Wet-Clam — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$771

Unrealized P&L

+$65

Hit rate

90.0%

Resolved

182

Trades

1,062

lifetime

Volume

$46.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$44

Open exposure

$391

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-30 20:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Other

67% 81% +$178

Tech

29% 62% -$914

Politics

2% 67% -$43

Crypto

1% 57% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No		+432	$326	91¢	$391	+$65	06-02 13:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	56	$4.2K	2,274	2,051	+223	No	+$17	01-19 11:18
will gpt 6 be released by march 31 2026	72	$2.3K	1,262	1,281	-19	No	+$47	03-27 02:43
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	2	$1.4K	720	720	+0	Yes	+$22	05-19 19:13
will google gemini 3 score at least 70 on the frontiermath benchmark	34	$1.4K	740	740	+0	No	+$15	01-29 05:35
will google have the best ai model for math on march 31	24	$1.1K	576	646	-70	No	+$25	03-27 02:05
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	16	$1.1K	498	705	-207	No	+$24	06-04 12:37
moltbook shutdown by feb 28	15	$1.1K	770	420	+350	No	+$19	02-15 20:12
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	10	$1.1K	911	200	+711	No	+$15	05-28 17:02
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$1.0K	505	505	+0	No	+$5	04-28 15:54
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	10	$996	775	357	+418	No	-$324	06-11 21:10
will google gemini 3 score at least 50 on the frontiermath benchmark	19	$957	720	317	+403	No	+$39	01-31 16:59
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	6	$908	931	0	+931	No	+$22	04-24 23:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$864	507	506	+1	No	+$136	05-11 12:18
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on the frontiermath benchmark	21	$864	679	350	+329	No	+$36	01-31 13:56
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	16	$848	1,140	1,100	+40	open	—	09-30 20:51
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	20	$846	654	242	+412	No	+$20	05-01 03:35
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	5	$834	420	420	+0	No	+$4	01-08 02:53
will deepseek have the best ai model for math on march 31	16	$790	454	375	+79	No	+$13	03-26 13:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$782	400	400	+0	No	+$18	05-18 17:46
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	2	$776	780	0	+780	No	+$4	05-19 19:16
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	12	$766	426	426	+0	No	+$24	05-27 10:01
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	24	$732	410	404	+6	No	+$22	03-31 13:22
gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	23	$726	520	472	+48	No	+$74	04-14 13:51
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	10	$688	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	07-06 13:08
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?	15	$683	427	300	+127	No	+$16	05-04 21:18
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	31	$648	349	349	+0	No	+$8	03-31 19:37
will deepseek have the best ai model for coding on march 31	10	$627	327	327	+0	No	+$4	03-26 12:08
will google gemini 3 score at least 60 on the frontiermath benchmark by	14	$614	430	237	+193	No	+$20	01-21 08:47
will google have the best ai model for coding on march 31	16	$611	322	322	+0	No	+$15	03-26 12:09
another us strike on venezuela by january 10	15	$609	968	1,088	-120	No	+$0	01-05 22:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-30 20:51:21	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x96a8ed…
09-30 20:11:51	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	74¢	$27	0x5c9059…
07-16 21:43:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xde323f…
07-16 21:00:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:55 UTC	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x56e465…
07-16 20:59:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:55 UTC	Down	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x02dc57…
07-16 20:58:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x52892a…
07-13 20:44:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x59601d…
07-13 20:44:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:40 UTC	Down	SELL	69	96¢	$67	0x431bf7…
07-13 20:42:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x405a29…
07-06 13:10:13	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	SELL	657	18¢	$121	0xde097e…
07-06 13:08:32	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	903	22¢	$201	0xefa489…
07-02 02:47:20	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	49	35¢	$17	0xa896f3…
06-17 15:35:22	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	SELL	150	25¢	$38	0x2e5aba…
06-11 21:10:28	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	96¢	$63	0x2e52d6…
06-09 11:39:28	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	361	28¢	$100	0xa285e0…
06-09 11:30:52	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	726	28¢	$200	0xb93438…
06-09 11:30:46	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x06fd90…
06-09 08:52:00	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	5¢	$11	0x4eb6a5…
06-07 11:15:27	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0x6d970d…
06-07 07:47:55	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	96¢	$88	0xde29a9…
06-06 11:43:18	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x5f0acd…
06-06 02:55:25	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	35¢	$5	0x693db3…
06-05 16:16:22	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	79	57¢	$45	0xe3843f…
06-05 16:16:10	Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	149	94¢	$140	0x4ccbdb…
06-05 16:05:13	Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x4f8318…
06-05 16:02:13	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	Yes	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xfc8a60…
06-05 16:01:51	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$35	0x274d38…
06-05 12:58:18	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x0b8894…
