Usable-Danger — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$286

Unrealized P&L

-$97

Hit rate

71.7%

Resolved

283

Trades

978

lifetime

Volume

$7.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$19

1 position

First seen

2026-01-14

last 09-15 10:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Crypto

55% 63% -$111

Other

32% 42% -$159

Politics

12% 28% -$104

Sports

2% 50% +$88

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+642	$116	3¢	$19	-$97	09-15 10:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17?	5	$495	362	362	+0	Yes	+$69	05-14 15:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15?	5	$253	190	190	+0	No	+$16	05-15 07:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	6	$220	267	267	+0	No	+$48	05-06 13:07
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	3	$216	116	116	+0	Yes	+$2	05-11 08:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?	1	$207	283	0	+283	No	-$207	05-15 10:04
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	8	$198	131	131	+0	Yes	+$64	02-23 17:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	4	$164	192	0	+192	Yes	+$28	05-12 10:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14?	2	$162	89	89	+0	Yes	+$4	05-14 07:13
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 75m and 100m views in its first 7 days	14	$133	220	5	+215	Yes	+$89	02-12 21:58
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	8	$127	165	165	+0	Yes	+$81	02-27 07:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	2	$127	212	0	+212	No	-$127	05-06 19:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 07:30 UTC	32	$121	156	150	+6	Up	+$29	07-03 07:34
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	3	$120	135	0	+135	Yes	+$15	05-11 09:14
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3?	2	$117	61	61	+0	Yes	+$5	05-05 15:07
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	1	$116	642	0	+642	open	—	09-15 10:56
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?	3	$115	75	75	+0	No	+$15	05-13 15:53
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 280 299	2	$114	960	0	+960	No	-$114	02-23 17:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 07:25 UTC	15	$95	140	132	+9	Up	+$9	07-03 07:29
trump drops powell investigation by february 28	2	$86	50	50	+0	No	+$3	02-19 07:13
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$85	57	57	+0	No	+$8	02-02 07:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?	2	$84	46	46	+0	No	+$4	05-15 08:32
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?	3	$82	62	62	+0	No	+$2	05-15 07:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 06:45 UTC	9	$80	124	124	+0	Up	$0	07-03 06:48
elon musk of tweets february 19 february 21 90 114	7	$79	126	126	+0	No	+$16	02-20 21:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 07:10 UTC	18	$78	112	112	+0	Down	+$10	07-03 07:12
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	4	$72	113	113	+0	Yes	-$18	05-12 10:12
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?	2	$64	40	40	+0	Down	+$4	05-15 08:32
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13?	2	$62	37	37	+0	No	+$2	05-13 09:03
nancy guthrie kidnapper arrested by february 28	2	$59	40	40	+0	No	+$7	02-19 07:21
Will England win on 2026-07-01?	4	$54	55	55	+0	Yes	+$14	07-01 17:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-15 10:56:37	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	642	18¢	$116	0x8ab875…
07-06 07:34:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xd1afc0…
07-06 07:34:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x2520a0…
07-06 07:34:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x700866…
07-06 07:33:47	ufc bra6 lon 2026 07 11	Brandon Royval	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x780be7…
07-06 07:33:47	ufc eth1 far1 2026 07 11	Farid Basharat	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x6bacbe…
07-06 07:20:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xac537f…
07-06 07:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x030f2a…
07-06 07:16:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xf9593d…
07-06 07:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xfdafb1…
07-06 07:15:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:15 UTC	Down	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x9d967e…
07-06 07:15:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x93265f…
07-06 07:14:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xdba3d5…
07-06 07:14:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x6ab734…
07-06 07:13:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:10 UTC	Down	SELL	4	66¢	$2	0xdf2a2e…
07-06 07:12:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9c7499…
07-06 07:11:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xefd7e8…
07-06 07:06:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:05 UTC	Down	SELL	36	21¢	$7	0x69fd8f…
07-06 07:05:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xd64baf…
07-06 07:05:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x256f9b…
07-06 07:05:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x0ae9fd…
07-06 06:57:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:55 UTC	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xbdb758…
07-06 06:56:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb5b9fe…
07-06 06:55:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x807357…
07-06 06:53:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x5944a6…
07-06 06:52:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x8185ce…
07-06 06:52:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa470b4…
07-06 06:48:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:45 UTC	Up	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0x7b96d7…
07-06 06:47:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xbf929d…
07-06 06:45:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xb23487…
