Salty-Lanai — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$421

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

64.6%

Resolved

125

Trades

333

lifetime

Volume

$9.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$443

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 11-12 21:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

63% 66% +$231

Politics

31% 44% +$168

Sports

3% 67% +$11

Tech

2% 50% +$9

Crypto

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+115	$110	97¢	$111	+$1	09-12 19:35
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+116	$100	90¢	$104	+$4	10-15 18:29
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	+105	$100	99¢	$103	+$3	10-07 19:21
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+115	$100	86¢	$99	-$1	08-11 14:47
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+14	$10	90¢	$13	+$3	09-22 20:36
Plague case in US by December 31?	No	+11	$10	98¢	$11	+$1	10-07 19:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$1.1K	939	939	+0	No	-$10	04-22 16:55
atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	7	$1.0K	955	955	+0	Alexander Zverev	-$36	06-07 17:34
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	11	$778	653	653	+0	No	+$68	04-21 16:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	3	$526	868	868	+0	No	+$126	04-24 15:49
will 80 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 362	3	$279	178	178	+0	Yes	+$59	04-19 08:52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$274	200	133	+66	Yes	+$40	07-29 14:54
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	3	$255	200	200	+0	No	+$55	04-19 08:03
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	3	$236	129	129	+0	Yes	+$16	07-09 21:32
Fed rate hike in 2026?	3	$228	242	242	+0	Yes	+$8	07-15 21:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	2	$225	156	156	+0	Yes	+$25	05-21 19:27
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	4	$150	157	0	+157	Yes	+$7	09-15 06:19
fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 total 2pt5	3	$130	153	0	+153	Under	+$23	06-19 21:00
Will England win on 2026-07-01?	3	$130	137	0	+137	Yes	+$7	07-01 17:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	9	$124	164	164	+0	No	+$4	05-06 13:11
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	3	$124	147	147	+0	Yes	+$4	09-22 20:39
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5	2	$110	133	0	+133	Under	+$23	06-14 18:55
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	2	$110	115	0	+115	open	—	09-12 19:35
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	2	$101	105	105	+0	Yes	+$81	07-15 20:52
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	1	$100	116	0	+116	open	—	10-15 18:29
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	1	$100	115	0	+115	open	—	08-11 14:47
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	1	$100	104	0	+104	No	+$4	05-21 13:17
Plague pandemic in 2026?	1	$100	105	0	+105	open	—	10-07 19:21
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	10-26 21:32
Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-23 13:11
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	10	$89	98	98	+0	Joao Fonseca	+$9	05-31 20:42
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$87	171	171	+0	No	+$7	06-30 21:19
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	5	$79	103	103	+0	No	+$20	04-17 14:28
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1?	4	$64	106	106	+0	No	+$4	06-01 18:50
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$63	67	67	+0	No	-$37	09-12 19:37
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	5	$60	91	91	+0	No	-$20	07-07 17:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 21:02:28	Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup in 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x135cc9…
11-11 21:20:19	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	162	15¢	$25	0x902ef7…
10-29 19:34:34	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	SELL	26	33¢	$8	0xe14c56…
10-29 19:32:33	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	934	3¢	$30	0x1a6f12…
10-29 10:54:55	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	476	2¢	$10	0xd028a0…
10-29 10:53:41	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	458	2¢	$10	0x823f02…
10-27 21:44:45	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x981b07…
10-27 21:40:17	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2f13fc…
10-26 21:32:53	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xc623ac…
10-23 18:18:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x14ac23…
10-20 20:48:51	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x81a1ab…
10-20 20:46:21	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$11	0x2bba7b…
10-20 20:44:48	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xb27f37…
10-20 20:44:24	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xbcc6f2…
10-20 19:53:05	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x3b0bcb…
10-20 19:52:06	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	125	8¢	$10	0x9de7db…
10-15 18:29:55	Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xb9e39d…
10-14 06:13:38	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	81	12¢	$10	0xec7245…
10-14 06:13:28	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	81	12¢	$10	0x87db96…
10-07 19:24:04	Plague case in US by December 31?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x06df9d…
10-07 19:21:09	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xda7be9…
10-07 18:00:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	62	15¢	$9	0xfe73d4…
10-07 17:59:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	43	83¢	$35	0x28528c…
10-05 20:10:08	Will Belgium win on 2026-10-05?	No	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x63dc5a…
10-02 06:51:39	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xc9ebea…
10-01 18:11:17	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x9fa87c…
10-01 18:10:18	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xe1aa0d…
10-01 18:08:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x9921fb…
