Realized P&L
-$1.84K
Unrealized P&L
+$145
Hit rate
72.1%
Resolved
4,254
Trades
14,690
lifetime
Volume
$239.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$16
Open exposure
$672
21 positions
First seen
2026-05-17
last 11-05 20:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 172 days
Categories
Other
50% 77% -$355
Politics
30% 65% -$928
Crypto
17% 78% -$745
Sports
2% 69% +$101
Tech
1% 71% +$85
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +180 $58 97¢ $175 +$117 11-02 06:16
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +113 $47 71¢ $80 +$34 10-06 13:24
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No +72 $60 96¢ $70 +$10 07-25 12:21
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +69 $52 98¢ $68 +$16 11-02 08:16
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No +67 $60 96¢ $65 +$5 10-25 21:27
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026? Yes +60 $23 100¢ $60 +$37 11-05 20:00
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes +50 $7 98¢ $49 +$42 11-02 16:34
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +41 $23 95¢ $39 +$16 05-19 01:57
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31? No +30 $22 88¢ $27 +$5 10-31 18:21
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes +20 $15 96¢ $19 +$4 05-19 04:24
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? Yes +15 $12 99¢ $15 +$3 11-01 00:14
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes +26 $7 7¢ $2 -$6 06-01 08:04
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +92 $60 2¢ $2 -$58 10-28 02:48
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? No +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 06-08 10:45
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +60 $13 1¢ $1 -$12 11-04 01:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? Yes +0 $5 100¢ $0 -$5 11-03 01:20
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +0 $0 88¢ $0 $0 05-19 04:17
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? No +82 $55 0¢ $0 -$55 11-03 01:21
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? No +0 $0 70¢ $0 +$0 07-05 14:36
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $5 10¢ $0 -$5 11-04 16:15
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $3 5¢ $0 -$3 10-25 18:02