Carefree-Path — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$306

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

42.1%

Resolved

508

Trades

2,656

lifetime

Volume

$2.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 10-24 15:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

73% 23% -$245

Politics

15% 28% +$23

Sports

8% 15% -$72

Crypto

2% 36% -$10

Tech

2% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes		-6	-$9	55¢	$-3	+$6	08-18 12:28
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No		-1	$0	43¢	$-1	-$1	08-18 12:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	104	$164	372	360	+12	Yes	+$10	04-28 03:54
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17?	19	$55	160	89	+72	Yes	-$5	05-18 02:07
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-02?	42	$53	300	159	+141	No	-$12	05-02 19:08
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	93	$52	1,264	1,263	+0	No	$0	05-13 16:13
Will Moreirense FC vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?	18	$50	74	74	+0	No	-$34	05-02 16:30
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?	10	$45	49	53	-4	No	+$14	05-17 19:40
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	26	$44	1,684	444	+1,240	Yes	+$7	05-01 22:17
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01?	13	$41	45	43	+2	Yes	+$4	05-01 18:31
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	18	$40	77	83	-6	open	—	08-18 12:28
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-01?	9	$39	45	45	+0	Yes	-$11	05-02 05:51
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	21	$36	64	84	-20	Yes	+$8	04-28 09:38
Will VOX (VOX) win 13-15 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?	12	$33	43	42	+0	Yes	+$17	05-17 20:20
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	8	$33	26	28	-1	open	—	08-18 12:10
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	12	$32	42	41	+2	open	—	09-06 17:02
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-05-02?	10	$29	361	13	+349	Yes	-$21	05-02 16:30
Will FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc vs. FCSB end in a draw?	9	$29	38	24	+15	No	-$2	05-01 19:17
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-02?	8	$28	48	47	+0	Yes	-$2	05-02 16:37
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-02?	13	$25	29	29	+0	No	+$5	05-02 20:31
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 59-61 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?	37	$25	183	173	+10	No	-$5	06-03 00:28
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-05-01?	13	$23	29	28	+2	No	$0	05-02 21:46
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	9	$23	37	37	+0	open	—	08-17 09:28
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings - Team Top Batter Quetta Gladiators Winner	3	$20	13	20	-7	Yes	+$12	04-25 12:56
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers	8	$20	45	16	+29	No	-$6	04-24 23:49
Will Cesc Fabregas be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	16	$20	59	42	+16	No	+$2	05-15 03:06
Will Haras El Hodood SC win on 2026-05-18?	15	$20	70	68	+1	Yes	+$0	05-18 15:40
CD Garcilaso vs. CU Técnica de Cajamarca: Both Teams to Score	9	$20	71	21	+50	No	+$0	05-17 20:10
Will VOX (VOX) win 16-18 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?	11	$19	25	32	-7	No	-$3	05-18 12:59
Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	5	$19	13	29	-16	open	—	08-24 11:24
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by April 30, 2026?	7	$19	21	19	+2	Yes	-$1	04-25 20:52
Will FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?	31	$18	89	46	+43	No	-$5	05-02 20:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:53:32	Will Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x791e7d…
10-24 15:22:48	Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x160e78…
10-23 13:19:06	Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x5dfac6…
10-22 11:23:44	Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xbc2552…
10-21 09:31:41	Will Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0xc35a99…
10-20 17:08:42	Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xe21d89…
10-16 07:59:24	Will Katie Britt be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x1ce342…
10-16 07:51:52	Will Katie Britt be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0xcd4e00…
10-10 04:58:04	Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xcd9172…
10-09 23:54:25	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xb42351…
10-09 22:53:41	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0xabb115…
10-07 04:28:41	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x067f93…
10-06 05:00:00	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0xa808e7…
10-05 19:51:44	Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	18	1¢	$0	0x68393e…
10-05 11:19:11	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x1b79a8…
10-05 09:17:58	Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	18	1¢	$0	0x2c0b67…
10-04 17:50:47	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x7ece47…
10-04 16:17:50	Will Brian Kemp be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x770829…
10-03 22:57:10	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x7e9851…
10-03 17:08:17	Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x6b4b94…
09-29 21:13:45	Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0xad1ac3…
09-27 08:37:51	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xa803e6…
09-25 21:47:15	Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	26	2¢	$1	0x4ddd07…
09-25 01:21:50	Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0xba8db6…
09-23 20:36:55	Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11	16¢	$2	0x83e365…
09-21 23:12:39	Will Brian Kemp be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	18	1¢	$0	0xd80cb4…
09-20 09:48:19	Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0xc4a7dc…
