Any-Government — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$120

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.0%

Resolved

Trades

4,564

lifetime

Volume

$77.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 23:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

55% 0% $-3

Other

38% 100% +$118

Crypto

4% 33% +$4

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 82 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	43	$6.5K	5,244	5,700	-456	open	—	06-17 11:34
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	34	$5.6K	3,097	3,097	+0	open	—	02-03 00:27
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	10	$2.8K	1,401	1,401	+0	open	—	04-16 20:00
will iran strike israel on march 10	15	$2.8K	1,851	1,883	-31	open	—	03-14 15:24
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$2.5K	2,422	453	+1,969	open	—	06-02 17:52
Will the US strike Somalia next?	6	$2.3K	1,187	1,187	+0	open	—	01-15 23:21
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	7	$2.1K	1,140	1,140	+0	open	—	01-08 03:16
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	5	$2.0K	1,078	1,078	+0	open	—	02-28 23:03
Trump out as President by April 30?	4	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-05 13:21
us strike on somalia by january 31 338	27	$1.8K	1,286	624	+662	open	—	01-23 18:32
Will the US strike Iran next?	3	$1.7K	900	900	+0	open	—	03-02 00:06
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	24	$1.7K	940	940	+0	open	—	02-03 00:32
us strike on somalia by february 28	2	$1.6K	808	808	+0	open	—	02-10 14:18
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$1.5K	1,644	160	+1,484	open	—	04-07 01:52
another us government shutdown by february 14	8	$1.5K	794	794	+0	open	—	02-15 05:25
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	50	$1.3K	3,350	3,450	-100	open	—	08-10 12:56
will trump meet with satya nadella in january 2026	2	$1.2K	656	656	+0	open	—	01-22 02:49
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	2	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	01-12 01:29
will russia capture zarichne by february 28 2026	12	$916	734	196	+538	open	—	01-21 15:09
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	4	$910	0	1,000	-1,000	open	—	07-30 00:11
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	6	$677	671	35	+636	open	—	01-26 21:52
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	2	$596	600	0	+600	open	—	01-19 01:34
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	24	$595	1,713	1,463	+250	open	—	07-29 20:29
will trump say leader or leadership during meetings with slovak prime minister	1	$560	563	0	+563	open	—	01-18 04:17
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	49	$554	1,350	940	+410	open	—	08-07 21:43
untitled market 1 20260629155005352	15	$545	1,068	718	+350	open	—	07-26 20:10
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	18	$539	934	934	+0	open	—	07-15 02:12
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	10	$517	1,119	1,219	-100	open	—	05-23 13:03
machado wears a dress or skirt during next trump meeting	7	$487	249	249	+0	open	—	01-15 18:38
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	19	$433	2,008	2,008	+0	open	—	08-08 18:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 01:09:55	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	26	56¢	$14	0xe8c8c2…
08-10 23:31:48	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	104	56¢	$58	0xd4a549…
08-10 23:22:45	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xc45b80…
08-10 23:18:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xc19e44…
08-10 22:57:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	16	10¢	$2	0x05ba91…
08-10 22:42:40	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	No	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x3f6480…
08-10 22:34:28	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xe6d6b3…
08-10 22:34:28	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	BUY	84	14¢	$12	0xcd5e88…
08-10 22:31:10	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	No	BUY	145	95¢	$138	0x69899e…
08-10 22:29:04	will kai or speed die to a witch 20260808122756578	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xd07e2f…
08-10 22:25:30	will kai or speed die to a pillager 20260808122745361	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x5d0bc4…
08-10 22:25:27	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x7a43bf…
08-10 20:15:19	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	Yes	BUY	34	57¢	$20	0x269083…
08-10 19:41:10	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x544d8b…
08-10 19:16:24	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x02a18b…
08-10 19:12:31	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	Yes	BUY	1	57¢	$0	0x97ad98…
08-10 19:12:31	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x30046a…
08-10 19:11:55	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	90	16¢	$14	0x26feb1…
08-10 18:30:34	will kai or speed be eliminated by fire 20260807142948638	No	BUY	52	30¢	$16	0x00b0bf…
08-10 18:13:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	250	4¢	$10	0x3ea5b4…
08-10 17:25:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	82	1¢	$0	0x40533a…
08-10 17:25:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	168	1¢	$1	0xee4a32…
08-10 16:15:52	will kai or speed have more in game deaths 20260808192817373	Speed	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x08227c…
08-10 15:53:54	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xa7fa28…
08-10 15:22:00	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0x1091c6…
08-10 15:19:36	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	120	13¢	$16	0x82ee8b…
08-10 14:05:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$3	0x854742…
08-10 13:33:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0xdc8b29…
08-10 13:20:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x9fcc33…
08-10 13:06:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xbe58e9…
08-10 13:06:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0xa82f51…
