Fresh-Cinema — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$8.86K

Hit rate

76.8%

Resolved

184

Trades

2,808

lifetime

Volume

$683.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$244

Open exposure

$36.8K

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-04 14:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 89 days

Categories

Other

49% 72% +$9,032

Crypto

25% 78% +$14,076

Tech

15% 62% -$12,691

Politics

9% 71% +$5,381

Sports

2% 67% +$1,714

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 107 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+16,000	$13,835	91¢	$14.6K	+$733	11-04 01:52
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	+8,000	$6,685	78¢	$6.2K	-$485	11-04 01:52
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+11,000	$7,945	39¢	$4.3K	-$3,655	11-04 14:33
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	+4,000	$3,590	88¢	$3.5K	-$90	11-04 04:44
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+11,000	$6,209	30¢	$3.3K	-$2,909	11-04 04:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,000	$2,669	88¢	$2.6K	-$44	10-03 23:42
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+4,900	$1,078	19¢	$936	-$143	10-28 01:23
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,000	$3,948	42¢	$830	-$3,118	11-04 01:55
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	-5,000	-$500	4¢	$-200	+$300	06-14 10:52
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	-1,000	-$392	18¢	$-175	+$217	06-26 02:04
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	-500	-$151	27¢	$-133	+$18	07-15 18:43
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	-2,000	-$180	2¢	$-35	+$145	06-28 05:11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	-1,000	-$190	2¢	$-22	+$167	06-03 01:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	47	$35.2K	19,000	20,000	-1,000	No	+$1,565	07-03 18:14
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	80	$33.2K	35,000	35,000	+0	open	—	09-17 17:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	47	$30.7K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	+$94	07-07 20:11
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	104	$26.3K	22,000	22,000	+0	Yes	-$10,250	07-30 15:55
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	40	$26.3K	14,000	14,000	+0	No	+$1,570	08-21 02:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	37	$20.8K	24,000	0	+24,000	Yes	+$3,247	07-29 17:23
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	11	$15.0K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	11-01 02:21
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	64	$14.1K	15,000	0	+15,000	Yes	+$906	06-26 02:01
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	35	$13.8K	16,000	0	+16,000	open	—	11-04 01:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	49	$12.8K	7,900	8,000	-100	No	+$304	04-26 01:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	44	$12.7K	16,500	16,500	+0	No	-$4,295	07-12 17:45
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	120	$12.3K	12,000	12,000	+0	No	-$1,018	07-30 15:57
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	89	$11.6K	8,802	5,802	+3,000	No	-$5,193	10-29 22:51
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	27	$11.1K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$731	03-25 19:15
Fed rate hike in 2026?	39	$11.0K	14,000	4,000	+10,000	Yes	+$2,720	08-17 03:48
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	15	$10.2K	5,500	5,500	+0	open	—	11-03 23:01
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	17	$9.4K	4,705	5,000	-295	No	+$212	02-23 20:05
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	80	$9.0K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	07-22 04:40
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	21	$8.8K	14,041	3,041	+11,000	open	—	11-04 04:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	15	$8.5K	4,500	4,500	+0	No	+$332	04-22 21:49
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	11	$8.3K	4,310	4,310	+0	No	+$300	08-21 03:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	28	$8.1K	9,000	1,000	+8,000	No	+$310	04-28 04:50
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	48	$8.0K	9,000	0	+9,000	Yes	+$979	08-21 03:50
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	36	$7.9K	11,000	0	+11,000	open	—	11-04 14:33
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	58	$7.7K	8,254	0	+8,254	Yes	+$535	09-21 21:36
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	3	$7.5K	8,000	0	+8,000	No	+$470	11-03 22:58
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	34	$7.3K	9,000	0	+9,000	Yes	+$1,653	08-21 03:48
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	46	$7.3K	8,000	0	+8,000	Yes	+$730	08-21 03:46
will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	25	$7.1K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	-$526	08-02 05:23
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	6	$6.7K	7,000	1,000	+6,000	No	-$214	02-23 20:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 14:33:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	394	50¢	$197	0x04daa4…
11-04 04:56:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	667	49¢	$327	0xa4df1b…
11-04 04:54:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	49¢	$24	0x8c7517…
11-04 04:44:04	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	686	91¢	$624	0x9941dd…
11-04 03:42:57	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0x3a5fd2…
11-04 02:37:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb6eb1f…
11-04 02:32:34	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xbf4de8…
11-04 02:00:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	274	49¢	$134	0x71b21d…
11-04 01:57:21	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	245	73¢	$179	0x3c0d3d…
11-04 01:55:36	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,000	25¢	$1,000	0x763cfc…
11-04 01:54:30	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	175	74¢	$130	0xd2133a…
11-04 01:54:24	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x812e1f…
11-04 01:52:27	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	92¢	$915	0x4c2198…
11-04 01:52:21	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	76¢	$380	0xec9a87…
11-04 01:50:25	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	91¢	$128	0x9264ee…
11-04 00:46:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	64¢	$11	0x23bf2c…
11-03 23:16:40	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	70¢	$49	0xd059a5…
11-03 23:13:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	24	64¢	$15	0x3febde…
11-03 23:08:48	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x019e8f…
11-03 23:04:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	564	64¢	$361	0xb7b524…
11-03 23:01:28	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xec5aac…
