Realized P&L (30d)
-$105
Unrealized P&L
+$26
Hit rate
74.2%
Resolved (30d)
196
Trades (30d)
521
14,633 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$10.1K
$237.8K lifetime
Avg / trade
$16
Open exposure
$1.05K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-17
last 11-02 08:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 168 days
Categories
Other
51% 77% -$240
Politics
29% 65% -$926
Crypto
17% 78% -$745
Sports
2% 69% +$101
Tech
1% 71% +$85
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +113 $47 74¢ $84 +$37 10-06 13:24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +77 $60 99¢ $77 +$17 10-30 11:28
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No +72 $60 94¢ $68 +$8 07-25 12:21
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No +67 $60 97¢ $65 +$5 10-25 21:27
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +107 $60 57¢ $62 +$2 10-28 18:04
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +85 $60 72¢ $60 +$0 10-31 07:02
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +83 $60 72¢ $60 +$0 11-02 04:16
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +63 $60 94¢ $60 $0 11-01 07:22
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +63 $60 94¢ $60 $0 10-31 16:17
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? Yes +107 $60 56¢ $59 -$1 11-01 20:46
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? No +107 $60 55¢ $58 -$2 11-01 20:46
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +69 $52 84¢ $58 +$6 11-02 08:16
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +180 $58 32¢ $57 -$1 11-02 06:16
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +41 $23 94¢ $39 +$16 05-19 01:57
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +43 $32 74¢ $32 +$0 11-02 06:44
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +32 $30 94¢ $30 $0 11-02 09:27
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes +20 $15 96¢ $19 +$4 05-19 04:24
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +34 $12 56¢ $19 +$7 10-26 00:08
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +40 $21 44¢ $17 -$3 10-29 15:54
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No +16 $16 96¢ $16 +$0 10-30 14:55
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +92 $60 16¢ $15 -$45 10-28 02:48
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? Yes +160 $14 9¢ $14 +$0 11-02 07:37
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? Yes +20 $16 68¢ $13 -$3 05-19 04:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1? Yes +4 $0 100¢ $4 +$4 11-02 07:47
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? No +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 06-08 10:45
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? No +88 $17 0¢ $0 -$17 11-01 01:31
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +0 $0 85¢ $0 $0 05-19 04:17
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +20 $6 0¢ $0 -$6 05-19 02:34
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? No +0 $0 63¢ $0 +$0 07-05 14:36
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $3 6¢ $0 -$3 10-25 18:02