09-30 11:48:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xfa052f…
09-29 18:40:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	61	25¢	$15	0x16c4ff…
09-29 05:53:05	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xaaf528…
09-22 20:39:05	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	147	43¢	$64	0xc4cac6…
09-22 20:36:23	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x229d5b…
09-21 08:37:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x375e58…
09-21 08:37:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xdbadfd…
09-21 08:36:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0xb54103…
09-16 16:42:54	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	72¢	$22	0xfa0c64…
09-15 07:35:28	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x18f7b2…
09-15 07:35:04	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x0d565f…
09-15 06:19:07	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x34183e…
09-14 19:11:45	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xd2449f…
09-14 19:09:13	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0x30b44f…
09-14 19:06:25	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0x09f1d1…
09-14 07:45:43	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x82c204…
09-14 07:44:15	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x5b95f1…
09-14 07:41:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x02f377…
09-12 19:38:09	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x6f42ac…
09-12 19:37:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	67	20¢	$13	0x58db7c…
09-12 19:36:12	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	90¢	$22	0xa6b8ad…
09-12 19:35:21	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x0d62af…
09-12 19:34:43	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x999677…
08-17 05:37:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0xe30cb6…
08-13 13:07:34	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x4e8c0a…
08-13 13:07:25	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0xad5da4…
08-11 14:47:04	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xe6c46f…
07-29 14:54:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0xdd784a…
07-29 06:24:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x3001ff…
07-19 21:51:16	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x999db1…
07-19 21:46:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xe0e42d…
07-19 21:40:33	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x324d4b…
07-15 21:06:02	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xa59fd7…
07-15 21:05:46	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	242	49¢	$118	0xbf23f8…
07-15 20:52:38	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	SELL	105	86¢	$91	0x1338c2…
07-15 20:49:10	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x9dd739…
07-15 20:49:02	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	12	79¢	$9	0xaae639…
07-15 20:46:56	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	96	18¢	$17	0xd2af08…
07-15 20:46:43	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xceb62c…
07-15 20:19:59	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	105	9¢	$10	0xbb8648…
07-14 20:14:26	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	SELL	48	16¢	$8	0x6adb0f…
07-14 19:24:05	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x461e11…
07-14 13:18:43	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	11	78¢	$9	0xbc464b…
07-14 13:15:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	133	93¢	$124	0x72c6d0…
07-10 20:55:22	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	SELL	39	91¢	$36	0xb6ed39…
07-10 20:36:19	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x1cc00d…
07-10 19:43:01	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x04f657…
07-09 21:32:28	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	SELL	129	97¢	$126	0x3a5c26…
07-09 21:27:20	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	117	85¢	$100	0x469e65…
07-09 21:26:32	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x1cd08d…
07-09 05:58:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	19	95¢	$18	0xe15466…
07-09 05:57:55	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x3a626a…
07-09 05:57:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x7f296d…
07-07 17:57:50	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	81	6¢	$5	0x063f83…
07-07 17:50:13	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x704127…
07-07 17:49:14	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xa0aeda…
07-07 17:48:59	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	SELL	51	6¢	$3	0xb1adba…
07-07 17:47:53	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0xf2be97…
07-07 17:44:17	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xe2830c…
07-07 17:43:59	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x2fb7d5…
07-07 17:24:02	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	SELL	40	43¢	$17	0x99500d…
07-07 16:38:59	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x72cb69…
07-07 16:15:49	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xd9ddde…
07-06 20:37:56	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x80dbd9…
07-06 20:30:55	Spain to score first vs. Portugal?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x3a32d7…
07-06 20:19:17	Spain to score first vs. Portugal?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xe7e7aa…
07-06 20:15:17	Spain to score first vs. Portugal?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9e2d12…
07-05 20:39:05	Brazil to score first vs. Norway?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xc0302a…
07-05 20:38:35	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	SELL	19	51¢	$10	0xe39728…
07-05 20:34:58	Brazil to score first vs. Norway?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xb836cb…
07-05 20:14:14	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xebd5e2…
07-04 23:02:10	Will France win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xfedf6f…