Willing-Drill — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$192

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

53.6%

Resolved (90d)

1,611

Trades (90d)

3,170

27,353 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$3.49K

$38.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 11-14 16:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 272 days

Categories

Other

91% 22% +$469

Sports

9% 59% +$43

Politics

0% 75% +$14

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$4

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 100 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	-7	-$5	95¢	$-6	-$1	05-06 16:51
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?	No	-7	-$5	75¢	$-5	-$1	06-11 02:58
Sabres vs. Stars	Stars	+2	$1	56¢	$1	+$0	11-14 16:51
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs	Oilers	+2	$1	56¢	$1	$0	11-14 16:44
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	-10	-$3	4¢	$-0	+$2	06-13 04:24
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	-10	-$2	2¢	$-0	+$2	06-13 04:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in toronto on march 5 2026 5corhigher	21	$802	632	757	-125	Yes	+$572	03-05 16:02
highest temperature in seoul on march 9 2026 7c	14	$459	301	301	+0	Yes	+$143	03-09 11:53
highest temperature in seoul on march 6 2026 4c	13	$418	327	327	+0	Yes	-$44	03-06 05:38
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14?	41	$335	1,838	5	+1,833	Yes	-$325	05-14 17:27
highest temperature in toronto on march 6 2026 2c	24	$298	240	240	+0	Yes	+$173	03-07 05:08
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14?	22	$272	178	178	+0	No	+$47	05-14 16:41
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29?	10	$233	333	333	+0	Yes	+$231	04-29 15:13
highest temperature in seoul on march 6 2026 5c	18	$222	329	359	-30	No	-$69	03-06 04:44
highest temperature in toronto on march 10 2026 18corhigher	4	$198	196	196	+0	Yes	+$192	03-10 16:11
highest temperature in singapore on march 29 2026 31c	15	$165	107	107	+0	Yes	+$45	03-29 08:50
highest temperature in buenos aires on march 6 2026 25corhigher	8	$161	83	103	-20	Yes	+$24	03-06 15:07
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13?	4	$153	152	152	+0	Yes	+$150	06-13 17:31
highest temperature in buenos aires on march 5 2026 28corhigher	6	$135	76	76	+0	Yes	+$16	03-05 15:09
highest temperature in buenos aires on march 7 2026 28c	6	$126	120	120	+0	Yes	+$114	03-08 03:55
highest temperature in london on march 4 2026 12corbelow	13	$125	85	85	+0	Yes	+$42	03-05 03:13
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 26?	9	$121	114	114	+0	Yes	+$106	05-27 01:49
highest temperature in seoul on march 10 2026 8corhigher	11	$109	87	97	-10	No	+$9	03-10 04:07
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12?	11	$107	111	111	+0	Yes	+$103	05-12 16:23
highest temperature in singapore on march 28 2026 32c	11	$103	118	28	+90	Yes	+$7	03-28 06:08
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 7?	4	$98	103	103	+0	Yes	+$95	07-07 07:10
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?	15	$95	78	73	+5	No	+$18	05-08 15:27
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 19?	12	$93	112	112	+0	Yes	+$74	07-19 11:31
highest temperature in toronto on march 19 2026 8corhigher	7	$90	48	68	-20	Yes	+$17	03-19 17:03
highest temperature in milan on march 21 2026 16corhigher	6	$85	38	65	-27	Yes	+$18	03-21 14:39
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 9?	2	$83	83	83	+0	Yes	+$82	05-09 08:19
highest temperature in london on march 8 2026 11corbelow	4	$80	48	48	+0	Yes	+$14	03-08 13:58
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 30?	10	$76	82	82	+0	Yes	+$56	04-30 04:49
highest temperature in singapore on april 5 2026 33c	14	$73	70	69	+1	Yes	+$57	04-05 06:35
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?	2	$72	71	71	+0	Yes	+$70	07-23 00:19
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on May 5?	8	$71	50	50	+0	Yes	+$19	05-05 09:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 16:51:11	Sabres vs. Stars	Stars	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x33cdf7…
11-14 16:44:52	Oilers vs. Maple Leafs	Oilers	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x964bc2…
11-12 13:49:46	Wild vs. Maple Leafs	Wild	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x4c4602…
11-05 06:38:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 6?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x02d4a2…
11-03 04:14:00	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xce527f…
11-03 04:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x663365…
11-03 03:28:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xb3e51e…
11-03 03:16:54	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xee10e1…
11-03 03:13:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 3?	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x0df936…
11-03 02:12:48	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x06547b…
11-03 02:11:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xe7dbf8…
11-03 02:11:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0x874803…
11-03 02:07:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xfaba8b…
11-01 10:42:24	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	2¢	$2	0x44227e…
11-01 07:13:46	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x0086e5…
11-01 07:13:45	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x8f6fcd…
11-01 07:07:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe4c612…
11-01 07:03:15	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x94c1a9…
11-01 06:43:25	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6a73b1…
11-01 06:29:37	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x26cf1e…
11-01 06:19:40	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x3fef03…
11-01 05:59:48	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xe68830…
11-01 05:53:25	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xddca3f…
11-01 05:49:37	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x29fefb…
