Sharp-Astrakhan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.60K

Unrealized P&L

+$332

Hit rate

94.3%

Resolved

279

Trades

498

lifetime

Volume

$204.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$411

Open exposure

$14.3K

20 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 10-29 00:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 83 days

Categories

Other

60% 72% +$3,698

Politics

36% 90% +$2,171

Crypto

3% 52% -$333

Tech

1% 100% +$40

Sports

0% 100% +$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	No	+7,629	$7,030	98¢	$7.5K	+$446	10-26 09:04
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	+3,216	$3,000	99¢	$3.2K	+$180	10-19 00:02
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	+1,202	$1,000	86¢	$1.0K	+$33	10-16 19:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+1,323	$820	57¢	$760	-$60	10-13 23:49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+1,532	$674	44¢	$682	+$8	10-28 00:12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	+581	$250	38¢	$224	-$26	10-16 19:33
military action against saudi oil pipeline east west by october 31	No	+172	$100	87¢	$150	+$50	10-14 18:13
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+122	$100	99¢	$121	+$21	09-21 18:38
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No	+143	$100	84¢	$121	+$21	05-31 20:48
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+111	$24	97¢	$108	+$84	06-09 21:06
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+781	$500	14¢	$105	-$395	10-16 19:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	+101	$100	100¢	$101	+$1	10-11 00:03
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+102	$100	96¢	$99	-$1	10-16 19:30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+278	$100	28¢	$76	-$24	10-13 23:48
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	+45	$35	95¢	$43	+$8	10-15 05:57
New pandemic in 2026?	No	+11	$10	96¢	$11	+$1	06-03 00:09
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+11	$10	98¢	$11	+$1	06-03 00:08
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	+11	$10	97¢	$10	+$0	06-03 00:08
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	+32	$20	10¢	$3	-$17	06-03 00:15
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+87	$2	2¢	$2	+$0	10-29 00:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$14.4K	7,527	7,527	+0	No	+$406	05-26 21:17
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	1	$14.2K	14,724	0	+14,724	No	+$474	07-24 01:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	6	$14.1K	11,327	4,078	+7,249	No	+$1,310	04-29 20:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	3	$8.9K	4,565	4,565	+0	Yes	+$164	10-26 09:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	4	$7.4K	7,801	0	+7,801	No	+$411	06-11 11:38
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	6	$7.3K	4,240	3,646	+594	No	+$351	05-01 21:05
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	3	$7.0K	7,629	0	+7,629	open	—	10-26 09:04
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	8	$5.4K	5,639	0	+5,639	No	+$237	03-14 20:05
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$5.0K	5,270	0	+5,270	No	+$270	04-10 16:02
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	4	$4.9K	2,630	2,630	+0	No	+$178	03-09 15:36
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 22	3	$4.6K	2,390	2,390	+0	Yes	+$181	10-24 19:56
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	3	$4.2K	3,225	1,922	+1,304	open	—	10-13 11:28
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	5	$4.0K	2,054	2,054	+0	No	+$11	03-14 20:00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$3.9K	2,009	2,009	+0	No	+$107	05-31 20:35
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	3	$3.1K	1,573	1,573	+0	No	+$59	06-11 20:39
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	1	$3.0K	3,191	0	+3,191	No	+$191	05-26 21:18
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	2	$3.0K	3,216	0	+3,216	open	—	10-19 00:02
us evacuates beirut embassy by march 31	5	$2.4K	1,295	1,295	+0	No	+$159	03-26 22:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.3K	1,266	1,266	+0	No	+$263	05-31 20:37
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	2	$2.3K	1,370	1,274	+96	No	+$347	03-29 14:46
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	1	$2.2K	2,230	0	+2,230	Yes	+$71	10-15 20:06
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	2	$2.1K	1,095	1,095	+0	Yes	+$94	05-12 15:50
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	2	$2.1K	1,088	1,088	+0	open	—	10-27 14:53
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$2.1K	1,503	1,503	+0	Yes	-$188	03-10 09:25
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	2	$2.1K	1,053	1,053	+0	No	+$51	03-11 08:29
internet access restored in iran by march 7 2026	2	$2.0K	1,064	1,064	+0	No	+$48	03-05 17:23
us evacuates jerusalem embassy by march 31	3	$2.0K	1,060	1,060	+0	No	+$43	03-26 22:20
will france strike iran by march 31	4	$2.0K	1,041	1,030	+10	No	+$23	03-27 18:55
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$2.0K	1,019	1,019	+0	Yes	+$18	05-12 15:50
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,019	1,019	+0	No	+$8	06-11 20:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 00:17:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x94e2c2…
10-29 00:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xd05ccb…
10-29 00:08:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	43	40¢	$17	0x2e4678…
10-29 00:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x7225e7…
10-29 00:06:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	64	80¢	$51	0x142f5b…
10-29 00:05:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x65532c…
10-28 23:55:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x39c2d4…
10-28 23:55:04	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xffbff5…
10-28 23:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x70b826…
10-28 23:50:37	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x5b1b84…
10-28 23:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0x4331f8…
10-28 23:47:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xd861bf…
10-28 23:46:31	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x68e299…
10-28 23:46:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x442660…
10-28 23:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xd9a79a…
10-28 23:44:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x87103b…
10-28 23:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x04da36…
10-28 23:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1947ca…
10-28 23:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	59	93¢	$55	0x11a548…
10-28 23:41:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x1a102f…
10-28 23:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x27e058…
10-28 23:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6e1401…
