Unruly-Raisin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$86

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

56.1%

Resolved

1,567

Trades

1,759

lifetime

Volume

$19.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-13 18:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Crypto

38% 99% +$8

Politics

30% 0% -$81

Other

21% 92% -$1

Sports

8% 38% +$2

Tech

4% 12% -$14

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-13).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+0	$0	14¢	$0	$0	06-26 05:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	8	$1.4K	800	800	+0	open	—	07-01 07:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	10	$1.1K	800	800	+0	open	—	07-07 01:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	12	$1.0K	832	832	+0	Yes	+$0	06-12 08:27
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	9	$598	500	500	+0	Yes	$0	07-03 19:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	9	$592	613	613	+0	Yes	-$19	06-13 15:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$481	401	401	+0	No	+$8	06-25 11:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$424	400	400	+0	Yes	+$0	07-06 16:52
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$380	400	400	+0	open	—	06-12 14:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-30 22:37
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	2	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	06-26 12:03
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	4	$328	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-08 20:55
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	4	$304	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-01 18:49
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$288	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-06 23:29
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	10	$271	191	191	+0	No	+$0	06-16 14:32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	6	$261	219	219	+0	Yes	-$4	07-10 18:42
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$260	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	07-04 08:03
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$240	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-08 07:21
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?	3	$224	175	175	+0	Yes	+$0	06-30 20:24
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$216	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-01 18:06
Fed rate hike in 2026?	14	$212	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 15:31
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	2	$206	200	200	+0	No	-$54	07-13 18:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	3	$196	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-08 11:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	15	$196	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-02 05:58
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$179	140	140	+0	Yes	+$0	06-08 19:03
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	2	$152	206	206	+0	open	—	07-13 13:24
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	2	$148	200	200	+0	open	—	07-08 02:04
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	4	$129	130	130	+0	open	—	05-30 04:53
will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	3	$118	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	07-07 16:21
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$108	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	07-02 13:28
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	4	$106	86	86	+0	Yes	+$0	06-10 11:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 18:10:26	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x5ed2ca…
07-13 13:24:34	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	206	28¢	$58	0x564be7…
07-13 12:39:55	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	62	73¢	$45	0x33fc12…
07-13 11:58:28	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x4e9407…
07-11 23:02:52	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	BUY	64	73¢	$47	0xc5b1ca…
07-11 22:30:47	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	13¢	$26	0x583b38…
07-11 22:16:50	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0xe982db…
07-10 18:42:40	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	73	8¢	$6	0xcbb01c…
07-10 13:32:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	73	14¢	$10	0x143bb7…
07-10 12:27:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	80	83¢	$66	0x31179e…
07-10 07:43:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	80	83¢	$66	0x06b282…
07-08 11:52:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	40	49¢	$20	0xfa20ba…
07-08 11:52:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	160	49¢	$78	0x527137…
07-08 11:52:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0xce0943…
07-08 02:04:19	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0x8ad0f7…
07-07 19:58:53	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd34ded…
07-07 16:21:44	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	SELL	65	59¢	$39	0x913400…
07-07 16:21:43	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	SELL	35	59¢	$20	0xff671d…
07-07 16:15:53	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x98789a…
07-07 11:29:26	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x4517c2…
07-07 03:56:32	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	69	40¢	$28	0xe9a894…
07-07 03:55:56	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	13	40¢	$5	0x231c35…
07-07 03:55:25	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	82	40¢	$33	0x7523aa…
07-07 01:40:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xf9d0fb…
07-06 23:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xa9f42a…
07-06 16:52:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	87	85¢	$74	0x4c4018…
07-06 16:51:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	113	85¢	$96	0x4ec4bd…
07-06 16:51:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xff7125…
07-06 11:08:19	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	56¢	$28	0x5f3d30…
07-06 11:07:07	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xed510e…
07-06 10:42:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0x41e8e4…
07-06 10:42:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x0cf5c7…
07-06 10:34:04	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xffa5d2…
07-06 10:33:28	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc5be22…
07-05 02:18:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x8fb7d2…
07-05 02:17:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x0da0dc…
07-04 13:37:58	Will T1 win MSI 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0xec54d0…
07-04 13:37:40	Will T1 win MSI 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xef71d4…
07-04 13:30:22	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	206	46¢	$95	0xa96683…
07-04 13:22:04	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	133	18¢	$24	0xb95e6e…
07-04 08:37:31	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0xaf8b6f…
07-04 08:26:38	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x657a96…
07-04 08:23:43	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	23	19¢	$4	0x4adf9e…
07-04 08:23:31	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x0b70af…
07-04 08:23:14	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xe4a522…
07-04 08:22:59	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x5641d1…
07-04 08:22:43	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xb33804…
07-04 08:22:28	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xda0149…
07-04 08:22:11	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x3f8e46…
07-04 08:21:59	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x7140af…
07-04 08:21:55	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	25	19¢	$5	0xe606ec…
07-04 08:21:08	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	BUY	133	19¢	$25	0xd67fb5…
07-04 08:03:26	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	65¢	$130	0x6ea6d9…
07-04 04:28:56	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x726b4e…
07-03 19:55:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x2f5d45…
07-03 19:41:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xbc9f93…
07-03 13:24:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	71¢	$142	0x4de2db…
07-03 12:32:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x44b55f…
07-02 16:40:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	66	85¢	$56	0xf830ee…
07-02 15:56:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	66	85¢	$56	0xa0b930…
07-02 13:28:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x1e9335…
07-02 13:27:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	180	27¢	$49	0x9e5283…
07-02 13:27:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x9a703d…
07-02 13:27:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xceb71e…
07-02 01:38:17	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	63	74¢	$47	0x689b67…
07-02 01:02:01	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	63	74¢	$47	0xca9421…
07-02 00:14:17	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	SELL	3	85¢	$2	0x01b608…
07-02 00:13:47	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	SELL	48	86¢	$42	0x481bec…
07-01 21:44:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	16	29¢	$5	0x1e9f6a…
07-01 21:13:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x24a67e…
07-01 21:04:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xafca46…
07-01 20:30:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	54	29¢	$16	0xb8fc5d…
07-01 19:55:20	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	BUY	51	86¢	$44	0xbabd59…
07-01 18:06:34	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	19	54¢	$11	0xee1065…
07-01 18:06:34	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	181	54¢	$97	0x4dc7a7…
07-01 18:06:14	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x839028…
07-01 17:28:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x78cca4…
07-01 07:15:20	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x70d0a9…
07-01 07:14:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x9a6525…
06-30 20:24:46	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	64¢	$20	0x63c740…
06-30 20:24:40	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	64¢	$92	0x56b8ef…
06-30 20:23:56	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	64¢	$112	0x5438d4…
06-30 07:30:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x6d7c4e…
06-30 07:27:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x3b05db…
06-29 18:42:31	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x95be3d…
06-29 13:42:10	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0x46b645…
06-29 12:36:13	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x9c242e…
06-29 12:35:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xe0fa03…
06-26 12:03:10	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x03d840…
06-26 11:58:59	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x334dde…
06-26 06:11:49	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x9b1a5f…
06-26 06:08:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x8f3b12…
06-26 05:50:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	41¢	$14	0xcbe8f1…
06-26 04:19:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x9bcd76…
06-26 04:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0x80cde5…
06-26 04:17:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	41¢	$21	0x30a2cc…
06-25 23:30:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	200	21¢	$42	0x0506da…
06-25 19:44:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0xed04db…
06-25 11:51:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	201	59¢	$119	0x424dfb…
06-25 11:44:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	201	55¢	$111	0x3a0ff2…