08-10 12:56:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	250	8¢	$20	0xa5c69a…
08-10 09:49:33	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x416de4…
08-10 09:44:21	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0xd0f791…
08-10 08:37:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x749403…
08-10 07:20:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0x5ac1a1…
08-10 06:06:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$25	0x9699fe…
08-10 06:03:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x7b417a…
08-10 05:53:01	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0xceb254…
08-10 05:38:40	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	143	17¢	$24	0x1ed1bc…
08-10 05:35:12	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	2	33¢	$0	0x963b6a…
08-10 05:35:10	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0x8c9b49…
08-10 05:16:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	250	9¢	$22	0x617f2f…
08-10 05:12:15	will kai or speed die to a blaze 20260806175301188	No	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x0bd540…
08-10 01:40:15	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x269303…
08-10 01:23:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0xb514cc…
08-10 00:32:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0x9bd33b…
08-09 22:57:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$0	0xa77585…
08-09 22:56:25	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	150	25¢	$38	0xc7fc89…
08-09 22:20:28	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0x7b87ea…
08-09 22:17:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	250	11¢	$28	0xdc8d32…
08-09 22:13:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	250	11¢	$28	0xfbc109…
08-09 22:02:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0x2dc2c9…
08-09 22:01:07	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0x49ea3d…
08-09 22:01:06	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xc1fc7d…
08-09 22:01:03	will kai or speed die to a spider 20260806175301186	No	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0x651530…
08-09 21:51:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	500	12¢	$60	0x9818e2…
08-09 21:37:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x9ee644…
08-09 21:37:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0x4ba856…
08-09 21:37:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xcca18b…
08-09 21:37:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xb4b61d…
08-09 21:37:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x2f1dfb…
08-09 21:35:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x1c76ec…
08-09 21:34:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xceed80…
08-09 21:34:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x9ff0c7…
08-09 21:34:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x6ea994…
08-09 21:34:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x87c19c…
08-09 20:32:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	250	6¢	$15	0x5405a2…
08-09 19:59:10	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	150	26¢	$39	0x6f795f…
08-09 19:01:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x2cc9cb…
08-09 19:00:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x092925…
08-09 17:59:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	250	9¢	$22	0x052491…
08-09 17:38:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x34c05a…
08-09 17:38:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x109dd3…
08-09 04:27:51	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	133	46¢	$61	0xad4845…
08-09 04:23:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x566f53…
08-09 04:10:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x76f2fd…
08-09 04:06:25	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	17	46¢	$8	0xa82931…
08-09 03:07:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xd6e163…
08-09 01:45:42	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xae2dda…
08-09 01:28:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xe5cfdb…
08-08 22:40:33	will kai or speed die to a wither skeleton 20260806175301190	Yes	BUY	25	67¢	$17	0xbec662…
08-08 22:39:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0x23d661…
08-08 22:33:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xf99256…
08-08 22:26:01	will kai or speed be eliminated by magic 20260807142948640	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x81e5e0…
08-08 22:21:39	will kai or speed be eliminated by magic 20260807142948640	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x1b554b…
08-08 22:09:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xb71ad5…
08-08 22:01:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xaf44c9…
08-08 21:03:52	will kai or speed be eliminated by magic 20260807142948640	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xd764cd…
08-08 20:47:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xb6aca9…
08-08 18:57:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	500	8¢	$40	0xe2ab56…
08-08 02:51:00	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by august 31 20260728195644465	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xfa8122…
08-07 21:43:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x169ec3…
08-07 18:50:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$0	0xc9f98f…
08-07 18:50:49	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	Yes	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0x51931d…
08-07 18:50:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	400	1¢	$3	0x0042c5…
08-07 17:26:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x2aaad5…
08-07 00:56:57	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	Yes	SELL	49	4¢	$2	0xd856d9…
08-07 00:21:11	will gareth bale attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630271	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x679a07…
08-07 00:14:29	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	Yes	SELL	216	4¢	$9	0xbc5d4d…