Plump-Start — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.04K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.3%

Resolved

Trades

164

lifetime

Volume

$114.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$698

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-01 12:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

53% 100% +$43

Other

38% 80% $-1,088

Tech

8% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	4	$5.2K	4,717	1,508	+3,208	open	—	04-10 15:10
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$4.6K	4,813	1,898	+2,915	open	—	01-22 12:39
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	4	$4.4K	2,382	2,382	+0	open	—	04-01 12:52
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	5	$4.3K	2,335	2,335	+0	open	—	03-30 23:32
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	4	$3.9K	2,081	2,081	+0	open	—	03-30 23:35
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$3.8K	2,347	2,347	+0	open	—	01-21 20:07
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$3.3K	1,772	1,772	+0	open	—	01-06 22:27
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	5	$3.1K	2,347	2,347	+0	open	—	02-28 19:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$3.1K	1,721	1,721	+0	open	—	02-09 00:07
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	6	$3.1K	1,616	1,616	+0	open	—	03-16 19:48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$2.5K	1,510	1,510	+0	open	—	02-28 19:42
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	3	$2.4K	1,388	1,388	+0	open	—	03-26 15:13
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	2	$2.3K	1,294	1,294	+0	open	—	03-07 20:52
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$2.2K	1,439	1,439	+0	open	—	02-18 14:04
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	2	$2.1K	1,111	1,111	+0	open	—	04-11 21:13
israel military action against fordow nuclear facility by april 15	2	$2.1K	1,110	1,110	+0	open	—	04-10 15:09
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	2	$2.1K	1,104	1,104	+0	open	—	02-02 20:35
will the government shutdown last 10 days or more 535 334 422	2	$2.0K	1,105	1,105	+0	open	—	02-15 00:41
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	3	$2.0K	1,072	1,072	+0	open	—	05-27 12:34
will bernard drainville be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	2	$2.0K	1,101	1,101	+0	open	—	04-13 10:56
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	4	$1.8K	1,050	1,050	+0	open	—	02-13 11:57
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$1.7K	1,292	1,292	+0	open	—	01-13 16:06
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	2	$1.6K	842	842	+0	Yes	+$41	05-13 18:45
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$1.6K	885	885	+0	open	—	04-27 12:07
maduro mugshot released by monday	1	$1.5K	1,648	0	+1,648	open	—	01-05 14:04
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$1.4K	845	845	+0	open	—	04-13 10:56
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	2	$1.4K	752	752	+0	open	—	05-18 20:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$1.4K	1,028	1,028	+0	open	—	03-23 00:15
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1.4K	1,424	0	+1,424	open	—	04-16 13:00
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	2	$1.4K	862	862	+0	open	—	03-16 13:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 12:59:07	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	600	92¢	$552	0xfe1f32…
07-01 12:58:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	600	87¢	$522	0x751843…
06-16 13:00:22	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	499	96¢	$481	0xab1ddf…
06-16 13:00:12	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	847	99¢	$835	0x2a4d50…
06-15 17:12:10	israeli parliament dissolved by june 15	No	SELL	350	100¢	$350	0x4e444e…
06-05 17:16:03	will apple announce an ai charged siri during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	BUY	429	93¢	$400	0x57fde9…
06-05 17:14:46	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	BUY	440	91¢	$400	0xd97214…
06-02 19:58:34	Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca	Jakub Mensik	BUY	375	80¢	$300	0x40a0ec…
06-01 19:02:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	600	85¢	$510	0xa15b33…
06-01 19:00:27	Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?	No	SELL	673	99¢	$670	0x7047bc…
06-01 14:41:10	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$37	0x5a061e…
06-01 14:08:44	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xb12c66…
06-01 14:08:42	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	456	91¢	$414	0x42833a…
06-01 14:06:27	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	600	86¢	$516	0xbd3d13…
06-01 14:01:16	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?	No	BUY	350	83¢	$291	0x25b026…
05-28 17:55:38	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Joao Fonseca	BUY	132	35¢	$46	0x6a01ba…
05-27 12:41:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	474	91¢	$430	0x9aa9c1…
05-27 12:34:39	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	SELL	1,072	98¢	$1,054	0x8e6f88…
05-27 12:34:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	556	99¢	$548	0xed5997…
05-27 12:34:21	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	340	86¢	$292	0x13ac4e…
05-27 12:31:45	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	457	90¢	$411	0x7b72f4…
05-27 12:28:52	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	568	99¢	$560	0x510b4b…
05-27 12:28:17	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0xaf0f8e…
05-27 12:26:04	Evo Morales arrested by May 31?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xb17015…
05-27 12:24:05	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	417	93¢	$387	0xaec75e…
05-19 11:31:53	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	BUY	390	89¢	$347	0xb6af25…
05-18 20:06:34	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	752	99¢	$744	0x2d0afb…
05-18 11:43:14	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	BUY	682	88¢	$600	0x522d04…
05-15 18:24:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	642	90¢	$578	0xcc2501…
05-15 18:24:10	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	580	100¢	$578	0x29293a…
05-14 13:35:22	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	752	86¢	$650	0xea9e62…
05-13 23:23:37	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi	Rafael Jodar	SELL	196	62¢	$122	0x1e41a5…
05-13 20:59:22	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi	Rafael Jodar	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x23a84d…
05-13 18:45:47	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	842	100¢	$841	0x33a984…
