Unruly-Raisin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

151

Trades

1,634

lifetime

Volume

$13.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-30 07:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 100% +$7

Politics

30% — —

Other

15% 100% +$1

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 158 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+0	$0	42¢	$0	+$0	06-26 05:50
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes		+0	$0	52¢	$0	$-0	06-18 15:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	6	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	06-30 07:30
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	12	$1.0K	832	832	+0	open	—	06-12 08:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	9	$592	613	613	+0	open	—	06-13 15:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$481	401	401	+0	open	—	06-25 11:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$380	400	400	+0	open	—	06-12 14:52
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	2	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	06-26 12:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:37
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	4	$328	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 20:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$308	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 18:42
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	4	$304	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 18:49
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	10	$271	191	191	+0	open	—	06-16 14:32
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 07:21
Fed rate hike in 2026?	14	$212	200	200	+0	open	—	06-18 15:31
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$179	140	140	+0	open	—	06-08 19:03
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	4	$129	130	130	+0	open	—	05-30 04:53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	4	$106	86	86	+0	open	—	06-10 11:11
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	2	$73	61	61	+0	open	—	06-09 18:05
will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	2	$69	100	100	+0	open	—	06-15 19:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	1	$66	0	135	-135	open	—	06-02 05:58
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	6	$65	66	66	+0	open	—	06-18 06:57
will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	2	$64	85	85	+0	open	—	06-16 01:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$56	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 13:53
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	3	$51	100	100	+0	open	—	06-23 17:26
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	2	$50	200	200	+0	open	—	06-10 10:17
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	2	$43	53	53	+0	open	—	06-05 18:53
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	2	$43	52	52	+0	open	—	06-11 08:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$42	51	51	+0	open	—	06-26 05:50
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	2	$24	200	200	+0	open	—	06-05 15:06
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	2	$14	40	40	+0	open	—	06-29 18:42
eth updown 5m 1776837000	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	04-22 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 07:30:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x6d7c4e…
06-30 07:27:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x3b05db…
06-29 18:42:31	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x95be3d…
06-29 13:42:10	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0x46b645…
06-29 12:36:13	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x9c242e…
06-29 12:35:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xe0fa03…
06-26 12:03:10	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x03d840…
06-26 11:58:59	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x334dde…
06-26 06:11:49	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x9b1a5f…
06-26 06:08:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x8f3b12…
06-26 05:50:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	41¢	$14	0xcbe8f1…
06-26 04:19:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x9bcd76…
06-26 04:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0x80cde5…
06-26 04:17:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	41¢	$21	0x30a2cc…
06-25 11:51:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	201	59¢	$119	0x424dfb…
06-25 11:44:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	201	55¢	$111	0x3a0ff2…
06-23 17:26:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	35	19¢	$7	0xbefa89…
06-23 12:25:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	65	27¢	$18	0x748ec4…
06-23 12:25:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x94c2a2…
06-18 15:31:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0xba2493…
06-18 15:24:50	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x8eff4a…
06-18 15:10:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xb0a000…
06-18 14:58:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xbbddf1…
06-18 14:53:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0xfc32d2…
06-18 14:43:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x3dc920…
06-18 14:34:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x866160…
06-18 14:32:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	53¢	$10	0x43787f…
06-18 14:23:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0x824f23…
06-18 14:01:02	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x05db77…
06-18 13:51:38	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0xe43b2e…
06-18 13:50:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0x4b8d8d…
06-18 13:49:35	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x2f4a37…
06-18 13:41:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x5cf039…
06-18 06:57:59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	33	50¢	$16	0xa15753…
06-18 06:57:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	27	49¢	$13	0x81277a…
06-18 06:57:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x429136…
06-18 06:57:50	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	33	49¢	$16	0x605311…
06-16 14:32:43	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	64	69¢	$44	0xda16b8…
06-16 14:32:41	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0xef513b…
06-16 14:32:20	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0xe39888…
06-16 14:31:49	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0xe1667e…
06-16 14:31:49	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0x904972…
06-16 14:24:14	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0xc8ab6a…
06-16 14:24:04	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0xc981c7…
06-16 01:02:30	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	85	22¢	$19	0xf799b7…
06-15 19:48:45	will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x52ef7d…
06-15 05:28:10	will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x79238f…
06-14 21:40:51	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	98	69¢	$68	0x0df021…
06-13 15:15:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0x41c3b3…
06-12 16:12:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x729d63…
06-12 14:52:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x353ae2…
06-12 14:50:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0xe4a6ee…
06-12 08:27:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	69	55¢	$38	0xd3e728…
06-12 08:26:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	63	55¢	$35	0x06a031…
06-12 08:26:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	69	55¢	$38	0xa8111c…
06-12 08:25:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x327b78…
06-12 06:46:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	43¢	$86	0x048d04…
06-12 06:18:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	43¢	$86	0xa35e9f…
06-11 17:05:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x0b91d5…
06-11 17:05:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0xf3db15…
06-11 08:21:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	52	41¢	$21	0xa9bd4e…
06-11 08:10:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	52	41¢	$21	0x19f1b5…
06-11 05:11:18	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	85	53¢	$45	0xe96c19…
06-10 11:11:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	62¢	$27	0x200272…
06-10 11:04:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	61¢	$26	0xc064d4…
06-10 10:17:49	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x493269…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	61¢	$26	0x51eb7a…
06-10 05:17:40	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x42a2d4…
06-09 18:05:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	61	60¢	$37	0x516827…
06-08 20:55:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	76	82¢	$62	0x51b58f…
06-08 20:52:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	122	82¢	$100	0x020165…
06-08 20:52:13	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xa07b53…
06-08 20:52:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x55fc6a…
06-08 19:03:37	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	140	64¢	$90	0x0ccf19…
06-08 07:21:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0x761532…
06-08 07:16:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x755f88…
06-08 05:34:31	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	140	64¢	$89	0x323af6…
06-08 03:47:18	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	93	73¢	$68	0x20766f…
06-07 22:15:12	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	93	73¢	$68	0xe59858…
06-06 22:05:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	24	28¢	$7	0x35c8e5…
06-06 18:35:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	176	26¢	$46	0xdc9e02…
06-06 09:34:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0xf7fc2b…
06-05 18:53:21	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	53	41¢	$22	0x052fb7…
06-05 15:06:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x27bf76…
06-05 15:05:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x0f2902…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	144	60¢	$86	0x375a81…
06-05 12:54:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	7	60¢	$4	0xe771af…
06-05 12:54:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	62	60¢	$37	0xae6fa6…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	213	60¢	$128	0xa08e89…
06-05 07:36:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	53	41¢	$22	0x3b383a…
06-03 20:41:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xbef1a4…
06-03 19:48:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xed8710…
06-03 15:56:03	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	60¢	$37	0xd9512a…
06-03 15:13:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xbfbb16…
06-03 05:32:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xdf0907…
06-02 13:53:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x57738e…
06-02 08:52:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x868943…
06-02 05:58:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	135	49¢	$66	0xbad02d…
06-01 18:49:38	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	171	76¢	$130	0xcf6b8f…
06-01 18:42:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	77¢	$11	0x920a80…