Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$66.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.97K

Hit rate

84.7%

Resolved

Trades

281

lifetime

Volume

$238.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$847

Open exposure

$878

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 11-07 05:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Politics

92% 62% +$74,429

Other

7% 14% -$5,586

Tech

2% 0% -$3,133

Sports

0% 100% +$1,157

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+2,500	$850	12¢	$312	-$537	05-15 19:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+4,000	$1,000	8¢	$300	-$700	05-06 07:22
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+2,416	$500	10¢	$229	-$271	11-07 05:30
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+572	$300	3¢	$19	-$281	06-08 08:12
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+867	$200	2¢	$17	-$183	06-08 08:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$59.0K	52,201	52,201	+0	Yes	+$43,951	02-28 07:25
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	8	$53.2K	65,241	33,644	+31,597	Yes	+$10,121	03-07 02:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$13.3K	8,807	8,807	+0	No	+$2,715	03-28 12:56
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	3	$11.7K	8,717	8,717	+0	Yes	+$5,480	02-28 07:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	13	$9.1K	40,667	5,833	+34,833	Yes	-$3,253	04-05 03:28
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$7.9K	12,094	12,094	+0	Yes	+$253	03-12 00:15
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	2	$7.0K	9,437	0	+9,437	Yes	+$2,437	03-08 05:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	9	$6.9K	5,818	5,818	+0	No	+$4,128	04-22 09:17
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	3	$6.3K	3,394	3,394	+0	No	+$349	04-22 04:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	19	$5.8K	14,211	14,211	+0	Yes	-$158	04-19 20:02
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	8	$5.2K	3,685	3,685	+0	No	+$1,163	04-23 21:38
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$4.8K	7,366	7,366	+0	No	+$790	03-12 00:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$4.6K	3,742	3,742	+0	No	+$2,614	04-21 22:25
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$3.8K	5,229	0	+5,229	Yes	+$1,395	03-08 10:02
gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	16	$3.4K	20,096	729	+19,367	Yes	-$2,745	04-23 11:33
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$3.3K	2,597	2,597	+0	Yes	+$1,895	06-08 03:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	66	$2.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$921	04-23 21:44
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	2	$2.6K	1,623	1,623	+0	No	+$574	04-21 15:11
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	2	$2.2K	1,905	1,905	+0	Yes	+$1,603	06-08 03:37
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$1.9K	8,438	8,438	+0	No	-$1,735	04-27 15:12
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	26	$1.8K	15,854	5,407	+10,447	No	-$197	04-22 03:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$1.7K	26,685	0	+26,685	Yes	-$1,720	04-23 23:00
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	2	$1.6K	2,832	2,832	+0	No	-$390	03-29 04:52
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	1	$1.5K	4,157	0	+4,157	Yes	-$1,522	04-08 13:02
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	1	$1.2K	3,925	0	+3,925	Yes	+$2,725	03-08 05:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$1.1K	2,272	1,022	+1,250	Yes	-$89	06-15 00:09
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	1	$1.0K	2,018	0	+2,018	Yes	-$1,000	05-05 03:47
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 11 887	1	$1000	1,658	0	+1,658	Yes	+$658	03-08 05:20
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	1	$1000	14,286	0	+14,286	No	-$1,000	02-22 00:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	26	$1000	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	05-06 07:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 05:30:52	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,416	21¢	$500	0x0c0565…
07-20 22:13:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	4,038	17¢	$700	0xd825ba…
07-20 22:13:09	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,284	8¢	$100	0xce98b4…
07-19 22:28:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x7c896a…
06-15 00:09:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x913148…
06-14 05:32:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,022	50¢	$511	0x49862e…
06-13 14:23:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,022	49¢	$500	0x30a33a…
06-13 12:22:46	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,190	17¢	$200	0x3abe1b…
06-13 12:19:21	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x9a254c…
06-13 12:18:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,053	41¢	$436	0x708b40…
06-13 12:00:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xda99d2…
06-13 12:00:03	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	922	41¢	$382	0x2c204b…
06-13 11:56:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xd663c7…
06-08 08:12:39	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	572	52¢	$300	0x0849d2…
06-08 08:11:28	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,559	12¢	$300	0x497c13…
06-08 08:10:16	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	867	23¢	$200	0x92ec0f…
06-08 08:08:51	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,345	7¢	$100	0x1a7934…
06-08 03:37:10	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	1,905	100¢	$1,903	0x33c6e1…
06-08 03:32:58	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,597	100¢	$2,595	0xe4cff9…
06-03 01:45:41	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1,905	16¢	$300	0xc2ba84…
06-03 01:44:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,074	28¢	$300	0xaf3cfb…
06-02 02:25:11	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,888	16¢	$300	0x102215…
06-02 02:24:31	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4,026	12¢	$500	0x44d45d…
05-31 09:48:33	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,524	26¢	$400	0xc65354…
05-26 01:33:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1,516	59¢	$900	0xfc1e34…
