Tepid-Hazel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

71.3%

Resolved

Trades

409

lifetime

Volume

$24.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

$25

1 position

First seen

2026-04-01

last 06-17 12:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

85% 60% +$7

Other

14% — —

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-61	$-30	42¢	$-25	+$5	06-06 19:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	37	$7.7K	6,205	6,589	-383	open	—	05-31 12:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	29	$3.1K	5,921	5,921	+0	open	—	04-27 20:50
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	57	$1.3K	5,306	3,709	+1,597	open	—	06-17 12:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	17	$999	2,077	2,077	+0	open	—	04-27 06:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	3	$931	840	840	+0	open	—	04-20 19:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	8	$790	952	952	+0	open	—	05-27 17:55
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	5	$664	391	391	+0	open	—	04-16 21:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	11	$549	854	854	+0	open	—	05-25 17:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$540	400	456	-56	open	—	06-06 11:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	8	$523	325	325	+0	open	—	04-21 17:40
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	11	$480	75,849	75,849	+0	open	—	04-27 06:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	6	$466	404	404	+0	open	—	04-30 16:10
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	6	$387	527	527	+0	open	—	04-20 16:48
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$378	274	204	+70	open	—	04-27 21:06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	10	$303	460	460	+0	open	—	04-26 12:52
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	5	$254	2,028	2,028	+0	open	—	04-20 14:50
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	3	$250	831	0	+831	open	—	04-12 10:35
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	2	$205	207	207	+0	Yes	+$5	04-26 18:20
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	8	$199	826	826	+0	open	—	05-27 17:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$197	124	124	+0	open	—	05-24 19:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	6	$190	246	241	+6	open	—	04-21 20:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	6	$187	183	183	+0	open	—	04-26 12:51
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$184	505	505	+0	open	—	04-21 20:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	6	$162	1,155	1,155	+0	open	—	04-25 06:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	4	$157	121	121	+0	open	—	04-26 12:43
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	5	$152	546	546	+0	open	—	04-30 16:13
will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	2	$140	374	0	+374	open	—	04-12 10:36
will voter turnout be 7477 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$128	78	78	+0	open	—	04-16 21:01
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	4	$121	577	577	+0	open	—	04-20 17:41
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	3	$110	128	59	+69	open	—	04-21 18:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 12:23:32	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,252	7¢	$83	0xc5bed9…
06-16 05:58:48	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,449	14¢	$200	0xc7d1e1…
06-16 05:58:10	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3,709	9¢	$317	0xc27afb…
06-08 22:42:06	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xf000a2…
06-08 15:48:01	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x5a49ac…
06-08 12:23:03	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	150	17¢	$26	0xa63404…
06-07 13:43:28	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x09460e…
06-07 11:31:55	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x176f14…
06-07 11:04:49	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x400c87…
06-07 11:04:39	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xaf75dc…
06-07 11:04:36	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x723f43…
06-07 11:03:57	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	46	19¢	$9	0x7fce90…
06-07 11:00:39	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x096171…
06-07 03:06:36	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0xb86d40…
06-07 00:52:00	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0xf3fda7…
06-07 00:51:42	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x86d2ed…
06-07 00:51:42	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x261909…
06-07 00:45:04	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xfb0663…
06-07 00:35:12	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x52835f…
06-07 00:25:19	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x95be7c…
06-07 00:25:09	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xb73ed7…
06-07 00:15:07	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x53bd76…
06-07 00:05:12	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x644381…
06-06 23:55:19	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x7ae376…
06-06 23:55:09	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x4e59ea…
06-06 23:35:13	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x77b35e…
06-06 23:35:01	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x178d0d…
06-06 22:45:13	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x2154ac…
06-06 22:35:31	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xa1103a…
06-06 22:35:24	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x1852c5…
06-06 22:25:21	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x94b31e…
06-06 22:25:19	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xb8e982…