09-18 09:09:45	Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x46020b…
09-18 07:57:55	Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x9ddc91…
09-17 16:29:22	Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0x37578d…
09-15 21:48:49	Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xb9cfa6…
09-13 12:37:24	Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0xdb4c1b…
09-12 23:38:31	Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	9	38¢	$4	0x5fe8a2…
09-11 08:04:04	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$1	0xf1e5e5…
09-11 07:12:48	Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	5¢	$1	0xe50a3a…
09-10 14:50:51	Will Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0xf75c81…
09-10 14:50:51	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0xd9f998…
09-10 14:50:51	Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0xa532b8…
09-10 14:50:51	Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x9a9cb1…
09-10 14:50:51	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0x70eb9d…
09-10 14:50:51	Will Katie Britt be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0x263136…
09-10 14:50:49	Will Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x83905c…
09-10 12:20:12	Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x40605c…
09-06 17:02:25	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x152dd1…
09-04 17:38:54	Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xd6c2d2…
09-03 08:23:04	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x1a4422…
09-02 19:42:21	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x305a4c…
09-01 15:35:36	Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0x2abf2f…
09-01 10:19:34	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x9d7dd1…
09-01 10:19:10	Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0x5f34a1…
08-30 06:34:03	Will Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x92288d…
08-28 20:53:58	Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xdf309a…
08-28 20:53:55	Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x3fdf5c…
08-28 20:23:40	Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xeda570…
08-27 16:51:22	Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	18	12¢	$2	0x23571e…
08-26 19:24:45	Will Lyon qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x23e77c…
08-26 08:49:57	Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0x05e310…
08-25 22:55:21	Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xd16c11…
08-25 21:45:15	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xd66e33…
08-24 19:39:36	Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x199670…
08-24 13:01:09	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0x1e1196…
08-24 13:01:07	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xbd6765…
08-24 13:00:16	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x9d10cd…
08-24 12:25:30	Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$3	0xef5d6b…
08-24 11:24:09	Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0x09d03d…
08-24 02:55:58	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0xd5607c…
08-23 13:06:30	Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	21	16¢	$3	0xffc3a2…
08-23 09:32:57	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	43¢	$3	0xd26f0e…
08-21 18:35:24	Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x266882…
08-21 07:47:01	Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xce10c3…
08-20 19:32:00	Will Lyon qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xa9eaf1…
08-20 13:54:30	Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xec5c14…
08-20 13:28:22	Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0xc0b619…
08-19 01:45:04	Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x2e41bd…
08-19 01:40:28	Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x41687a…
08-18 16:37:24	Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xc4650e…
08-18 16:23:00	Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	58¢	$4	0xb46c82…
08-18 13:38:04	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x161b56…
08-18 12:28:22	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0x26559b…
08-18 12:10:55	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	SELL	9	48¢	$4	0xf2e650…
08-18 07:25:36	Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xaec609…
08-18 07:09:04	Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x73f949…
08-18 05:56:06	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xae0e85…
08-17 22:54:46	Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0xd4d7f5…
08-17 21:21:51	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x504d84…
08-17 16:07:01	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0x44c3ec…
08-17 15:08:42	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	SELL	7	59¢	$4	0x294111…
08-17 13:25:54	Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x449df5…
08-17 12:56:46	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x8a24ff…
08-17 12:56:27	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x88c954…
08-17 09:29:48	Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	21	18¢	$4	0xe97084…
08-17 09:28:19	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xb21317…
08-17 04:26:04	Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x214e6d…
08-17 01:14:46	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xe58dfb…
08-16 21:35:06	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	SELL	7	58¢	$4	0x3af5b8…
08-16 21:15:36	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	BUY	6	57¢	$4	0xd44e5b…
08-16 16:08:48	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x2abe3c…
08-16 15:17:27	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x6d3a53…
08-15 15:22:48	Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf9b34b…
08-15 09:04:42	Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x5451b2…