Bouncy-Vanilla — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

32.6%

Resolved

Trades

130

lifetime

Volume

$985

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$38

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 07-06 19:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

67% 75% $-30

Tech

17% — —

Politics

14% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	No	-27	$-24	92¢	$-25	$-2	06-16 22:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+7	$5	96¢	$7	+$2	06-08 10:54
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	+6	$5	64¢	$4	$-1	06-16 15:51
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-26	$-4	8¢	$-2	+$1	06-30 11:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$79	48	48	+0	open	—	04-12 19:31
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$74	600	600	+0	open	—	03-31 21:09
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	6	$73	285	142	+143	No	$-37	04-15 02:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$54	32	32	+0	open	—	04-03 15:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	7	$53	35	35	+0	open	—	05-18 09:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	5	$48	71	71	+1	open	—	04-08 03:43
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$41	507	507	+0	open	—	03-30 14:14
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	4	$33	32	32	+0	open	—	06-08 07:17
will the next claude haiku model be released by october 31 2026 20260701205353328	1	$30	39	0	+39	open	—	07-06 19:50
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	5	$28	33	33	+0	open	—	06-17 16:38
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	5	$27	61	0	+61	open	—	06-17 08:25
will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	2	$24	19	19	+0	open	—	06-08 07:18
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	2	$24	0	27	-27	open	—	06-16 22:05
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	2	$22	17	17	+0	open	—	06-01 10:41
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$21	31	31	+0	open	—	04-01 18:44
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$20	11	11	+0	Yes	+$0	04-28 10:53
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	1	$20	24	0	+24	open	—	05-24 15:49
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	1	$20	26	0	+26	open	—	06-08 07:24
next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	3	$19	40	40	+0	open	—	06-26 18:52
will 25 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 23 29	3	$18	56	13	+43	open	—	03-30 14:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	4	$18	23	23	+0	open	—	04-30 07:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	3	$17	25	0	+25	open	—	05-15 09:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	04-13 06:47
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	1	$15	106	0	+106	open	—	04-01 05:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2	$15	20	20	+0	open	—	05-19 12:09
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	5	$13	147	147	+0	open	—	04-06 09:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	3	$12	127	69	+58	open	—	04-08 03:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	05-13 09:32
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-24 20:59
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	3	$10	12	9	+3	open	—	04-25 10:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 19:50:38	will the next claude haiku model be released by october 31 2026 20260701205353328	Yes	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0xc436a5…
07-05 12:02:49	will us withdraw from nato by august 31	Yes	BUY	265	4¢	$10	0x714b41…
06-30 11:05:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	13¢	$2	0x91e8b0…
06-26 18:52:50	next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	19	23¢	$4	0x12f326…
06-26 12:12:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	14¢	$2	0x5495ce…
06-25 18:10:56	next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	21	23¢	$5	0x918a4c…
06-17 16:38:23	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0x7d9cfc…
06-17 08:25:28	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x293cd4…
06-17 07:48:07	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xc2f8b2…
06-16 22:06:55	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5239ca…
06-16 22:05:53	Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	No	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0x459053…
06-16 18:22:43	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x06948b…
06-16 16:03:41	next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x34d2f7…
06-16 15:54:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0x229fba…
06-16 15:51:01	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xeeb925…
06-16 15:50:28	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x0a8fe8…
06-16 15:46:44	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x54e763…
06-16 15:46:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x56face…
06-16 15:44:32	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x63bc40…
06-16 11:26:06	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0xdc2455…
06-08 10:54:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xb5f5b0…
06-08 08:07:46	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x2daa8a…
06-08 07:24:06	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	27	19¢	$5	0x31ef7b…
06-08 07:24:00	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xf4e92f…
06-08 07:18:28	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	No	SELL	19	73¢	$14	0xad4a5d…
06-08 07:17:40	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	71¢	$8	0x511a04…
06-08 07:17:04	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x1f2418…
06-03 06:55:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xd8e4ae…
06-02 14:21:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xe17eac…
06-01 10:41:25	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	71¢	$12	0x0c1131…
