Icy-Mansard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,199

lifetime

Volume

$11.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-04 08:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

87% 75% $-3

Politics

12% — —

Sports

1% 33% $-1

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will lus marques mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	9	$302	181	181	+0	open	—	01-18 19:32
will henrique gouveia e melo win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	7	$229	124	124	+0	open	—	01-18 21:34
will joo cotrim de figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$210	6	271	-265	open	—	01-18 19:53
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 500 519	3	$202	104	104	+0	open	—	01-22 18:42
highest temperature in seoul on january 22 neg 3c	13	$183	93	93	+0	open	—	01-22 08:35
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 30 33c	5	$182	94	94	+0	open	—	01-31 00:57
highest temperature in buenos aires on february 9 2026 36corhigher	2	$181	91	91	+0	open	—	02-09 22:59
highest temperature in london on january 20 12corhigher	2	$176	89	89	+0	open	—	01-20 21:29
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 580 599	3	$174	89	89	+0	open	—	01-20 12:02
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	5	$163	979	2,003	-1,024	open	—	01-25 11:00
will joo cotrim figueiredo win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$158	81	81	+0	open	—	01-18 21:14
highest temperature in london on january 20 10c	4	$149	62	157	-96	open	—	01-21 01:15
highest temperature in seoul on january 31 2corhigher	3	$137	69	69	+0	open	—	01-31 11:20
highest temperature in london on january 28 11c	2	$126	64	64	+0	open	—	01-28 16:33
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$125	72	72	+0	open	—	01-18 22:45
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 27 36c	2	$120	61	61	+0	open	—	01-27 13:22
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 31 28corbelow	2	$119	60	60	+0	open	—	01-31 15:04
highest temperature in seoul on january 28 0corhigher	2	$119	62	62	+0	open	—	01-28 09:39
highest temperature in london on january 29 5c	6	$116	59	59	+0	open	—	01-29 10:50
highest temperature in toronto on january 28 neg 8c	5	$116	61	61	+0	open	—	01-29 00:33
highest temperature in buenos aires on february 1 34corbelow	4	$113	60	60	+0	open	—	02-01 21:47
highest temperature in nyc on january 27 24 25f	2	$111	57	57	+0	open	—	01-27 12:41
highest temperature in nyc on january 20 26 27f	2	$105	54	54	+0	open	—	01-21 09:14
highest temperature in seoul on january 21 neg 4c	2	$104	53	53	+0	open	—	01-21 08:48
highest temperature in seattle on january 29 56forhigher	2	$104	52	52	+0	open	—	01-29 18:15
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 19 24c	2	$103	54	54	+0	open	—	01-19 18:21
highest temperature in toronto on january 19 neg 4c	5	$103	53	53	+0	open	—	01-20 02:03
highest temperature in miami on january 28 62 63f	2	$102	52	52	+0	open	—	01-28 17:06
highest temperature in seoul on january 20 neg 7c	3	$102	52	52	+0	open	—	01-20 05:30
highest temperature in london on january 19 12corhigher	3	$101	51	51	+0	open	—	01-19 21:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 08:25:56	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x2e4e48…
06-30 16:33:58	will rayan cherki score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x4ad99b…
06-30 16:32:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x4d839f…
06-30 16:31:07	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xaadfc8…
06-30 16:30:46	will croatia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134512	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8bbca3…
06-30 16:29:52	will colombia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134508	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xadee2b…
06-30 16:29:47	will morocco reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134476	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xdcc545…
06-30 08:45:40	will bosnia and herzegovina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120742	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x40b071…
06-30 08:45:28	will dr congo reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120778	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa43c76…
06-30 08:45:22	will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x47769b…
06-25 21:50:07	will colombia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134508	Yes	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0xd3c756…
06-25 21:49:10	will germany reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134483	Yes	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x062b66…
06-25 21:45:23	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0xb67032…
06-25 08:27:01	will colombia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134508	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8eb55e…
06-25 08:26:55	will mexico reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134467	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xed8857…
06-25 08:26:20	will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x977f09…
06-25 08:26:08	will germany reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134483	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x7fbed3…
06-25 08:25:32	will england reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134511	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xf5a7dd…
06-25 08:24:58	will argentina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134503	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x246076…
06-25 08:24:50	will usa reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134479	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xca8519…
06-24 07:51:34	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x519339…
06-24 03:11:01	will france reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134499	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8d16b2…
06-23 11:22:43	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x31fb21…
06-23 11:21:20	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x0c3d63…
06-23 11:19:31	Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x80ae94…
06-23 11:19:17	Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1d3a2d…
06-22 22:32:46	will spain reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134495	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xad1f96…
06-20 23:24:20	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xb00acf…
06-20 23:17:56	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x0963c9…
06-19 22:34:40	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x4447e1…
06-19 22:32:13	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x17054e…
06-19 22:23:01	will endrick score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x0d88b4…
06-19 22:22:32	will rayan cherki score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xd21ded…
06-19 22:21:50	will mikel merino score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x1b832f…
