Realized P&L
+$570
Unrealized P&L
-$182
Hit rate
94.6%
Resolved
22
Trades
7,904
lifetime
Volume
$620.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$78
Open exposure
$8.40K
16 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-10 00:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Other
56% 67% +$476
Politics
35% 94% +$94
Crypto
4%
Sports
3%
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 176 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
ECB rate hike in 2026? Yes -1,152 $-1,112 99¢ $-1144 $-31 06-04 09:34
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No +1,200 $1,059 90¢ $1.1K +$21 06-07 12:41
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -1,009 $-994 99¢ $-997 $-3 06-01 17:48
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Yes -1,085 $-611 72¢ $-781 $-170 06-03 07:06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No -705 $-675 98¢ $-688 $-13 06-01 12:42
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +1,271 $800 46¢ $591 $-209 06-07 22:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -700 $-652 82¢ $-578 +$75 06-10 00:38
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No +550 $489 89¢ $491 +$2 06-06 02:03
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +520 $398 82¢ $426 +$28 06-05 01:22
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No -405 $-384 94¢ $-380 +$4 06-08 00:27
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +676 $326 50¢ $342 +$16 06-01 11:27
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +300 $223 78¢ $236 +$12 05-31 20:01
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No -300 $-219 73¢ $-219 +$0 06-07 22:16
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No +280 $203 70¢ $196 $-7 06-08 05:25
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +200 $177 95¢ $189 +$12 06-06 19:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -369 $-141 16¢ $-61 +$80 05-31 15:04