Glossy-Gemsbok — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$46

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

59.8%

Resolved

104

Trades

232

lifetime

Volume

$1.08K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$19

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 11-03 08:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

38% 43% -$28

Politics

32% 62% +$47

Tech

30% 60% +$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes		+80	$30	22¢	$18	-$12	11-03 08:24
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes		-57	-$8	2¢	$-1	+$7	09-16 01:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	6	$140	116	116	+0	Yes	+$22	03-07 03:27
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$113	0	125	-125	Yes	-$13	06-09 09:56
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	4	$85	59	59	+0	Yes	+$25	03-21 10:45
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	2	$61	54	54	+0	Yes	+$21	03-09 04:01
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	3	$56	37	37	+0	Yes	+$16	02-28 07:27
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	2	$55	39	39	+0	Yes	+$15	04-15 15:43
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$45	33	33	+0	No	+$5	03-15 16:32
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	4	$42	54	54	+0	No	-$8	03-27 02:12
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$40	33	33	+0	Yes	$0	03-26 09:28
will the dhs shutdown last 60 days or more 988 872 151 791 415 422	3	$34	24	24	+0	Yes	-$6	03-17 16:35
will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	3	$34	108	108	+0	Yes	-$6	03-14 09:38
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	2	$30	80	0	+80	open	—	11-03 08:24
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$26	21	21	+0	Yes	+$6	02-28 16:38
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	3	$23	131	181	-50	No	-$7	02-23 16:29
will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663	2	$22	15	15	+0	Yes	+$2	02-27 19:15
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$20	59	59	+0	No	-$10	03-27 02:11
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	2	$20	33	33	+0	Yes	+$0	03-14 08:48
will iran strike israel on march 6	3	$20	128	128	+0	No	-$2	03-09 20:10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$18	40	40	+0	No	-$2	04-01 17:15
will the us tariff rate on china be between 5 and 15 on march 31	2	$18	18	18	+0	Yes	+$2	03-11 16:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$12	8	8	+0	Yes	+$2	09-11 16:54
highest temperature in wuhan on march 29 2026 22c	4	$9	26	4	+23	No	-$7	03-28 22:14
highest temperature in wuhan on march 29 2026 23c	3	$9	22	3	+19	No	-$7	03-28 22:13
US recession by end of 2026?	1	$8	0	57	-57	open	—	09-16 01:30
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	2	$7	20	20	+0	open	—	05-11 09:49
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17?	2	$5	5	5	+0	No	+$2	05-15 22:29
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$5	10	0	+10	Yes	+$5	02-19 06:26
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	3	$4	6	6	+0	No	+$3	04-09 05:10
Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	2	$4	9	9	+0	No	$0	10-11 06:58
highest temperature in atlanta on april 21 2026 78 79f	3	$3	8	8	+0	Yes	+$1	04-19 07:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 08:24:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x08bb39…
10-15 14:04:46	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x165ce2…
10-11 06:58:20	Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	20¢	$2	0xb05308…
10-07 06:58:18	Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x78fce6…
10-07 04:01:42	Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xe0b616…
09-16 01:30:16	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	14¢	$8	0x799beb…
09-11 16:54:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	81¢	$7	0x2540b3…
09-11 09:28:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x57c1a7…
06-09 09:56:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	90¢	$113	0x376cea…
05-15 22:29:45	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xdad799…
05-15 19:47:46	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xdd14fa…
05-15 11:59:01	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 17?	Yes	SELL	2	23¢	$0	0xa89a6e…
05-15 09:21:12	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 17?	Yes	BUY	63	2¢	$1	0x67c9d7…
05-15 05:32:08	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0xe85324…
05-15 05:07:06	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 17?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x631fad…
05-14 04:36:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?	Yes	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0xf2aac5…
05-13 20:43:26	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x293ccc…
05-13 20:41:43	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x30174f…
05-13 19:40:49	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x238f64…
05-13 14:42:16	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x505682…
05-13 09:27:44	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 15?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x5d0481…
05-13 08:46:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xaaccb5…
05-13 08:22:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x29153c…
05-13 07:52:13	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xb7a212…
05-13 05:30:12	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe8bd26…
05-13 03:14:57	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0x6c7f26…
05-12 22:35:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 14?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x135d81…
05-12 22:35:18	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x9e2677…
05-12 11:36:38	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 14?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x9e19df…
05-12 10:27:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xec3f07…
05-12 10:07:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xdf0497…
05-12 08:09:29	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0xf44deb…
05-12 07:24:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xc0f9de…
05-12 07:24:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xfcc689…
05-12 07:24:08	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xdab247…
05-12 06:47:32	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x87c388…
05-12 06:39:50	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xb1a346…
05-12 06:33:32	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x712b80…
05-12 05:45:45	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C or higher on May 14?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x60fd14…
05-12 05:20:54	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C or higher on May 14?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x14b5b0…
05-12 04:57:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x5d1b48…
05-12 04:57:05	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf2a41a…