11-01 05:01:22	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xdbb219…
11-01 05:01:13	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xf5f8b9…
10-31 09:19:39	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	13	5¢	$1	0x915b18…
10-31 09:19:39	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x5a9ba4…
10-31 08:12:43	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x1069f3…
10-31 08:10:00	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0xe6b990…
10-31 08:09:43	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xeedce7…
10-31 08:09:43	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x6e6ca0…
10-31 07:27:57	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x9386aa…
10-30 12:50:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0xa57643…
10-30 12:50:07	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x70e267…
10-30 09:43:37	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x7ad239…
10-30 08:50:13	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x4935b6…
10-30 07:54:22	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	63	0¢	$0	0xee97fa…
10-30 07:54:22	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0xb41b1d…
10-30 07:48:36	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0x5c14d3…
10-30 07:46:52	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x79fef7…
10-30 07:33:54	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7cf12b…
10-30 06:37:57	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x032acc…
10-30 06:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x0b3b48…
10-30 06:18:10	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x77bbeb…
10-30 06:12:42	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on October 30?	Yes	SELL	43	1¢	$0	0x2dae97…
10-30 05:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on October 30?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xcd5249…
10-30 05:33:30	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x479a86…
10-30 05:33:24	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf4aa6e…
10-30 05:32:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x75992f…
10-30 05:31:48	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe2ef0a…
10-30 05:23:51	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x663e48…
10-30 04:21:39	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x0a77e5…
10-30 04:21:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	49	8¢	$4	0x2672ff…
10-30 04:20:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on October 30?	Yes	SELL	129	1¢	$1	0x680e8c…
10-30 04:18:57	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0xea15e0…
10-30 04:18:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xbbe3bd…
10-30 04:18:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0x4da0e9…
10-30 04:17:33	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x5ce24c…
10-30 03:22:45	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xbe0cc7…
10-30 03:22:36	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x2563fe…
10-30 03:21:27	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x3304b6…
10-30 03:19:27	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x46551e…
10-30 02:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on October 30?	Yes	BUY	129	1¢	$1	0x13a18a…
10-30 02:17:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	92	0¢	$0	0x0b1e1d…
10-30 02:15:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	64	2¢	$1	0x0adf41…
10-30 02:15:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5c28a3…
10-30 02:14:36	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x0c7429…
10-30 02:12:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x1300f2…
10-30 02:05:16	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x237c13…
10-30 02:04:19	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xb4ed46…
10-30 01:56:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x6a5291…
10-30 01:52:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x26e154…
10-30 01:32:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0xc6b286…
10-30 01:32:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x567f56…
10-30 01:21:10	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xac6868…
10-29 15:11:17	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x63c37a…
10-29 04:20:50	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	3	23¢	$1	0xbb5d49…
10-29 03:31:41	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x8c245b…
10-29 03:10:58	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xdf2b12…
10-29 02:28:32	Knicks vs. Bulls	Knicks	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0xc4700b…
10-29 02:17:05	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x335421…
10-29 02:13:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x945af5…
10-29 02:13:53	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7cc93a…
10-29 01:42:58	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x66021b…
10-29 01:37:02	Knicks vs. Bulls	Knicks	BUY	10	34¢	$4	0xe55ce0…
10-29 01:33:40	Knicks vs. Bulls	Knicks	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x57134b…
10-29 01:33:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xbe02a6…
10-29 01:31:02	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x312630…
10-28 09:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xa7bc8a…
10-28 09:20:13	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x49e446…
10-28 09:12:41	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0x8735da…
10-28 09:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x383879…
10-28 08:10:41	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x3f635c…
10-28 08:10:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x88e862…
10-28 08:06:55	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x1c1381…
10-28 07:07:25	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x5dd10e…
10-28 05:52:23	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x886255…
10-28 05:15:28	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x0bee8d…
10-28 05:14:47	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0xd10831…