06-06 22:25:18	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x9b016e…
06-06 22:25:16	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x6a7f0e…
06-06 22:25:16	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x0ecbb0…
06-06 22:25:15	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x002204…
06-06 22:25:12	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x3fbcd8…
06-06 22:15:13	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xc65213…
06-06 22:15:12	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x8c58ac…
06-06 22:15:12	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x8ba8a8…
06-06 22:15:12	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x79245f…
06-06 22:15:12	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x59ffcf…
06-06 22:15:10	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xf15eac…
06-06 22:15:10	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x72c9fa…
06-06 22:15:10	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x4ebf00…
06-06 22:15:10	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x406660…
06-06 22:15:10	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x2ac0dc…
06-06 22:15:10	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x09ab4b…
06-06 22:15:09	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xf43e2f…
06-06 22:15:09	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x252fdc…
06-06 22:09:15	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x7df6fa…
06-06 19:11:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	49¢	$30	0x69a107…
06-06 11:26:34	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	520	22¢	$114	0x62f7cc…
06-06 11:25:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	79¢	$34	0x8e7e0c…
05-31 18:21:51	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xdeaf73…
05-31 18:20:43	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	691	34¢	$232	0x435c45…
05-31 18:20:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	69¢	$29	0x8db0a3…
05-31 18:19:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	85	69¢	$59	0x082df9…
05-31 17:20:40	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	347	33¢	$115	0xc25133…
05-31 17:20:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	171	69¢	$118	0x996f74…
05-31 15:41:28	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	272	29¢	$78	0x27a4b8…
05-31 15:41:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	114	70¢	$80	0xcafeca…
05-31 12:57:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	108	98¢	$106	0x9f3ff1…
05-29 15:38:40	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	314	23¢	$72	0x188096…
05-29 15:38:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	48	72¢	$34	0x21a037…
05-29 15:38:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	53	76¢	$40	0x8f1f01…
05-28 17:52:07	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	129	8¢	$10	0x29368c…
05-28 00:02:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	400	55¢	$220	0x0925c9…
05-27 17:56:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	122	14¢	$17	0x931259…
05-27 17:55:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	SELL	53	25¢	$13	0xc59e21…
05-27 17:55:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	SELL	357	3¢	$10	0x0cb1af…
05-27 17:55:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	SELL	76	10¢	$8	0x061237…
05-27 17:55:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Yes	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0xfedcee…
05-27 17:55:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	102	30¢	$31	0x471490…
05-27 15:36:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	122	26¢	$32	0x335788…
05-27 15:36:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	108	74¢	$80	0xbafd80…
05-27 15:24:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	306	41¢	$125	0xf56447…
05-27 15:24:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	SELL	228	12¢	$27	0x87aa24…
05-27 15:23:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	SELL	357	6¢	$21	0xa4fb0e…
05-27 14:21:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0xdf683c…
05-27 14:21:01	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	714	7¢	$50	0x1bb909…
05-27 14:20:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	734	22¢	$161	0xa3e4cf…
05-27 14:20:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	761	23¢	$175	0x741bf5…
05-27 12:42:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0xc1ba6c…
05-27 12:40:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	104	53¢	$55	0x76605d…
05-27 12:40:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	SELL	57	87¢	$49	0x8de657…
05-27 12:40:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x63a584…
05-27 12:39:57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	SELL	54	12¢	$7	0xcde8c8…
05-27 07:50:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x99b17c…
05-27 07:49:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	78¢	$21	0xae5acc…
05-27 07:47:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x8e2066…
05-27 07:45:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	304	17¢	$52	0x233fe7…
05-27 07:40:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	82	77¢	$63	0xb2f2b9…
05-27 07:39:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0xeb3423…
05-27 07:39:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	329	77¢	$254	0x4e02d0…
05-26 05:30:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	206	40¢	$83	0xf02e64…
05-25 17:31:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	14¢	$16	0x7004ad…
05-25 17:31:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	170	56¢	$95	0xfbf2cc…
05-25 17:30:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x10e6d9…
05-25 17:30:28	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x6d541a…