Teeming-Chafe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$80

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

89.7%

Resolved

112

Trades

287

lifetime

Volume

$43.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$151

Open exposure

$202

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-17 18:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

42% 96% +$47

Politics

29% 87% -$132

Crypto

19% 79% +$3

Tech

5% 83% +$1

Sports

4% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+206	$196	98¢	$202	+$6	09-17 18:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump out as president by march 31	17	$3.6K	2,282	1,472	+810	No	+$32	03-02 15:35
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	11	$2.6K	1,281	1,281	+0	Yes	+$1	02-14 14:08
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	4	$2.0K	994	990	+4	Yes	+$0	03-07 07:31
will hillary say president 5 times during her epstein testimony	11	$2.0K	984	984	+0	No	+$8	03-05 13:37
will hillary say island during her epstein testimony	4	$1.9K	966	966	+0	No	+$0	03-05 14:28
will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	10	$1.7K	846	846	+0	No	+$1	02-07 00:53
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	5	$1.6K	789	789	+0	No	+$0	01-10 03:42
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	11	$1.1K	607	607	+0	Yes	+$3	04-17 11:55
will edgex launch a token in 2025	4	$1.1K	386	717	-331	Yes	+$0	01-02 05:54
will bad bunny perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	9	$980	492	492	+0	Yes	+$1	02-08 06:24
will hillary say white house during her epstein testimony	2	$960	481	481	+0	No	+$1	03-05 14:13
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	1	$949	951	0	+951	No	+$2	03-03 05:00
will bnb reach 1200 in february	4	$861	431	431	+0	No	+$0	02-26 16:00
will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	2	$856	429	429	+0	No	+$0	02-18 05:32
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	2	$856	429	429	+0	No	+$0	02-18 02:04
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$848	428	428	+0	No	+$0	02-15 09:21
will ethereum reach 4000 in february 2026	2	$848	426	426	+0	No	+$0	02-12 15:06
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$841	424	424	+0	Yes	+$4	02-04 14:52
will bitcoin dip to 45k in january 2026	2	$822	412	412	+0	No	+$0	01-11 13:55
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$820	411	411	+0	No	+$0	01-13 06:46
will bitcoin dip to 40k in january 2026	2	$817	410	410	+0	No	+$0	01-09 09:17
nicols maduro released from custody by january 9 2026	3	$790	411	380	+31	No	+$0	01-09 10:40
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	2	$772	387	387	+0	No	+$1	01-03 06:53
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$758	383	383	+0	No	+$5	06-28 14:54
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	4	$748	388	361	+27	No	+$0	01-04 08:28
will trump say president xi during meetings with chancellor merz	1	$540	542	0	+542	No	+$1	03-04 02:20
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	2	$444	222	222	+0	Yes	+$0	02-09 12:20
will the dhs shutdown last 7 days or more	1	$429	430	0	+430	Yes	+$0	02-19 13:04
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 15 2026	1	$428	428	0	+428	No	+$0	02-16 02:57
will the us next strike iran on february 2 2026 et	1	$422	422	0	+422	No	+$0	02-05 05:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-17 18:23:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	206	95¢	$196	0x3f53d2…
08-13 02:29:30	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf94757…
07-18 05:06:48	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xfb49e6…
07-18 05:06:00	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x2ec092…
07-08 03:40:56	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x1b5889…
07-05 13:11:29	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa12fb0…
06-28 14:54:19	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xbe18ee…
06-28 14:30:11	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x8b9119…
06-26 14:28:01	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xfe2664…
06-25 03:09:35	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	183	99¢	$182	0x5cca1d…
06-23 12:40:22	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	183	99¢	$181	0x98315a…
06-21 08:28:23	will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x0c9b44…
06-21 08:09:19	will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x4592a5…
06-21 03:21:08	will wti crude oil wti hit high 200 in june	No	SELL	180	100¢	$180	0xcfc05c…
06-15 06:55:31	will wti crude oil wti hit high 200 in june	No	BUY	180	99¢	$178	0xa78a82…
06-10 11:51:54	will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xfd9ad5…
06-02 04:44:38	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	160	99¢	$158	0x0b73c7…
06-01 13:22:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	160	98¢	$157	0x1622fe…
06-01 03:41:44	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x84a8fb…
05-28 13:17:32	Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x0858d6…
05-28 13:16:57	US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8a0896…
05-28 13:16:13	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x091518…
05-28 13:15:26	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x32cb07…
05-28 13:14:14	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x675306…
05-25 04:57:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	SELL	188	99¢	$187	0x728f9f…
05-24 14:03:41	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x0b1579…
05-23 14:20:26	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	188	98¢	$185	0xcda805…
05-22 10:19:27	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x1685f4…
05-21 09:15:32	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0bf809…
05-21 04:55:30	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x7f9a51…
05-21 04:52:13	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	211	100¢	$211	0x00e0e8…
05-19 12:59:44	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	206	100¢	$205	0x409984…