06-01 06:48:52	Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	No	SELL	14	87¢	$12	0xa06f26…
06-01 06:47:47	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x1758a5…
06-01 06:47:23	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xaacea6…
06-01 06:44:30	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xadd24a…
06-01 06:43:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xae1630…
05-24 15:49:53	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xb239f4…
05-19 12:09:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xb3e729…
05-18 09:06:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	14	80¢	$12	0x005b18…
05-18 09:03:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	14	80¢	$11	0x932c82…
05-16 23:01:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	7	81¢	$5	0x34b4d7…
05-15 09:08:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x678dea…
05-15 09:05:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x361e76…
05-13 20:18:19	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xd53b4b…
05-13 09:32:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x484cf1…
05-13 06:02:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xdaf04c…
05-12 03:01:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x781c3f…
05-12 03:01:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xf276da…
05-11 19:46:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xa5c344…
05-09 05:40:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x1785f2…
05-09 05:37:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x338e38…
05-01 08:40:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x887aea…
04-30 07:50:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0xd300e4…
04-30 07:04:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x708fb1…
04-28 10:53:12	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xa52d30…
04-25 10:43:32	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x95d018…
04-25 07:06:00	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0xd5a014…
04-24 20:59:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0x1050b2…
04-23 05:54:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x050196…
04-23 05:49:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x4f3f54…
04-17 15:14:32	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0x86b716…
04-15 22:14:32	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	SELL	56	1¢	$1	0x635069…
04-15 16:47:30	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x086154…
04-15 02:09:00	Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x9dabd9…
04-15 02:08:22	Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	95	10¢	$10	0xbea346…
04-13 06:47:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x0d911b…
04-13 05:26:35	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xe04958…
04-12 19:31:31	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x42a1be…
04-08 03:43:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0xc78a16…
04-08 03:43:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x1c04e0…
04-06 09:59:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0x55af00…
04-06 09:55:27	Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x03d170…
04-06 09:51:03	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	SELL	37	6¢	$2	0x1fa3f7…
04-06 03:21:31	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	SELL	24	6¢	$1	0x2aa49d…
04-06 03:17:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x2450ba…
04-06 03:01:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x90399a…
04-06 03:01:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0xf96afc…
04-05 20:27:13	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0x35ae6f…
04-05 07:30:37	Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	26	22¢	$6	0xfaa84f…
04-04 09:13:47	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0x1db0ab…
04-04 00:47:49	btc updown 5m 1775263500	Up	SELL	3	18¢	$0	0x6ffdc2…
04-04 00:45:57	btc updown 5m 1775263500	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x4a2b54…
04-03 21:45:29	btc updown 5m 1775252700	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x24a3ce…
04-03 21:42:51	btc updown 5m 1775252400	Down	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0x819edb…
04-03 21:42:25	btc updown 5m 1775252400	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4b5bdf…
04-03 21:41:15	btc updown 5m 1775252400	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x00e0ba…
04-03 21:28:37	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x16d884…
04-03 21:16:13	btc updown 5m 1775250600	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x04f0ad…
04-03 21:11:17	btc updown 5m 1775250600	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x08c726…
04-03 21:10:43	Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x2a2efe…
04-03 21:05:37	btc updown 5m 1775250300	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc041ac…
04-03 21:03:09	btc updown 5m 1775250000	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x74b393…
04-03 21:02:17	btc updown 5m 1775250000	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa25704…
04-03 21:02:01	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0xccf437…
04-03 20:57:37	btc updown 5m 1775249700	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x4215cf…
04-03 20:52:17	btc updown 5m 1775249400	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xfdaf69…
04-03 20:49:13	btc updown 5m 1775249100	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf53d9c…
04-03 20:46:29	btc updown 5m 1775249100	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x1244e9…
04-03 20:46:07	btc updown 5m 1775248800	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe0c69b…
04-03 20:31:35	btc updown 5m 1775248200	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xe24d16…
04-03 20:29:11	btc updown 5m 1775247900	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x14e5df…