Unruly-Raisin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

151

Trades

1,563

lifetime

Volume

$10.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$26

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-09 18:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 100% +$7

Politics

14% — —

Other

13% 100% +$1

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 158 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No		+43	$26	60¢	$26	$-1	06-10 05:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	7	$380	413	413	+0	open	—	06-06 22:05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:37
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	4	$328	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 20:55
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$316	232	232	+0	open	—	06-03 15:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$308	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 18:42
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	4	$304	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 18:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$252	200	200	+0	open	—	06-03 20:41
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 07:21
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$179	140	140	+0	open	—	06-08 19:03
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	2	$136	93	93	+0	open	—	06-08 03:47
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	4	$129	130	130	+0	open	—	05-30 04:53
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	2	$73	61	61	+0	open	—	06-09 18:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	1	$66	0	135	-135	open	—	06-02 05:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$60	200	200	+0	open	—	05-31 15:17
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$56	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 13:53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	2	$53	86	0	+86	open	—	06-10 05:42
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	2	$43	53	53	+0	open	—	06-05 18:53
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	1	$26	200	0	+200	open	—	06-10 05:17
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	2	$24	200	200	+0	open	—	06-05 15:06
eth updown 5m 1776837000	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	04-22 05:54
eth updown 5m 1776436800	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-17 14:44
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-26 05:09
sol updown 5m 1776506400	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-18 10:02
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 4AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-25 08:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	05-07 15:57
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-18 01:19
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-14 19:24
btc updown 15m 1776434400	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-17 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-26 03:29
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-26 21:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	61¢	$26	0x51eb7a…
06-10 05:17:40	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x42a2d4…
06-09 18:05:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	61	60¢	$37	0x516827…
06-08 20:55:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	76	82¢	$62	0x51b58f…
06-08 20:52:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	122	82¢	$100	0x020165…
06-08 20:52:13	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xa07b53…
06-08 20:52:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x55fc6a…
06-08 19:03:37	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	140	64¢	$90	0x0ccf19…
06-08 07:21:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0x761532…
06-08 07:16:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x755f88…
06-08 05:34:31	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	140	64¢	$89	0x323af6…
06-08 03:47:18	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	93	73¢	$68	0x20766f…
06-07 22:15:12	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	93	73¢	$68	0xe59858…
06-06 22:05:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	24	28¢	$7	0x35c8e5…
06-06 18:35:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	176	26¢	$46	0xdc9e02…
06-06 09:34:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0xf7fc2b…
06-05 18:53:21	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	53	41¢	$22	0x052fb7…
06-05 15:06:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x27bf76…
06-05 15:05:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x0f2902…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	144	60¢	$86	0x375a81…
06-05 12:54:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	7	60¢	$4	0xe771af…
06-05 12:54:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	62	60¢	$37	0xae6fa6…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	213	60¢	$128	0xa08e89…
06-05 07:36:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	53	41¢	$22	0x3b383a…
06-03 20:41:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xbef1a4…
06-03 19:48:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xed8710…
06-03 15:56:03	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	60¢	$37	0xd9512a…
06-03 15:13:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xbfbb16…
06-03 05:32:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xdf0907…
06-02 13:53:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x57738e…
06-02 08:52:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x868943…
06-02 05:58:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	135	49¢	$66	0xbad02d…
06-01 18:49:38	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	171	76¢	$130	0xcf6b8f…
06-01 18:42:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	77¢	$11	0x920a80…
06-01 17:58:53	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	26	76¢	$20	0xf20aea…
06-01 17:52:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	70	77¢	$54	0x17b1b7…
06-01 17:45:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	115	77¢	$89	0x2a59dc…
06-01 17:26:25	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0xff6d98…
06-01 15:57:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x19f126…
06-01 15:56:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x1e5756…
05-31 23:26:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	32	62¢	$20	0xbae73e…
05-31 22:14:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0xa6fe54…
05-31 15:17:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x66bf01…
05-31 15:03:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x91212f…
05-30 22:37:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xf3e841…
05-30 21:41:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x2145e0…
05-30 04:53:18	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	60	51¢	$31	0x682f57…
05-30 04:53:06	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x2102ea…
05-30 04:45:01	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	60	49¢	$29	0xf09bfc…
05-30 04:44:56	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	130	49¢	$64	0x05b826…
05-29 15:43:06	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcd5e99…
05-29 15:33:00	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x993a0d…
05-29 15:32:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x85de2c…
05-29 15:28:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe94ef5…
05-29 14:52:33	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe2eff1…
05-29 14:48:23	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x90e978…
05-29 14:38:05	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7c5305…
05-29 14:29:20	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5b755b…
05-29 13:37:58	XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfc6d77…
05-28 19:57:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe106d8…
05-28 15:09:27	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x47cfcb…
05-28 14:44:13	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0c1139…
05-28 14:44:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe99318…
05-28 14:28:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe193b4…
05-28 14:23:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcbb5ce…
05-28 14:22:43	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x92fec9…
05-28 14:18:37	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5e2df0…
05-28 14:14:00	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x871917…
05-28 05:13:43	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5f092a…
05-28 03:24:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xffac3d…
05-28 01:28:03	xrp updown 5m 1779931500	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5c7dce…
05-28 01:24:11	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x11c01d…
05-27 21:53:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd8d9b5…
05-27 21:48:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x36153d…
05-27 20:58:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5fae0b…
05-27 14:08:49	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7d2c94…
05-27 13:52:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfff063…
05-27 13:48:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdb1ffb…
05-27 13:43:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x67a691…
05-27 12:18:45	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8dbdbe…
05-26 17:33:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x73b778…
05-26 15:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8d1369…
05-26 15:33:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x526e48…
05-26 01:33:30	XRP Up or Down - May 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x312ccd…
05-25 22:04:12	XRP Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe7f3f8…
05-24 23:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb867ba…
05-24 22:02:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa1d6f7…
05-24 22:02:48	XRP Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfb6b94…
05-24 21:38:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x600f80…
05-24 13:19:32	XRP Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0aedb0…
05-24 12:59:38	BNB Up or Down - May 24, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x76524b…
05-24 02:24:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x36ab9b…
05-24 00:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd85e2f…
05-23 21:49:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x039ebd…
05-23 21:02:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x51ce42…
05-23 07:52:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9a4dfe…
05-23 07:47:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8feba5…
05-22 23:57:36	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb28c4b…
05-22 19:43:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x670e4d…
05-22 18:48:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3155ce…