Frail-Heirloom — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$59

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

64.1%

Resolved

124

Trades

434

lifetime

Volume

$4.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$104

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-19

last 10-25 10:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

54% 65% +$19

Politics

33% 51% -$41

Crypto

12% 33% -$37

Tech

1% 100% +$2

Sports

0% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-56	-$37	82¢	$-46	-$9	04-28 20:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+25	$20	88¢	$22	+$2	09-29 14:41
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+24	$20	89¢	$21	+$1	10-06 19:42
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+48	$17	30¢	$15	-$3	10-11 00:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	19	$195	131	131	+0	No	+$3	05-29 11:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	13	$147	107	107	+0	No	-$1	05-06 22:41
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	8	$145	98	98	+0	Yes	+$3	09-20 18:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	9	$130	74	74	+0	No	+$7	06-26 21:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	8	$98	74	49	+25	open	—	09-29 14:41
will wti reach 95 in july 2026	5	$76	42	42	+0	No	+$1	07-29 16:18
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	6	$73	41	41	+0	No	+$1	05-20 09:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$72	42	42	+0	No	+$4	07-11 18:37
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	4	$72	41	41	+0	No	+$3	08-08 20:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	4	$70	41	41	+0	No	-$4	07-30 13:17
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	6	$69	38	38	+0	No	+$1	05-07 15:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	6	$68	39	39	+0	No	+$4	05-11 02:27
will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	4	$67	42	42	+0	No	-$4	07-26 09:53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	6	$65	39	39	+0	No	+$2	05-10 20:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$64	43	43	+0	No	-$2	05-24 03:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	5	$61	37	37	+0	No	+$2	08-18 15:10
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	6	$61	39	39	+0	open	—	09-15 18:38
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	9	$60	69	69	+0	Yes	-$8	04-24 14:55
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	3	$59	34	34	+0	open	—	10-03 09:01
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	9	$59	226	226	+0	No	-$10	05-04 08:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$59	46	46	+0	Yes	$0	08-28 14:07
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	5	$57	32	32	+0	Yes	+$2	07-29 20:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	6	$56	43	43	+0	No	-$3	10-22 12:45
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	4	$55	34	34	+0	No	+$0	10-23 16:36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$52	38	25	+13	No	+$6	07-22 14:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	6	$51	31	31	+0	No	+$7	05-24 21:55
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	4	$50	28	28	+0	No	+$1	05-18 07:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	4	$48	26	26	+0	No	+$1	05-21 19:02
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?	6	$46	218	218	+0	Yes	-$2	05-04 15:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	3	$43	26	26	+0	No	+$4	09-13 10:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 10:57:38	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	13	50¢	$7	0xa234a6…
10-25 10:19:57	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x023422…
10-25 09:38:47	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0x28fa0e…
10-25 08:55:30	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0x810b0a…
10-23 16:36:48	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$7	0x8428a8…
10-22 19:07:42	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x44b7e6…
10-22 12:45:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x738a44…
10-15 12:46:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xf91ebc…
10-14 12:47:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	14	54¢	$7	0x086806…
10-11 00:05:51	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	36¢	$17	0x7125c8…
10-10 23:55:33	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x8e24e6…
10-08 14:39:12	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	47¢	$7	0x875721…
10-06 19:42:36	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x2dca13…
10-05 23:13:43	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xf80948…
10-05 22:55:49	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xb61471…
10-05 22:35:14	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0xb4d67c…
10-04 20:26:05	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	No	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0x910564…
10-03 23:55:19	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x5e9ea5…
10-03 10:28:02	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x8c8caa…
10-03 09:01:27	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	92¢	$32	0x5e65df…
10-01 16:43:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x679139…
09-29 14:41:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0x95d3e6…
09-28 21:42:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0xc9e8b4…
09-28 15:03:11	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	SELL	56	23¢	$13	0x5a02d3…
09-28 13:30:35	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	56	33¢	$18	0x227f72…
09-28 08:46:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	25	78¢	$19	0x217a9f…
09-28 08:43:32	trump renames ai by september 30	No	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0xe028f8…
09-23 20:33:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0xca5d23…
09-23 14:10:11	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0x04e938…