05-12 14:09:52	Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	539	93¢	$500	0x0151d0…
05-08 18:48:10	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?	No	BUY	655	92¢	$600	0x852e6b…
05-06 12:17:44	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	580	86¢	$500	0x7e4254…
05-04 13:34:40	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	842	95¢	$800	0x2e40bd…
05-04 13:29:30	Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	668	90¢	$600	0x4e5964…
04-30 11:21:02	Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April?	No	BUY	879	98¢	$860	0xfe3875…
04-29 12:30:04	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	568	88¢	$500	0xb0dd03…
04-29 11:58:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	556	90¢	$500	0x6d9995…
04-29 11:57:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	543	92¢	$500	0xed677c…
04-29 11:55:32	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	345	87¢	$300	0x57b733…
04-27 12:17:04	North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	578	87¢	$500	0xd9585e…
04-27 12:07:22	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	885	99¢	$878	0x0cbc90…
04-20 18:34:08	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,384	91¢	$1,258	0x2c9c7f…
04-17 17:22:20	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	885	77¢	$680	0xca7d5b…
04-17 17:14:00	will claude opus 4 6 thinking be the best ai model on april 17 2026	Yes	SELL	615	100¢	$614	0xf8b6e0…
04-17 17:14:00	will claude opus 4 6 thinking be the best ai model on april 17 2026	Yes	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0x051334…
04-16 13:00:32	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,424	96¢	$1,370	0x036dd4…
04-16 13:00:28	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	561	89¢	$500	0xbd63c3…
04-16 12:58:10	Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?	No	BUY	680	88¢	$600	0xb30996…
04-16 12:54:56	Steve Bannon exonerated by April 30?	No	BUY	909	88¢	$800	0x137465…
04-16 12:49:16	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	BUY	542	92¢	$500	0x3e364f…
04-15 12:40:34	will claude opus 4 6 thinking be the best ai model on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	682	93¢	$634	0x2d23a2…
04-15 12:39:52	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	SELL	639	99¢	$634	0x15f907…
04-13 13:04:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	597	90¢	$536	0x50afd6…
04-13 13:03:03	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	874	92¢	$800	0x127d5a…
04-13 12:58:03	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	BUY	716	84¢	$600	0x62ef24…
04-13 12:40:51	houthis successfully target shipping by april 15	No	BUY	561	89¢	$500	0x07c8ec…
04-13 10:56:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	845	99¢	$837	0x0e80bc…
04-13 10:56:01	will bernard drainville be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	No	SELL	1,101	100¢	$1,095	0x6d8cc8…
04-11 21:14:23	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	845	71¢	$600	0x1d658c…
04-11 21:13:13	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	SELL	1,111	99¢	$1,104	0x3d2ac0…
04-10 15:10:07	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	1,205	90¢	$1,085	0xe3c720…
04-10 15:09:49	israel military action against fordow nuclear facility by april 15	No	SELL	1,110	98¢	$1,085	0x1d32fa…
04-09 12:24:19	will bernard drainville be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	No	BUY	1,101	79¢	$870	0x4a1ca2…
04-05 02:01:03	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	2,003	92¢	$1,843	0x2f1b26…
04-02 12:47:57	will the dhs shutdown last 60 days or more 988 872 151 791 415 422	Yes	SELL	602	29¢	$173	0xf703ae…
04-01 12:58:39	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	BUY	639	87¢	$556	0x026708…
04-01 12:56:05	israel military action against fordow nuclear facility by april 15	No	BUY	1,110	90¢	$1,000	0x26c668…
04-01 12:54:55	any of the stolen kitkats recovered by april 5	No	BUY	870	92¢	$800	0x561390…
04-01 12:52:23	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	2,382	99¢	$2,356	0xa6ea35…
04-01 12:51:59	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	1,111	90¢	$996	0x98aee9…
03-31 19:30:25	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	1,508	66¢	$996	0x0e0586…
03-30 23:48:15	will israel strike 4 countries in march 2026	No	BUY	951	89¢	$848	0xcb11e4…
03-30 23:46:23	will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 31 2026 119	Yes	BUY	720	94¢	$674	0xd323b7…
03-30 23:36:57	will the dhs shutdown last 60 days or more 988 872 151 791 415 422	Yes	BUY	602	83¢	$500	0xd9674f…
03-30 23:35:59	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	SELL	2,081	97¢	$2,022	0x95c6d4…
03-30 23:33:23	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	1,508	83¢	$1,252	0xc0427b…
03-30 23:32:51	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	1,273	98¢	$1,252	0x6eb26c…
03-29 20:12:46	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1,185	85¢	$1,011	0x077397…
03-29 09:25:14	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	1,041	97¢	$1,011	0xe329dd…
03-27 23:39:23	atp zverev sinner 2026 03 27	Alexander Zverev	BUY	202	10¢	$20	0x2bae30…
03-27 23:38:41	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x66b082…
03-27 21:50:05	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	BUY	758	91¢	$689	0x6704a9…
03-27 21:49:47	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	713	97¢	$689	0x84d4d5…
03-27 21:48:51	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	BUY	706	91¢	$642	0xc85e9b…
03-27 21:48:31	miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	No	SELL	655	98¢	$642	0x97b972…
03-26 15:14:05	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	1,541	89¢	$1,371	0x0a8b01…
03-26 15:13:49	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	1,388	99¢	$1,371	0x63bfca…
03-24 13:42:43	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	794	85¢	$675	0xfe7db2…
03-24 13:41:15	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	844	80¢	$675	0x9a8865…
03-23 00:16:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	713	89¢	$634	0xe9bd50…
03-23 00:15:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,028	62¢	$635	0x038c9c…
03-22 21:01:23	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	844	80¢	$675	0x64d99b…
03-22 21:01:01	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	SELL	676	100¢	$675	0xb45998…
03-19 16:09:01	miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	No	BUY	655	92¢	$606	0x3886ca…
03-19 14:46:51	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	No	SELL	641	95¢	$606	0x6c7db6…