Realized P&L
+$3.27K
Unrealized P&L
+$3.61K
Hit rate
79.4%
Resolved
1,149
Trades
14,246
lifetime
Volume
$1.25M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$87
Open exposure
$39.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 11:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 209 days
Categories
Other
53% 81% +$8,630
Politics
38% 74% -$3,902
Crypto
4% 85% +$1,225
Sports
3% 89% -$3,024
Tech
2% 77% +$339
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 135 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +3,995 $3,330 94¢ $3.8K +$425 10-23 12:13
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +6,136 $2,748 54¢ $3.3K +$581 10-10 00:04
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +2,788 $2,683 97¢ $2.7K +$10 10-26 17:49
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +3,295 $2,132 76¢ $2.5K +$389 10-22 09:56
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +3,238 $2,102 78¢ $2.5K +$407 10-15 12:50
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +2,729 $1,163 88¢ $2.4K +$1,225 10-24 21:18
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +2,670 $2,380 86¢ $2.3K -$71 10-13 00:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +2,525 $1,774 88¢ $2.2K +$460 09-29 22:45
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +2,519 $1,585 88¢ $2.2K +$637 10-22 20:32
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +2,227 $1,991 92¢ $2.1K +$70 10-01 09:00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +2,286 $1,754 86¢ $2.0K +$204 10-20 06:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +5,169 $2,997 36¢ $1.9K -$1,113 10-22 01:52
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,800 $1,733 66¢ $1.9K +$129 10-22 16:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +1,830 $1,480 86¢ $1.6K +$103 09-16 05:33
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,933 $1,196 70¢ $1.3K +$148 10-09 00:48
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,776 $1,443 74¢ $1.3K -$120 10-24 18:22
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes +743 $700 98¢ $730 +$31 10-26 16:44
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +700 $503 94¢ $655 +$152 10-23 16:58
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -600 -$621 98¢ $-589 +$32 06-10 20:59
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes -570 -$470 96¢ $-549 -$79 06-16 21:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -525 -$509 83¢ $-436 +$73 10-16 01:02
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +150 $105 78¢ $118 +$13 10-27 08:30
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +8 $12 74¢ $6 -$5 10-27 11:43
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes -44 -$59 6¢ $-2 +$57 06-12 08:33
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +0 -$61 94¢ $0 +$61 08-31 00:07
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No +0 -$9 93¢ $0 +$9 09-14 22:33
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +0 $607 81¢ $0 -$607 09-22 22:37
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +0 -$55 92¢ $0 +$55 09-07 08:26
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +0 -$349 96¢ $0 +$349 06-24 19:50
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No +0 $14 96¢ $0 -$14 09-10 17:44