11-03 23:01:16	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	170	93¢	$158	0x48562b…
11-03 22:59:22	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	92¢	$923	0xd9d223…
11-03 22:58:04	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0x282371…
11-03 22:57:46	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	2,500	96¢	$2,400	0x4a0291…
11-03 22:56:42	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,730	94¢	$1,618	0x6fac1d…
11-03 22:55:51	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0xead3e2…
11-02 22:42:24	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	373	92¢	$345	0xecbe9b…
11-02 22:00:55	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	57	92¢	$52	0x19d20b…
11-02 22:00:40	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x801b30…
11-02 22:00:40	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,500	92¢	$2,298	0x6bd68c…
11-02 22:00:40	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0x09a9b7…
11-01 02:35:10	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	84¢	$840	0x0b45c7…
11-01 02:32:07	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	87¢	$102	0xc1af2d…
11-01 02:30:10	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	86¢	$71	0xcd20d7…
11-01 02:30:06	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	700	86¢	$602	0x6c413c…
11-01 02:30:06	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x68dc88…
11-01 02:30:06	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	86¢	$54	0x3fafab…
11-01 02:29:58	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0xb9c9fd…
11-01 02:24:10	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	365	86¢	$314	0xdf95b5…
11-01 02:23:40	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	86¢	$113	0x234689…
11-01 02:23:12	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	506	86¢	$435	0xe14725…
11-01 02:21:48	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8,000	97¢	$7,738	0x5ebe2b…
11-01 02:20:55	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	86¢	$859	0xec59fb…
11-01 02:19:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	48¢	$480	0xd31fdd…
11-01 02:19:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	48¢	$480	0x6066a9…
10-29 22:51:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	32¢	$162	0xb6e1e7…
10-29 22:51:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	192	32¢	$62	0x6e5871…
10-29 22:51:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	32¢	$24	0x4a625f…
10-29 22:51:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	32¢	$162	0x0aaa06…
10-29 22:51:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	32¢	$162	0x6bc9b6…
10-29 22:50:27	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	65¢	$97	0xa187d1…
10-29 22:50:15	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	65¢	$653	0x07233a…
10-29 22:49:07	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	62¢	$56	0x8b950e…
10-29 22:49:06	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x2a07de…
10-29 22:49:04	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	62¢	$188	0x75cdc2…
10-29 22:49:03	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	62¢	$21	0x19a7fd…
10-29 22:49:03	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	62¢	$104	0x07ccba…
10-29 22:49:01	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	62¢	$49	0x65bf81…
10-29 22:49:01	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	62¢	$14	0x3c4926…
10-29 22:48:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	560	37¢	$204	0xf36780…
10-29 22:48:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	36¢	$19	0xa4053c…
10-29 22:48:57	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	37¢	$14	0xf27f56…
10-29 22:48:52	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	63¢	$314	0xb816b2…
10-29 22:48:48	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	63¢	$189	0x71d675…
10-29 22:48:48	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x4a7e39…
10-29 22:48:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	256	36¢	$93	0x7c3f5c…
10-29 22:47:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	36¢	$11	0xf92671…
10-29 22:47:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	36¢	$23	0x765fcc…
10-29 22:47:40	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	60¢	$45	0xeaa29f…
10-29 22:46:28	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	234	40¢	$93	0x6ca46f…
10-29 22:45:51	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x67a693…
10-29 22:40:07	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	53¢	$12	0x1ed221…
10-29 22:38:00	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xe5de2a…
10-29 22:37:52	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xc6f2fe…
10-29 22:37:07	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	45¢	$19	0xc7f1f6…
10-29 22:37:07	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	45¢	$96	0xc63b86…
10-29 22:37:07	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	45¢	$20	0xb0b926…
10-29 22:36:58	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x6d8ab6…
10-29 22:36:51	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0xfa1739…
10-29 22:36:40	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	42¢	$16	0xce9f76…
10-29 22:36:39	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0xe92d9d…
10-29 22:20:43	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	36¢	$8	0xf2182a…
10-29 22:16:28	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	808	36¢	$291	0xd6a57e…
10-29 22:16:13	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	192	36¢	$69	0x431a4e…
10-29 22:13:54	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	327	31¢	$100	0x6d58a8…
10-29 16:11:55	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,500	80¢	$2,800	0x7cd29c…
10-29 06:23:59	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	63	65¢	$41	0xb39b96…
10-29 06:23:59	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x6f8be6…
10-28 01:38:59	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	992	94¢	$932	0x8f6feb…
10-28 01:32:47	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	5,000	93¢	$4,650	0xc5f247…
10-28 01:23:05	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1,000	18¢	$181	0x80186a…
10-28 01:22:53	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1,000	18¢	$181	0x52c471…
10-28 01:21:30	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	70	65¢	$46	0xe73781…
10-28 01:19:38	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0xcd288b…
10-26 12:18:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	671	77¢	$517	0xe7cebe…
10-26 12:17:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,214	77¢	$935	0x7c7751…
10-26 12:17:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	121	77¢	$93	0x375873…
10-26 12:17:05	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	121	77¢	$93	0xad5c90…
10-26 12:17:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	121	77¢	$93	0x4d339e…