07-06 06:45:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:45 UTC	Down	SELL	11	61¢	$7	0x2daaa4…
07-06 06:45:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xb7bc69…
07-06 06:45:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xdd708b…
07-06 06:42:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:40 UTC	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x2d246b…
07-06 06:42:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xd1fd05…
07-06 06:29:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe463f3…
07-06 06:10:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x2dcd99…
07-06 06:10:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:10 UTC	Up	SELL	3	47¢	$1	0x60865f…
07-06 06:10:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x119abc…
07-06 06:07:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:05 UTC	Up	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x91254b…
07-06 06:07:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:05 UTC	Up	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0x2258b8…
07-06 06:07:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:05 UTC	Up	SELL	3	23¢	$1	0x59c08b…
07-06 06:06:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa52fab…
07-06 06:05:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x48d9f9…
07-06 06:03:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x32b757…
07-06 06:02:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x408a8e…
07-06 05:58:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:55 UTC	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x9ae0a0…
07-06 05:55:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x1f7712…
07-06 05:54:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x97d15f…
07-06 05:53:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc810d1…
07-06 05:53:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x80fe37…
07-06 05:51:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x510845…
07-06 05:48:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:45 UTC	Down	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x82f7e0…
07-06 05:45:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x7e47b7…
07-06 05:41:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:40 UTC	Down	SELL	33	47¢	$15	0x6c73c5…
07-06 05:40:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xc2b88e…
07-06 05:40:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x3b1b39…
07-06 05:40:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x15304f…
07-06 05:40:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4d7d62…
07-06 05:35:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xfb6987…
07-06 05:35:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x8ee7a4…
07-06 05:35:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x8d557c…
07-06 05:34:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x8fa345…
07-06 05:33:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Down	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xa3033e…
07-06 05:33:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x4dc7ff…
07-06 05:32:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$2	0x030fdf…
07-06 05:32:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Up	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x33d88b…
07-06 05:32:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x6ab9e5…
07-06 05:31:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Down	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xe5f00d…
07-06 05:31:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb76b2f…
07-06 05:27:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x2be13c…
07-06 05:08:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:05 UTC	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x7fef9b…
07-06 05:06:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xf38ad9…
07-05 12:51:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x6543c4…
07-05 12:51:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 12:50 UTC	Up	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xa6b945…
07-05 12:50:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x5bc007…
07-05 12:50:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x0c41a7…
07-05 12:50:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x0a9c57…
07-05 10:42:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7627f7…
07-05 10:42:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xc767e9…
07-03 13:17:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:15 UTC	Down	SELL	9	42¢	$4	0x52c921…
07-03 13:16:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x9c7375…
07-03 13:15:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb95bbe…
07-03 13:15:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xa95538…
07-03 13:12:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x986622…
07-03 13:11:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x406446…
07-03 13:10:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x3e3496…
07-03 13:10:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xb71db2…
07-03 13:08:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Down	SELL	4	38¢	$1	0xf165f7…
07-03 13:08:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x149aba…
07-03 13:07:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x06bf02…
07-03 13:07:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Up	SELL	71	37¢	$26	0xec6ca4…
07-03 13:05:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x8ac598…
07-03 13:05:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x24eb9a…
07-03 13:05:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x826fb6…
07-03 13:05:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x61b9cb…
07-03 13:05:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xf95152…
07-03 13:05:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xb05356…
07-03 13:05:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xfd1081…
07-03 13:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xb05853…