Realized P&L
+$570
Unrealized P&L
+$128
Hit rate
94.6%
Resolved
22
Trades
8,702
lifetime
Volume
$726.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$83
Open exposure
$18.4K
25 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 20:09
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Other
56% 67% +$476
Politics
35% 94% +$94
Crypto
4%
Sports
4%
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +3,971 $3,277 72¢ $2.9K $-398 07-18 11:52
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No +2,110 $1,873 91¢ $1.9K +$40 07-02 08:35
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No -1,840 $-1,663 93¢ $-1711 $-48 06-25 18:49
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -1,464 $-1,403 96¢ $-1412 $-9 06-10 20:59
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +1,953 $1,331 66¢ $1.3K $-52 07-10 11:00
Trump out as President before 2027? No +1,250 $1,097 92¢ $1.2K +$59 07-12 00:23
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No -1,340 $-1,113 86¢ $-1145 $-32 06-20 08:30
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No +1,141 $886 92¢ $1.0K +$158 07-20 14:54
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +1,112 $981 90¢ $995 +$14 07-02 15:54
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +980 $882 92¢ $897 +$15 07-14 15:35
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes -955 $-940 89¢ $-852 +$88 07-04 05:16
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +2,349 $762 36¢ $834 +$71 07-13 16:37
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +902 $806 86¢ $780 $-26 07-19 14:39
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -400 $-420 90¢ $-358 +$62 07-20 10:43
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Yes -1,085 $-612 32¢ $-347 +$264 06-12 09:15
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No -187 $-168 95¢ $-178 $-10 06-15 07:34
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No -178 $-172 96¢ $-170 +$2 06-26 15:09
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +200 $156 82¢ $165 +$9 06-27 04:35
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -163 $-149 86¢ $-141 +$8 06-14 17:50
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +103 $46 70¢ $72 +$27 07-17 12:50
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No +280 $203 12¢ $32 $-171 06-08 05:25
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes -44 $-59 54¢ $-23 +$36 06-12 08:33
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No +20 $20 98¢ $20 +$0 07-15 21:57
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +25 $18 74¢ $19 +$1 07-08 21:16
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +0 $-20 56¢ $0 +$20 07-20 20:09