Idealistic-Fail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

54.5%

Resolved

193

Trades

2,068

lifetime

Volume

$8.38K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

1 position

First seen

2026-04-15

last 06-05 13:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 67% $-22

Other

5% — —

Politics

4% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 130 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-24	$-19	86¢	$-20	$-1	06-03 22:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$241	155	104	+51	open	—	05-29 16:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	2	$213	115	115	+0	open	—	05-21 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	7	$173	133	133	+0	open	—	05-21 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	3	$115	142	80	+63	open	—	05-21 00:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	2	$110	126	0	+126	open	—	05-21 01:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	6	$105	107	79	+28	Up	$-25	05-05 22:49
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	4	$104	56	56	+0	open	—	04-24 14:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	1	$100	139	0	+139	open	—	05-21 01:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	1	$100	146	0	+146	open	—	05-21 01:00
btc updown 5m 1777039200	6	$93	50	46	+4	open	—	04-24 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	2	$82	55	55	+0	open	—	05-01 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	3	$80	128	0	+128	open	—	05-21 12:57
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	3	$79	35	59	-24	open	—	06-03 22:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	8	$75	104	35	+69	open	—	05-01 14:54
btc updown 5m 1776952200	4	$65	91	29	+62	open	—	04-23 13:51
highest temperature in hong kong on april 18 2026 27c	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	04-18 06:05
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$62	48	48	+0	open	—	04-28 09:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	3	$60	72	39	+34	open	—	04-25 07:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	5	$59	66	35	+31	Down	$-21	05-13 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	5	$58	38	38	+0	open	—	06-01 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	5	$57	41	39	+2	open	—	05-21 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	6	$56	84	54	+29	open	—	05-02 13:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	6	$55	56	40	+15	open	—	05-20 13:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$54	70	0	+70	open	—	04-25 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	3	$53	34	32	+2	Up	+$11	05-13 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	6	$51	34	34	+0	open	—	05-01 16:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	1	$50	56	0	+56	open	—	05-21 01:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	7	$49	40	40	+0	open	—	05-22 06:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	3	$46	41	39	+2	open	—	05-03 09:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	5	$46	36	36	+0	open	—	05-14 08:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 13:03:52	btc updown 5m 1780664400	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xcb7a46…
06-05 12:51:46	btc updown 5m 1780663800	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd5ca27…
06-03 22:47:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	59	84¢	$49	0x960a84…
06-03 18:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x51e0df…
06-03 18:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x8bc8db…
06-02 20:35:11	Morocco vs. Madagascar: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x96ee3a…
06-02 17:58:58	Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x778742…
06-02 02:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x64a4d5…
06-01 18:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xade64d…
06-01 18:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x0ea943…
06-01 18:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x5076bd…
06-01 18:28:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x39609c…
06-01 18:27:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x81d78b…
06-01 18:15:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xfdd983…
06-01 16:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xc4205d…
06-01 13:17:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xe41022…
06-01 13:16:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x1c592f…
06-01 13:11:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xce0f59…
06-01 13:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xf8f74c…
06-01 13:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0xc712ee…
06-01 13:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xf3ca74…
06-01 13:03:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd244ce…
06-01 13:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4d9024…
06-01 12:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xccade5…
06-01 12:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x8e9342…
06-01 12:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0x5e3dc0…
06-01 12:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x5a6cd3…
06-01 12:54:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	11	50¢	$6	0x6c73a9…
06-01 12:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x0644fc…
06-01 12:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	27	80¢	$22	0xdf6ec4…
06-01 12:52:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xf8f808…
06-01 12:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xdef2b3…
05-31 23:18:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7862ae…
05-31 23:15:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xc4b8ac…
05-31 18:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x15039f…
05-31 18:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x99bbd4…
05-31 14:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa1ed5a…
05-31 14:01:34	Switzerland vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xd8a9ab…
05-31 13:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x7bc4b8…
05-31 10:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xa31317…
05-31 10:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xd6f1ec…
05-31 08:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xcaa692…
05-31 05:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x14b601…
05-30 23:57:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x227111…
05-30 21:47:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x3e15f7…
05-30 15:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x0647b4…
05-30 15:15:56	Morocco vs. Madagascar: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x739b9f…
05-30 15:08:17	fif esp irq 2026 06 04 spread home 1pt5	Spain	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa2615d…
05-30 13:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x2b99c8…
05-30 07:47:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x1bcac1…
05-29 16:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x19167f…
05-29 16:23:40	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xd01f01…
05-29 16:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0xe598a9…
05-29 16:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	13	20¢	$3	0x03d72e…
05-29 16:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xfc60e6…
05-29 16:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x292d35…
05-29 16:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x50347d…
05-29 11:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa1f058…
05-29 00:45:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x50e200…
05-29 00:12:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x716b7f…
05-28 11:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x18d98a…
05-28 11:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xf32d91…
05-28 11:36:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xaf4fa9…
05-28 11:35:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x83fbda…
05-28 11:34:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xec7611…
05-28 10:26:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa4a6fc…
05-28 07:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x5a5466…
05-28 04:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x26a04c…
05-28 04:15:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xa203fd…
05-27 17:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	24¢	$1	0x4d4afe…
05-27 17:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x7834ad…
05-27 17:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xe2d0c2…
05-27 17:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0xc2c35e…
05-27 17:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xd72875…
05-27 17:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x308990…
05-27 17:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa6b378…
05-27 17:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x3d492c…
05-27 17:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x8084ed…
05-27 17:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5ee235…
05-27 09:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x72f053…
05-27 06:53:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7ca5ad…
05-27 01:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7c48d7…
05-27 00:18:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x0a187d…
05-26 22:53:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8b5ce4…
05-26 22:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x3864db…
05-26 14:52:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc763b7…
05-26 14:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xdd45fd…
05-26 14:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xe8e77f…
05-26 14:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x194bf3…
05-26 14:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0xdb6790…
05-26 14:46:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3825ec…
05-26 14:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbb74ea…
05-26 14:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xfe92f9…
05-26 14:43:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	79¢	$3	0x1346ae…
05-26 14:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x99b167…
05-26 14:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	65¢	$2	0xed4b28…
05-26 14:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x974f8a…
05-26 14:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x958fd2…
05-26 14:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x45de95…
05-26 14:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xc551bd…