Realized P&L (30d)
-$1.04K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.07K
Hit rate
44.1%
Resolved (30d)
105
Trades (30d)
775
5,087 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$32.5K
$203.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$40
Open exposure
$3.35K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-18
last 11-07 13:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 190 days
Categories
Other
56% 37% -$502
Politics
32% 34% +$386
Tech
8% 48% +$839
Sports
3% 25% -$582
Crypto
1% 0% -$296
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$23
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31? Yes +949 $515 69¢ $655 +$139 11-06 21:14
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +5,000 $837 10¢ $475 -$362 10-09 13:48
Robert Pattinson announced as next James Bond? Yes +2,000 -$837 24¢ $472 +$1,309 11-07 13:18
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes +3,000 $360 8¢ $225 -$135 10-15 18:09
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? No +213 $138 80¢ $171 +$33 11-04 23:48
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? Yes -856 -$580 18¢ $-150 +$429 11-07 03:50
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30? Yes +1,000 $132 14¢ $140 +$8 11-06 10:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in November? Yes +200 $131 67¢ $134 +$3 11-06 09:18
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes -993 -$205 12¢ $-114 +$91 10-24 22:44
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? No -102 -$99 99¢ $-101 -$2 11-04 18:46
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? Yes +135 $33 60¢ $82 +$49 11-06 22:49
Tom Francis announced as next James Bond? Yes +4,424 $57 2¢ $71 +$14 11-07 12:24
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +100 $30 68¢ $68 +$38 11-04 16:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +200 $81 32¢ $63 -$18 10-15 17:56
Israel military action against Syria by December 31, 2026? Yes +172 $48 30¢ $51 +$3 11-06 14:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in November? Yes +100 $41 44¢ $44 +$3 11-06 09:18
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? Yes +307 -$541 14¢ $43 +$584 11-06 20:21
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond? Yes +2,080 $126 2¢ $41 -$85 10-22 15:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in November? No +100 $30 32¢ $32 +$2 11-05 16:35
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $33 14¢ $27 -$6 10-30 16:29
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? Yes +160 $32 16¢ $26 -$6 11-01 04:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? Yes +400 $32 6¢ $26 -$6 11-06 23:02
Joe Alwyn announced as next James Bond? Yes +16,306 $16 0¢ $24 +$8 11-01 13:21
Theo James announced as next James Bond? Yes +1,041 $4 2¢ $23 +$19 11-06 11:01
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31? Yes +95 $42 24¢ $22 -$20 10-24 15:05
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes +1,100 $17 2¢ $20 +$3 11-07 04:22
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026? Yes +120 $10 12¢ $14 +$5 10-28 10:13
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes +600 $20 2¢ $13 -$7 11-06 14:15
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%? Yes -376 -$6 3¢ $-12 -$6 11-06 14:15
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026? Yes +120 $25 8¢ $10 -$15 10-28 12:38