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Realized P&L (24h)
-$1
Unrealized P&L
-$4
Hit rate
71.3%
Resolved (24h)
2
Trades (24h)
21
56 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$45
$316 lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$107
27 positions
First seen
2026-10-25
last 11-12 21:19
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
73% 57% -$17
Other
18% 67% +$4
Sports
8% — —
Tech
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +27 $12 52¢ $14 +$2 11-07 12:33
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +11 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 11-04 16:45
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +68 $10 10¢ $7 -$3 11-04 21:58
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027? No +17 $6 38¢ $7 +$1 11-08 11:02
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +104 $5 5¢ $6 +$1 11-04 21:58
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes +38 $5 15¢ $6 +$1 11-05 18:26
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +68 $5 8¢ $5 +$0 11-07 12:33
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes +28 $5 18¢ $5 +$0 10-28 17:52
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes +22 $5 24¢ $5 +$0 10-28 17:53
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +6 $5 90¢ $5 +$0 11-12 19:20
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +7 $5 74¢ $5 +$0 11-12 19:06
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +5 $5 92¢ $5 $0 11-12 19:28
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +6 $5 88¢ $5 $0 11-12 19:20
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027? Yes +19 $5 26¢ $5 $0 11-07 12:31
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP? Yes +62 $5 6¢ $4 -$1 11-05 18:48
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? No +8 $2 26¢ $2 +$0 11-12 20:30
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +45 $5 4¢ $2 -$3 11-07 12:33
Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? Yes +3 $2 72¢ $2 $0 11-12 19:24
Jensen Huang divorce by March 31, 2027? No +2 $1 64¢ $1 +$0 11-12 20:22
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +2 $1 50¢ $1 +$0 11-12 20:24
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No +1 $1 78¢ $1 +$0 11-05 18:34
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes +8 $1 12¢ $1 +$0 11-12 20:18
Will Luka Doncic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP? No +2 $1 65¢ $1 $0 11-05 18:49
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +8 $1 10¢ $1 $0 11-12 20:43
Will Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” sell for less than $40m at auction? Yes +9 $1 8¢ $1 $0 11-12 20:47
Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA? Yes +6 $1 8¢ $1 $0 11-12 20:44
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +111 $1 0¢ $0 -$1 11-07 14:00