Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
-$174
Hit rate
Resolved
0
Trades
975
lifetime
Volume
$42.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$43
Open exposure
$931
10 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 06-11 21:10
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Other
66%
Tech
30%
Politics
2%
Crypto
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
36 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +432 $326 81¢ $350 +$24 06-02 13:12
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No -299 $-310 99¢ $-296 +$14 06-04 12:37
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No +149 $140 100¢ $149 +$9 06-05 16:16
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No +79 $45 75¢ $59 +$14 06-05 16:16
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? No +30 $19 98¢ $30 +$11 06-01 12:55
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? Yes +36 $23 68¢ $25 +$2 06-03 19:45
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? Yes -80 $-28 20¢ $-16 +$12 06-06 02:55
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Yes -232 $-226 $-4 +$222 06-11 21:10
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes -20 $-3 $-1 +$1 06-05 16:05
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes +580 $482 $1 $-482 06-06 11:43