Realized P&L
+$12.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.24K
Hit rate
94.2%
Resolved
267
Trades
1,792
lifetime
Volume
$347.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$194
Open exposure
$10.8K
20 positions
First seen
2026-04-24
last 10-28 20:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 57 days
Categories
Other
54% 73% +$11,775
Tech
21% 100% +$134
Politics
15% 100% +$59
Crypto
6% 100% +$326
Sports
5% 83% +$223
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
35 active days in 12wk • peak 90 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +6,000 $1,958 46¢ $2.8K +$832 09-26 07:44
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +2,407 $2,235 97¢ $2.3K +$95 10-27 03:41
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +2,000 $1,900 97¢ $1.9K +$31 09-13 06:08
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No +1,000 $950 96¢ $963 +$13 10-04 04:19
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +1,280 $867 73¢ $929 +$61 10-10 13:12
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +657 $630 98¢ $647 +$17 10-20 21:48
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +1,200 $164 26¢ $318 +$154 10-28 16:40
putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027 No +300 $252 92¢ $274 +$22 07-24 19:06
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +150 $142 98¢ $148 +$6 08-09 22:01
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No +150 $145 97¢ $145 $0 09-28 04:07
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +200 $88 44¢ $89 +$1 10-28 16:10
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes +100 $83 72¢ $72 -$12 08-19 00:00
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +500 $42 14¢ $68 +$26 10-28 06:59
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +17 $17 100¢ $17 +$0 09-08 21:28
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +12 $11 97¢ $12 +$0 07-02 12:38
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? Yes +500 $20 2¢ $8 -$12 10-26 17:13
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +11 $7 66¢ $7 +$0 10-15 14:27
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No +6 $3 98¢ $6 +$3 08-21 17:42
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,000 $4 0¢ $4 +$0 09-29 10:33
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes +97 $0 0¢ $0 +$1 10-26 17:26