Astonishing-Organisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

80.3%

Resolved

311

Trades

634

lifetime

Volume

$7.76K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$11

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 11-10 08:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

78% 83% -$23

Crypto

15% 86% +$1

Politics

5% 73% +$0

Sports

2% 44% $0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?	No		+11	$11	100¢	$11	$0	11-10 08:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alfonso López Chau win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	3	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	04-13 09:07
will another party win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	+$0	04-13 09:08
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?	4	$63	48	14	+34	No	+$0	05-11 06:54
highest temperature in houston on april 1 2026 94 95f	1	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	04-01 10:19
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-09 09:55
ethereum above 1800 on march 29	1	$57	58	0	+58	Yes	+$0	03-29 06:11
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	8	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-13 12:14
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	3	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-16 22:20
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 8?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-08 12:26
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 10?	2	$53	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-10 05:11
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on May 10?	6	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-10 09:24
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on May 5?	9	$51	26	26	+0	No	$0	05-05 09:33
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 6?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-06 03:14
highest temperature in atlanta on april 22 2026 73forbelow	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-22 11:31
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on May 2?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-02 01:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 27?	2	$49	24	24	+0	No	+$0	04-26 23:15
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 40°C or higher on May 7?	4	$49	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-07 03:34
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	$0	05-12 03:43
ethereum above 2400 on april 11	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	04-11 02:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-14 12:24
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	05-14 12:26
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 6?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-06 05:27
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 14?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	05-13 20:02
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 6?	5	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-06 03:04
highest temperature in istanbul on april 6 2026 13c	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	04-06 02:44
highest temperature in lagos on april 18 2026 37corhigher	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	04-19 01:32
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	4	$47	23	23	+0	No	+$0	05-15 01:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	3	$47	23	23	+0	No	+$0	04-29 02:44
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 40°C or higher on May 2?	3	$47	23	23	+0	No	$0	05-01 12:45
will trolls be the 2 global netflix movie this week	1	$46	46	0	+46	No	+$0	03-30 06:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 08:06:57	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x41befb…
10-08 06:37:20	Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe4b4f1…
10-08 06:36:29	Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x0648bb…
10-08 06:35:34	Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x9faeb5…
10-08 06:34:43	Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x3c7d54…
10-08 06:33:55	Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb0b862…
10-08 06:33:04	Will CF Montréal win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x157c93…
10-08 06:32:07	Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa0873f…
10-08 06:31:16	Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$10	0x12cecd…
09-26 13:43:41	Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1c6bd4…
09-21 22:36:21	Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x9c1e9e…
09-13 07:23:01	Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2c1152…
09-06 22:16:36	Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x97bab0…
08-28 20:16:54	Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x9488de…
08-25 00:17:30	Will CF Montréal win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x70d1a8…
08-08 01:28:58	Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0xed3074…
08-04 18:57:36	Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd2bdbb…
08-04 18:56:41	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xb3d3ed…
08-04 18:55:44	Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x2397d7…
08-03 04:29:03	Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8fa618…
07-26 04:07:16	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1653f0…
07-22 05:52:18	Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x957489…
07-22 05:51:25	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x33ae2e…
07-22 05:50:31	Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xceea2c…
07-21 06:01:57	Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2fd2c9…
07-19 01:37:31	Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7cc1b9…
07-12 18:31:34	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x520d9b…
07-05 10:24:52	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4198b8…
07-02 00:39:23	Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc87354…
06-25 02:51:14	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8e0993…
06-20 09:48:26	Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf4ad3c…
06-20 01:41:32	Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x62082a…
06-03 14:16:59	Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe97ab3…
05-16 22:20:56	Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xbc5c6f…
05-16 22:18:27	Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x76f948…
05-15 23:51:29	Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xf03dd6…
05-15 03:14:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x24f082…
05-15 02:15:10	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x4689e0…
05-15 01:20:23	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 15?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0xbb219b…
05-15 01:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x52e0fa…
05-15 01:01:07	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x4f8ca2…
05-15 00:55:55	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xeb7acb…
05-15 00:05:07	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 15?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3b0162…
05-15 00:03:57	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 15?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5206a5…
05-15 00:01:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x75d0b7…
05-14 18:51:17	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x463143…
05-14 17:32:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe2f792…
05-14 14:52:35	Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x58e08c…
05-14 14:16:11	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x1b9ae6…
05-14 12:53:38	Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xf7fb31…
05-14 12:43:52	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x17edd8…
05-14 12:43:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc845bd…
05-14 12:34:25	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 15?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xbe1e36…
05-14 12:31:23	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on May 15?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x241d04…
05-14 12:26:11	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xa74b07…
05-14 12:24:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x147bd0…
05-14 08:28:20	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5045b5…
05-14 05:23:13	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on May 15?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x082f0f…
05-14 05:14:35	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 15?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9a7b8e…
05-14 00:27:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x091fb3…
05-13 22:28:16	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or below on May 14?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3a4a88…
05-13 20:41:13	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x1106f0…
05-13 20:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 14?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x825fda…
05-13 19:50:07	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xd9387f…
05-13 19:48:43	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 14?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x8192d6…
05-13 18:10:57	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xae3eff…
05-13 17:41:05	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 14?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xb36eaf…
05-13 14:44:50	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 14?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x78f04a…
05-13 13:47:03	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 13?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x6dafac…
05-13 13:47:03	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3b8a1c…
05-13 13:46:25	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 13?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x74fdfb…
05-13 12:14:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x88a147…
05-13 12:08:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x841ef5…
05-13 11:57:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfb857b…
05-13 11:57:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xdd436b…
05-13 11:57:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xaa0a57…
05-13 11:57:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3fbb3e…
05-13 11:57:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2c2806…
05-13 11:50:02	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 39°C or higher on May 13?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x48d541…
05-13 08:26:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xf5b67e…
05-12 14:34:14	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on May 13?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xe8ecbe…
05-12 14:09:38	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 13?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0xac8a7b…
05-12 13:22:58	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x32e20e…
05-12 07:27:35	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on May 12?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x912ccc…
05-12 06:18:20	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or higher on May 12?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3a29b2…
05-12 05:32:47	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on May 13?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8560d1…
05-12 05:02:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 13?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x45b415…
05-12 04:28:47	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on May 12?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xe88418…
05-12 04:19:08	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 39°C or higher on May 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x108d81…
05-12 04:15:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 13?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x5378ab…
05-12 03:50:54	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 15°C on May 13?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xe7e3e0…
05-12 03:50:54	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 15°C on May 13?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe6d4c2…
05-12 03:43:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xc46bff…
05-12 00:50:46	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 15°C on May 13?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x73da61…
05-12 00:29:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 12?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x4f2f97…
05-12 00:20:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe0e17e…
05-11 23:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on May 13?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0639ee…
05-11 22:24:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 12?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xab3594…
05-11 21:43:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x598a13…
05-11 21:34:16	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 12?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd79222…