09-22 09:18:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0x7f9082…
09-21 20:51:33	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	80¢	$17	0xcdaa0c…
09-21 13:09:08	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0x2a1c60…
09-21 09:08:27	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0x6db30c…
09-21 08:46:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x779538…
09-21 02:39:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	24	81¢	$20	0xaec144…
09-20 18:08:19	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	26	92¢	$24	0x008e9a…
09-18 14:15:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	16	45¢	$7	0xd67082…
09-17 07:15:31	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0x891ca0…
09-16 18:03:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x4868f2…
09-16 15:23:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x3bbe35…
09-15 18:38:58	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$12	0x32649c…
09-14 22:02:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0xa15362…
09-14 20:55:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xc3efd2…
09-13 10:22:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	92¢	$24	0x13040d…
09-11 13:50:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x1b2984…
09-10 00:23:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x159163…
09-09 12:10:07	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	13	57¢	$7	0x07aede…
09-09 04:44:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xe38396…
09-09 00:56:43	laptop fdv above 500m one day after launch	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x03d420…
09-06 22:40:01	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0xea8222…
09-06 18:18:13	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	22	93¢	$21	0x9e5216…
09-06 16:37:51	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0x07131f…
09-05 22:34:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xbeccfd…
09-05 04:18:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x317507…
09-04 21:51:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x0a1dc5…
09-03 01:34:13	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	24	70¢	$17	0x42e74e…
08-30 04:01:37	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0xeb2a78…
08-29 03:26:06	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0x9ad09f…
08-28 21:41:31	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?	No	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0x499844…
08-28 21:41:31	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?	No	SELL	13	51¢	$7	0x14852f…
08-28 21:10:48	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x363630…
08-28 14:07:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	46	64¢	$29	0x8e808a…
08-27 19:32:43	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	SELL	17	92¢	$15	0x9f898a…
08-27 03:23:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0xc37c08…
08-27 01:34:13	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	24	73¢	$17	0x7410f3…
08-27 01:34:01	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xe29b51…
08-24 21:04:03	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	23	71¢	$17	0x970d44…
08-20 16:55:21	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	12	57¢	$7	0x9d606a…
08-20 16:36:24	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xdcf10f…
08-19 18:27:46	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	13	75¢	$10	0x699ef5…
08-18 15:10:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	25	92¢	$23	0x3c4f15…
08-17 21:03:31	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	23	74¢	$17	0xc6bbf4…
08-17 17:18:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x80ed77…
08-14 10:39:10	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	25	69¢	$17	0x23078c…
08-14 10:39:10	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	21	92¢	$20	0x0b5748…
08-11 17:40:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x1501ee…
08-11 02:37:52	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x92ed3c…
08-10 14:05:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	14	71¢	$10	0x2c25f5…
08-10 12:02:45	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0xa10ed8…
08-10 08:07:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	No	SELL	13	58¢	$7	0xa41cd3…
08-10 06:35:12	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x23701a…
08-08 20:31:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	19	92¢	$18	0x2d8c22…
08-07 14:10:42	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xa60fc4…
08-07 08:03:49	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x079b36…
08-06 19:21:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xccea7d…
08-06 15:18:03	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x7b4145…
08-06 09:49:35	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	25	74¢	$18	0xe87ca0…
08-06 04:19:20	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	11	86¢	$10	0xd8fe1a…
08-05 13:07:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x1b32b6…
08-05 00:33:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	12	69¢	$9	0x65b9c0…
08-04 21:32:26	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$11	0x77f7f4…
08-04 07:06:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	SELL	11	66¢	$7	0xfd0a68…
08-04 03:56:12	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xfa284d…
08-04 01:41:41	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xe364a8…
08-02 03:14:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	90¢	$17	0xb64fa1…
07-31 14:59:30	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	92¢	$11	0x63055c…
07-31 04:40:05	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0xbe61c3…
07-31 04:09:17	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xbf4348…
07-31 04:03:14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x823298…
07-30 21:21:26	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	15	46¢	$7	0x811299…