05-12 04:36:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x4aecc1…
05-11 09:49:26	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x435a12…
05-08 14:27:38	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xff82d2…
05-08 09:39:28	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xd22bbf…
05-08 03:13:52	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 9?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xbd1b99…
05-08 03:13:43	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x6fefc9…
05-08 01:29:28	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xa63a91…
05-07 15:26:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0xbb38ea…
05-07 15:26:38	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x2a93f2…
05-05 14:10:08	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x976312…
04-25 11:43:46	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 26?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x3a38c4…
04-25 11:02:20	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x726395…
04-25 00:56:18	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xc9b230…
04-22 19:16:32	highest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 68 69f	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xe3a24b…
04-22 13:22:44	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x87acb1…
04-21 20:29:30	highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 62 63f	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x504c77…
04-21 20:29:02	highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 60 61f	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x7dd72a…
04-21 05:49:18	highest temperature in san francisco on april 23 2026 66forhigher	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x3d9bb0…
04-21 05:42:24	highest temperature in seattle on april 23 2026 64 65f	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x998f54…
04-21 05:19:52	highest temperature in seattle on april 23 2026 64 65f	Yes	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x4c2d8a…
04-21 05:02:24	highest temperature in san francisco on april 23 2026 66forhigher	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x19fd30…
04-21 05:00:16	highest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 66 67f	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xeb479c…
04-21 01:09:40	highest temperature in singapore on april 21 2026 30c	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x587af9…
04-20 17:33:16	highest temperature in munich on april 21 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xceac62…
04-19 21:30:00	highest temperature in munich on april 21 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x5dbc9a…
04-19 20:55:24	highest temperature in munich on april 21 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0xcdab11…
04-19 19:10:44	highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 60 61f	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x5bf98e…
04-19 13:40:34	highest temperature in munich on april 21 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x70e744…
04-19 13:37:48	highest temperature in munich on april 21 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0x912ac6…
04-19 11:20:40	highest temperature in milan on april 20 2026 21corhigher	No	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xcd22fc…
04-19 07:26:50	highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 62 63f	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x747301…
04-19 07:09:16	highest temperature in atlanta on april 21 2026 78 79f	Yes	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0xaa21b1…
04-19 06:35:28	highest temperature in singapore on april 21 2026 30c	Yes	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0xfd76e6…
04-19 06:10:32	highest temperature in singapore on april 21 2026 30c	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x1eb8bc…
04-19 05:16:42	highest temperature in los angeles on april 21 2026 64 65f	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x1d8e20…
04-19 05:01:06	highest temperature in atlanta on april 21 2026 78 79f	Yes	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0xeb7419…
04-19 05:00:44	highest temperature in atlanta on april 21 2026 78 79f	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xa11718…
04-19 02:27:00	highest temperature in singapore on april 19 2026 33c	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x942829…
04-18 18:27:10	highest temperature in nyc on april 19 2026 50 51f	Yes	SELL	29	7¢	$2	0x79e788…
04-18 16:39:08	highest temperature in milan on april 20 2026 21corhigher	No	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0xf21114…
04-18 16:38:38	highest temperature in milan on april 20 2026 21corhigher	No	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x82eacd…
04-18 12:48:38	highest temperature in nyc on april 19 2026 58 59f	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x6dd6ed…
04-18 12:46:44	highest temperature in nyc on april 19 2026 50 51f	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0xa2a699…
04-17 09:51:08	highest temperature in nyc on april 19 2026 58 59f	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x87ed46…
04-17 06:59:48	highest temperature in singapore on april 19 2026 33c	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0xb0a218…
04-17 03:00:56	highest temperature in singapore on april 17 2026 32c	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x693cd5…
04-17 00:20:36	highest temperature in london on april 18 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x7f99e5…
04-17 00:20:30	highest temperature in london on april 18 2026 17c	Yes	SELL	4	37¢	$1	0xfd63c2…
04-17 00:20:20	highest temperature in austin on april 18 2026 76 77f	Yes	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0x0a6560…
04-17 00:20:14	highest temperature in austin on april 18 2026 78 79f	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$1	0x5070c9…
04-16 16:57:42	highest temperature in san francisco on april 18 2026 64 65f	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x2bd614…
04-16 16:57:30	highest temperature in singapore on april 18 2026 31c	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xf215d5…
04-16 08:06:58	highest temperature in paris on april 18 2026 17c	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa5fe1f…
04-16 08:06:46	highest temperature in paris on april 18 2026 16c	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x58351a…
04-16 06:54:50	highest temperature in san francisco on april 18 2026 64 65f	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x7c3a35…
04-16 05:53:28	highest temperature in austin on april 18 2026 88forhigher	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0xf9445d…
04-16 05:50:20	highest temperature in austin on april 18 2026 88forhigher	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x582233…
04-16 05:43:44	highest temperature in austin on april 18 2026 78 79f	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0xf6f1e5…