Realized P&L (30d)
+$239
Unrealized P&L
-$129
Hit rate
54.9%
Resolved (30d)
377
Trades (30d)
531
3,540 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$6.19K
$19.2K lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$519
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-28
last 11-01 00:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 108 days
Categories
Other
71% 41% -$105
Politics
13% 15% +$374
Sports
13% 50% -$54
Tech
2% 0% -$14
Crypto
0% 83% -$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 96 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +322 $161 47¢ $151 -$10 10-29 09:14
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +327 $142 30¢ $100 -$42 10-30 06:57
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +230 $97 41¢ $93 -$4 10-30 15:06
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? No +185 $100 30¢ $56 -$44 10-29 08:09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +40 $13 34¢ $13 +$1 10-27 08:00
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +273 $3 4¢ $10 +$7 10-26 10:57
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +36 $10 25¢ $9 -$1 09-11 16:50
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +60 $10 15¢ $9 -$1 10-28 08:26
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes +143 $10 4¢ $6 -$4 10-29 07:39
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +83 $10 8¢ $6 -$4 10-26 10:57
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +111 $10 6¢ $6 -$4 10-26 12:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? Yes +77 $10 8¢ $6 -$4 10-22 06:31
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +22 $5 24¢ $5 +$0 11-01 00:25
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +18 $5 30¢ $5 +$0 10-30 08:20
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No +11 $5 48¢ $5 $0 10-30 12:40
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +23 $5 22¢ $5 +$0 10-30 11:05
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +14 $5 34¢ $5 $0 10-31 04:50
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes +14 $5 34¢ $5 $0 10-31 04:50
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? No +18 $5 24¢ $4 -$1 10-30 12:30
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +20 $5 20¢ $4 -$1 10-31 04:05
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes +556 $5 1¢ $4 -$1 10-29 07:39
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +400 $2 1¢ $3 +$1 10-26 10:58
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes +2,000 $2 0¢ $3 +$1 10-29 07:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +91 $10 1¢ $1 -$9 10-26 06:57
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No +5 $1 12¢ $1 -$1 09-04 20:42
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes +24 $0 2¢ $0 +$0 10-28 08:27
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes +4 $1 11¢ $0 -$1 08-31 20:13
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +6 $0 2¢ $0 $0 09-28 20:39
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? Yes +62 $5 0¢ $0 -$5 10-22 06:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? Yes +24 $3 0¢ $0 -$3 09-21 02:38