06-05 03:53:57	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x0296f4…
06-04 20:18:51	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x4dc5ce…
06-04 19:15:31	will openai file for an ipo by june 5 2026	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xf63882…
06-04 19:04:15	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0xe5015d…
06-04 12:37:55	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	499	100¢	$498	0x19f4c5…
06-03 19:47:52	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xac6fe2…
06-03 19:47:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xd90e8d…
06-03 19:45:39	OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x38b72b…
06-03 19:45:34	OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x41c260…
06-03 16:10:34	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	199	93¢	$185	0x9e8101…
06-02 13:28:42	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0xdbb20f…
06-02 13:28:07	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	SELL	60	40¢	$24	0x5a5fc7…
06-02 13:26:57	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	140	75¢	$105	0xd8013a…
06-02 13:24:21	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	26¢	$8	0x6da80a…
06-02 13:24:16	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x64c0d9…
06-02 13:12:52	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xc80235…
06-02 13:12:43	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	60	76¢	$46	0x3fdcab…
06-01 21:40:35	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	93	75¢	$70	0x1b7493…
06-01 21:34:50	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	19	75¢	$14	0x41611e…
06-01 21:34:38	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	150	75¢	$112	0xf9e9cb…
06-01 15:56:28	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x852ee3…
06-01 15:52:15	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x4ff405…
06-01 13:07:25	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x6a57d3…
06-01 13:05:25	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x6ccb12…
06-01 13:05:11	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0xfc4326…
06-01 12:55:40	Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?	No	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0x355485…
06-01 12:54:42	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	89¢	$66	0x938bd4…
06-01 12:54:34	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x5d2836…
06-01 12:53:48	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x6ee26c…
05-30 07:26:59	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	35¢	$21	0x1a806a…
05-28 17:02:51	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	408	98¢	$400	0xf45e53…
05-27 16:11:14	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0x760b43…
05-27 16:11:04	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0x649c16…
05-27 16:10:23	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0x7eda75…
05-27 16:09:33	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x1f1401…
05-27 16:08:49	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	90¢	$207	0x5aa506…
05-27 10:01:45	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x1fd1f1…
05-25 17:18:44	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0x58b252…
05-25 15:50:59	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	202	98¢	$199	0x495e6f…
05-25 13:11:30	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x23a330…
05-25 11:56:18	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	303	99¢	$300	0x2a714f…
05-25 11:55:03	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	531	94¢	$500	0x6757d0…
05-25 08:47:36	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xde0b9f…
05-25 08:44:51	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	157	98¢	$155	0x230864…
05-25 07:04:57	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x006d8e…
05-24 19:00:43	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x56a62c…
05-24 10:51:37	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0x1e0abd…
05-20 21:06:13	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x3e7ff7…
05-19 19:17:40	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0xbd88ef…
05-19 19:16:35	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$80	0xa30cd0…
05-19 19:14:57	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	700	99¢	$696	0x03e406…
05-19 19:13:53	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	720	100¢	$719	0x0a282c…
05-19 12:52:24	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	92¢	$3	0x6a2607…
05-19 10:19:57	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	720	97¢	$698	0x1b6267…
05-18 20:18:54	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x4bccaa…
05-18 18:16:12	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xc4427d…
05-18 17:52:47	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	91¢	$31	0xed5b39…
05-18 17:52:27	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x6c7a6b…
05-18 17:48:15	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	92¢	$276	0x056e11…
05-18 17:46:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	400	100¢	$400	0xc5ea9c…
05-18 15:30:32	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x60ebf3…
05-17 07:13:03	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	65¢	$3	0xcb3cca…
05-16 21:05:04	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x7453ce…
05-16 19:29:29	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	SELL	15	46¢	$7	0xe34af3…
05-16 19:29:29	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x5ae9b0…
05-16 19:29:29	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	SELL	131	46¢	$60	0x2393df…
05-16 04:31:43	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x16fe8b…
05-15 21:45:13	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	59	92¢	$54	0xfb511f…
05-15 14:40:00	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x5f5082…
05-15 13:03:46	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xb4263a…
05-15 10:48:44	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0xa9fdef…
05-15 10:46:19	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	97	2¢	$2	0xf5fe8b…