05-15 19:27:17	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	902	34¢	$307	0xaf01a1…
05-15 14:54:28	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	34¢	$9	0x9dbc92…
05-15 14:28:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	41	34¢	$14	0x77a62a…
05-14 11:31:39	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,524	34¢	$518	0x1b6fb4…
05-13 08:17:56	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xd35174…
05-06 07:22:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,183	25¢	$296	0x60a0ca…
05-06 07:10:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,333	25¢	$333	0xc2cdfb…
05-06 07:10:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	118	25¢	$29	0xb65ad1…
05-06 07:06:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xda5377…
05-06 07:00:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	25¢	$12	0x5d2931…
05-06 06:53:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x23d7f1…
05-06 06:42:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xf48176…
05-06 06:40:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	25¢	$5	0xaa2a67…
05-06 06:38:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x3b838c…
05-06 06:37:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xb33ddb…
05-06 06:36:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x8c28ab…
05-06 06:36:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x02ce76…
05-06 06:27:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	25¢	$12	0x76c86d…
05-06 06:20:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0x442c9e…
05-06 06:19:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x696edc…
05-06 06:16:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x187866…
05-06 06:12:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x043197…
05-06 05:59:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x2d6298…
05-06 05:59:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	71	25¢	$18	0xcef46b…
05-06 05:56:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	104	25¢	$26	0x349d73…
05-06 05:55:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0xacde67…
05-06 05:55:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0x769ece…
05-06 05:54:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0x8466b4…
05-06 05:52:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x273229…
05-06 05:52:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	323	25¢	$81	0x3dd8e4…
05-06 05:51:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xaf884a…
05-05 03:47:12	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	2,018	50¢	$1,000	0xd48654…
05-04 13:50:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,125	80¢	$900	0xf88eac…
04-27 15:12:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	8,438	1¢	$69	0x2e7695…
04-27 12:24:50	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5,500	17¢	$940	0xeb9c28…
04-23 23:00:18	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	20,000	0¢	$20	0x86af9c…
04-23 21:44:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	4,000	48¢	$1,920	0x765376…
04-23 21:38:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	1,084	100¢	$1,082	0x073164…
04-23 11:33:44	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	SELL	729	48¢	$350	0x2694e5…
04-23 02:07:32	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	2,000	10¢	$197	0x99dd4b…
04-22 17:25:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,244	25¢	$311	0xf40383…
04-22 16:15:40	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,801	9¢	$162	0xc29178…
04-22 16:00:36	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x55770f…
04-22 15:57:18	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x611394…
04-22 15:56:56	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	400	9¢	$36	0x612b27…
04-22 15:56:18	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	5,000	15¢	$750	0x1b8dea…
04-22 15:52:46	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	697	9¢	$61	0xc5973a…
04-22 15:50:06	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x2e0058…
04-22 15:49:50	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	183	7¢	$14	0xeb20fe…
04-22 15:47:18	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	348	6¢	$22	0x0f7330…
04-22 15:32:42	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,006	4¢	$84	0x68db17…
04-22 15:30:12	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	516	18¢	$93	0xce5b42…
04-22 15:29:10	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0x4d864f…
04-22 15:27:02	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	3,200	13¢	$416	0x14df64…
04-22 15:17:46	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	5,126	19¢	$964	0x5d12de…
04-22 15:17:42	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	1,874	17¢	$326	0x44c142…
04-22 15:17:02	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x0a07de…
04-22 15:14:00	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	157	16¢	$25	0xe425ff…
04-22 15:13:12	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xc9ce4d…
04-22 15:13:04	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	1,321	15¢	$195	0x7199f6…
04-22 15:13:04	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	16	15¢	$2	0x053e61…
04-22 15:12:28	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	267	14¢	$38	0x1aa72f…
04-22 15:12:24	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x0504be…
04-22 15:10:56	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	393	14¢	$55	0xc21855…
04-22 15:08:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xb1e170…
04-22 14:57:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x77bffb…
04-22 14:57:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xb7517d…
04-22 14:55:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x61b8e2…
04-22 14:54:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0xdb9b99…
04-22 14:51:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x7c985c…
04-22 14:44:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	59	25¢	$15	0x6410ac…
04-22 14:39:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x967b15…
04-22 14:39:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	107	25¢	$27	0x2852b0…
04-22 14:28:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	133	25¢	$33	0xd596e2…
04-22 14:25:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	67	25¢	$17	0xf07fb0…