06-19 21:56:05	Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x8703d7…
06-19 21:45:20	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xadb962…
06-19 21:44:29	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x6c60f9…
06-19 21:43:53	Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x5fb105…
06-19 21:43:47	Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x675987…
06-19 21:42:59	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xa5d062…
06-19 21:42:44	Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xafa579…
06-19 21:41:41	Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x22b597…
06-19 21:41:31	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x9deee2…
06-19 21:40:46	Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x247d2f…
06-19 21:40:20	Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc58de9…
06-12 08:30:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1e94b8…
06-05 09:08:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xea9d33…
06-05 09:03:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x14a580…
05-31 07:46:13	Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek	Iga Swiatek	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x3744ca…
05-27 06:54:07	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xdbb75b…
05-12 11:46:57	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x7ba00b…
05-12 11:27:21	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x9c995c…
05-12 11:26:41	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x598079…
05-11 22:03:10	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0022d4…
05-11 07:27:09	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin	Jannik Sinner	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x43c1ae…
05-08 11:50:43	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xebce85…
05-08 11:50:29	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Zachary Svajda	Casper Ruud	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x546da4…
05-02 08:12:20	Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev	Jannik Sinner	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x702b8a…
04-28 20:25:18	Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x6db9ae…
04-27 23:06:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x25fcf6…
04-27 23:06:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 28?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4d6dca…
04-27 07:31:40	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 27?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x4ff740…
04-27 07:31:28	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 27?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2802d8…
04-27 00:52:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 27?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xdc0e1b…
04-25 14:21:12	Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-25?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x6f00ee…
04-25 08:11:56	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0x7124d8…
04-25 08:11:42	Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-04-25?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xaf0c70…
04-25 08:08:44	Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa828fa…
04-25 08:08:22	Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-04-27?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x87d23e…
04-25 08:07:56	Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-04-26?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa6792e…
04-25 08:07:40	Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-04-25?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xbc8f7b…
04-25 08:05:26	Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-26?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x551ee0…
04-25 08:04:46	Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-25?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xa02bec…
04-25 08:03:52	Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x6df681…
04-25 08:03:36	Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x766aca…
04-25 07:58:42	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 25?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x348042…
04-25 07:58:28	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 25?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xf2a070…
04-25 07:51:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x93001e…
04-25 07:42:48	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 25?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xec1c49…
04-24 23:46:52	Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11?	Yes	SELL	1	42¢	$1	0x7bda2b…
04-24 23:45:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 25?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xffb854…
04-22 07:15:56	highest temperature in nyc on april 22 2026 58 59f	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x11bc52…
04-21 08:22:22	highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 62 63f	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6863bf…
04-21 08:20:00	highest temperature in mexico city on april 21 2026 24c	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x553bca…
04-20 21:39:18	highest temperature in nyc on april 20 2026 50 51f	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xe3632b…
04-20 21:35:02	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x7bec5e…
04-20 21:15:10	highest temperature in mexico city on april 20 2026 26corhigher	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xa4a428…
04-20 17:29:28	highest temperature in miami on april 20 2026 86 87f	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xf5dc19…
04-18 07:46:14	cdr atm rso 2026 04 18 rso	No	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0xe0fc5c…
04-18 07:45:54	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x259e3e…
04-18 07:44:02	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x158ec8…
04-18 07:42:40	highest temperature in sao paulo on april 18 2026 31c	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x8ef97a…
04-18 07:41:26	highest temperature in buenos aires on april 18 2026 25c	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x1b7b08…
04-18 07:36:02	highest temperature in chicago on april 18 2026 62 63f	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x3be0cc…
04-18 07:34:08	highest temperature in nyc on april 18 2026 70 71f	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xbe8b4c…
04-17 08:03:18	bra fla bah 2026 04 19 bah	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x6c5991…
04-17 08:02:32	por por ton 2026 04 19 por	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x3ee134…
04-17 08:01:38	fl1 asm aja 2026 04 19 aja	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xde183d…
04-17 08:01:02	bun bay stu 2026 04 19 stu	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xd8215b…
04-17 08:00:00	sea juv bol 2026 04 19 bol	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x48f7a5…