10-28 23:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x8030f4…
10-28 23:27:07	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9314ef…
10-28 23:26:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x667c85…
10-28 23:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x2f3074…
10-28 23:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0xc093e2…
10-28 23:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xee5d87…
10-28 23:16:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xafada7…
10-28 23:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xa87bf2…
10-28 23:11:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xfedea0…
10-28 23:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xf27d96…
10-28 23:09:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2eb98d…
10-28 23:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	16	7¢	$1	0x329404…
10-28 23:05:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x7e19e5…
10-28 23:03:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	126	6¢	$8	0xbeeab9…
10-28 23:02:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x57efd1…
10-28 23:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x5252fa…
10-28 22:58:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xca9ca4…
10-28 22:55:53	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	416	23¢	$95	0xa7c6f1…
10-28 00:12:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,532	44¢	$674	0x31d4dd…
10-28 00:11:44	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,683	40¢	$674	0x9da069…
10-27 17:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	42	13¢	$6	0x156b25…
10-27 17:15:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xbfa6e8…
10-27 14:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x700b2d…
10-27 14:54:32	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,683	65¢	$1,090	0x920815…
10-27 14:53:38	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,088	99¢	$1,083	0x42a618…
10-27 14:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xffed74…
10-26 09:04:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,768	95¢	$4,530	0xe6face…
10-26 09:04:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	4,565	99¢	$4,535	0x9b420e…
10-26 01:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	30	59¢	$17	0xd9add7…
10-26 01:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x658968…
10-26 01:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	48	43¢	$20	0xc88c5d…
10-26 01:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x5faa7b…
10-26 01:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	14	82¢	$11	0x452763…
10-26 01:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0x6c482d…
10-26 01:37:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xedb764…
10-26 01:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1c3f97…
10-24 19:56:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	2,391	99¢	$2,371	0xb4c843…
10-24 19:56:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	2,390	99¢	$2,371	0xa2c866…
10-22 20:59:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	192	99¢	$190	0xd637cc…
10-20 23:55:03	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	136	37¢	$50	0xcfcd2e…
10-20 23:54:35	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x782a8a…
10-20 23:54:21	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,146,000 and $1,165,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	112	1¢	$1	0x29ef44…
10-20 23:53:39	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	194	15¢	$30	0xbbbf85…
10-20 23:52:15	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0x90a01b…
10-20 23:48:41	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x512605…
10-20 23:42:47	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	386	91¢	$350	0x5aa87e…
10-20 23:40:14	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	417	86¢	$360	0x3e6ed1…
10-19 13:22:45	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	983	92¢	$900	0x6c44d8…
10-19 13:22:00	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x3aa3f3…
10-19 00:02:15	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	BUY	1,042	96¢	$1,000	0x386d92…
10-18 12:51:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	2,174	92¢	$2,000	0xce749e…
10-17 21:41:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	26	5¢	$1	0xf0cf95…
10-17 21:39:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x8ad8ec…
10-17 21:35:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xdfc2b1…
10-17 21:35:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:35 UTC	Down	BUY	111	36¢	$40	0xfa0ae9…
10-17 21:31:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:30 UTC	Down	SELL	255	57¢	$145	0x79ed64…
10-17 21:30:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xf4a5a6…
10-17 21:28:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xcce2b7…
10-17 21:27:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:25 UTC	Up	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0xcdd3ae…
10-17 21:26:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:25 UTC	Down	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0x5ae1f5…
10-17 21:20:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:25 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xb84eac…
10-17 21:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe43b88…
10-17 10:48:03	Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	377	66¢	$250	0x0eae00…
10-17 10:40:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 17?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xb8b54f…
10-17 10:31:06	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	No	BUY	576	87¢	$500	0x020620…
10-16 19:35:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	2,147	93¢	$2,000	0xffa12c…
10-16 19:33:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	581	43¢	$250	0xf47665…
10-16 19:31:08	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	BUY	1,202	83¢	$1,000	0xa13e09…
10-16 19:30:26	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x984e7a…
10-16 19:28:01	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	416	60¢	$250	0x0978fb…
10-16 19:26:31	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	781	64¢	$500	0x48fb55…
10-15 20:06:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	Yes	BUY	2,230	97¢	$2,159	0xc23cf1…
10-15 05:57:56	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x263f57…
10-14 18:13:33	military action against saudi oil pipeline east west by october 31	No	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x39cda7…
10-14 18:07:51	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 22	Yes	BUY	2,198	91¢	$2,000	0x9e7373…
10-14 15:59:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	No	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0xf6925a…
10-13 23:59:07	Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x2c59aa…
10-13 23:49:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	1,323	62¢	$820	0xa4e5fe…