05-18 11:19:07	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0xf97258…
05-18 11:12:24	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x66d8c3…
05-18 11:02:07	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x90f5d7…
05-18 10:57:13	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0xe6537f…
05-18 10:56:41	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x7bb57d…
05-18 10:53:20	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x562691…
05-18 10:44:58	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x1de2a4…
05-18 10:43:37	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xbbd522…
05-18 10:24:45	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x41bd6c…
05-18 10:06:26	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xc61385…
05-18 10:04:32	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x4cba48…
05-18 10:04:30	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xf370c1…
05-18 10:02:19	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x4cb821…
05-18 09:57:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xc39ba2…
05-18 09:54:32	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x5add0b…
05-17 02:39:59	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	158	98¢	$155	0x1d346d…
05-17 02:20:23	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0efca3…
05-14 10:24:16	Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	BUY	162	100¢	$161	0x8656fe…
05-11 04:05:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	161	98¢	$158	0xc07faf…
05-10 05:54:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	161	97¢	$157	0xb089bf…
05-08 15:18:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	165	97¢	$160	0xfb832f…
05-08 01:21:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	165	96¢	$159	0x0d1c8c…
05-03 07:41:08	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Anthropic" or "Claude" this week?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x8258ac…
05-03 05:47:14	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "OpenAI" or "ChatGPT" this week?	No	SELL	61	99¢	$60	0xcc6f3b…
05-03 04:59:20	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "OpenAI" or "ChatGPT" this week?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0x3bc728…
05-03 04:58:32	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Anthropic" or "Claude" this week?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xcdc694…
05-03 02:03:32	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	160	99¢	$159	0x52d509…
04-30 15:38:44	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	160	98¢	$157	0x464ca8…
04-25 13:55:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xf7f015…
04-25 13:50:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x516ef3…
04-25 13:42:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x70a956…
04-25 12:56:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	SELL	132	99¢	$131	0x016193…
04-23 18:22:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	159	99¢	$157	0x28650f…
04-19 12:35:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xa5e320…
04-19 12:07:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	125	99¢	$124	0x6c6651…
04-18 23:12:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	153	99¢	$151	0xdada71…
04-18 13:49:02	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbd9bcf…
04-17 11:55:16	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	160	94¢	$151	0x36b11b…
04-16 21:31:56	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe4902a…
04-15 15:31:34	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	160	94¢	$151	0x8a36b4…
04-14 12:11:49	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	160	95¢	$152	0x75bedb…
04-13 03:29:21	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	103	94¢	$97	0x1fc8d0…
04-13 03:28:49	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xfd41d3…
04-13 03:25:57	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	55	94¢	$52	0x7e4939…
04-12 04:44:09	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	160	95¢	$152	0xc58c5f…
04-09 21:51:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	160	95¢	$151	0xed9f75…
04-08 08:21:11	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x344ecb…
04-08 08:20:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x9794b9…
04-07 11:53:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	102	92¢	$94	0x15cca6…
04-07 04:55:11	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x0e97c3…
03-29 14:46:48	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	No	SELL	146	99¢	$145	0x40ec85…
03-26 13:52:39	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	No	BUY	117	99¢	$115	0x160ad8…
03-26 13:46:13	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x874d88…
03-26 13:45:47	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xcc9637…
03-26 13:32:11	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x527962…
03-26 13:31:47	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	127	95¢	$121	0x1cd8fb…
03-25 07:20:09	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	116	94¢	$110	0x233818…
03-25 07:08:09	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xa40cba…
03-23 02:34:43	will mrbeast hit 115 billion views by march 31	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x9b1113…
03-20 02:41:27	will israel take military action in gaza on march 18 2026	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$5	0x911e0f…
03-19 15:14:45	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x245215…
03-16 09:57:13	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	123	100¢	$122	0xc2af61…
03-14 12:05:31	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$122	0x91b82a…
03-14 12:05:11	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	SELL	122	100¢	$122	0xde041d…
03-14 04:38:25	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x3694a8…
03-14 04:32:59	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x233e87…
03-12 09:10:11	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0x09e146…
03-11 06:22:17	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0x34c7fa…