964f2…
05-31 07:59:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	97	2¢	$2	0x74fc5f…
05-31 06:40:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	65	2¢	$2	0xe16835…
05-31 06:40:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0xdb7f12…
05-31 03:18:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	101	94¢	$95	0x1a87ad…
05-31 00:11:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	77	94¢	$72	0xabff2b…
05-31 00:11:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	24	94¢	$22	0x69ba78…
05-30 19:38:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	56	49¢	$27	0xda9421…
05-30 19:38:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	137	49¢	$67	0xcd2f58…
05-30 17:34:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	40	49¢	$19	0x6ce35e…
05-30 17:34:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	153	49¢	$75	0xd23245…
05-30 14:27:03	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	87	80¢	$69	0x6f9c13…
05-30 14:27:03	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	21	80¢	$17	0x5e7185…
05-30 14:27:03	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0x245036…
05-30 11:25:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	119	78¢	$93	0x50da59…
05-30 08:37:38	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x3d718f…
05-30 08:36:52	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x85d28c…
05-29 18:26:55	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	2¢	$0	0xfd9fdf…
05-29 18:26:55	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0xf74402…
05-29 16:22:00	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0x0a71c8…