Gracious-Cayenne — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$468

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

67.3%

Resolved

722

Trades

5,044

lifetime

Volume

$31.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 06-17 20:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Other

71% 51% +$314

Tech

16% 51% +$145

Crypto

7% 42% -$17

Politics

4% 46% +$14

Sports

2% 24% +$10

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-17).

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+0	-$4	92¢	$0	+$4	06-13 00:23
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	No	+0	$0	1¢	$0	$0	06-08 05:01
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	+0	-$7	5¢	$0	+$7	06-12 15:12
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	+0	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	06-10 12:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	44	$288	402	402	+0	Yes	+$31	06-03 22:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	40	$285	379	379	+0	No	+$4	05-30 00:10
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	39	$266	425	425	+0	No	+$22	06-11 05:06
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	31	$252	284	284	+0	No	+$9	06-11 06:21
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?	41	$246	251	251	+0	Yes	+$40	06-08 15:11
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	47	$242	258	258	+0	No	+$8	06-11 07:44
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?	34	$216	381	381	+0	No	+$24	06-11 08:19
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	29	$199	260	260	+0	Yes	+$12	06-09 20:40
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	32	$195	2,294	294	+2,000	Yes	+$25	05-29 23:07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	26	$195	227	227	+0	Yes	+$14	06-11 07:44
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?	27	$184	362	162	+200	Yes	+$1	06-10 16:56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	22	$182	240	240	-0	Yes	+$10	06-10 17:59
will openais valuation hit high 875b by june 30	16	$179	208	208	+0	Yes	+$39	06-05 21:08
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	27	$174	192	192	+0	No	-$2	06-11 00:56
will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	25	$170	196	196	-0	open	—	06-11 03:10
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	48	$168	199	199	+0	No	+$15	06-04 06:33
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?	19	$145	182	182	+0	open	—	06-11 06:29
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?	13	$140	335	135	+200	Yes	+$37	05-13 14:31
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?	15	$140	263	263	+0	Yes	+$28	06-05 22:07
will xauusd reach 4700 in june 2026	18	$139	169	169	+0	No	+$8	06-05 05:55
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	17	$137	174	174	+0	Yes	+$3	06-10 23:01
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	16	$135	156	156	+0	open	—	06-10 07:26
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	19	$133	209	209	+0	No	+$8	06-10 15:57
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	10	$133	174	174	+0	Yes	+$44	05-28 07:45
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	17	$130	206	206	+0	No	+$15	06-11 07:44
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	17	$129	154	154	+0	Yes	+$28	05-29 14:24
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	23	$128	248	115	+133	Yes	+$8	06-10 22:32
will xauusd dip to 4200 in june 2026	20	$128	152	152	+0	Yes	+$16	06-10 00:06
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	21	$128	196	196	+0	No	+$23	05-14 19:15
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	22	$126	358	358	+0	Yes	+$34	06-11 15:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 20:22:44	Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	191	0¢	$0	0x4dc2cd…
06-17 16:19:46	Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	SELL	77	0¢	$0	0x8a0fa5…
06-16 20:43:52	la mayoral election spencer pratt receives overunder 25 20260607185950806	Under	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0xf8198e…
06-16 20:43:52	Will Semir Efendić be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	Yes	SELL	57	0¢	$0	0xf686d3…
06-16 20:43:47	Will Mistral have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x72d181…
06-16 20:43:46	Will Amazon have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	0¢	$0	0xe944f9…
06-16 20:43:44	will cap launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	133	0¢	$0	0xdbd206…
06-16 20:43:44	Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	188	0¢	$0	0xb6e299…
06-16 20:43:43	will tabi launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	148	0¢	$1	0x8299a2…
06-16 20:43:43	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	1¢	$1	0x62e012…
06-16 20:43:41	will papertrade launch a token by september 30 2027	No	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x5b38bc…
06-16 20:43:40	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xe39a34…
06-16 20:43:40	Will Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xd2f2df…
06-16 20:43:38	Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xd00bd1…
06-16 20:43:37	Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xbe1ccf…
06-16 20:43:37	Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xb1ea2f…
06-16 20:43:35	Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?	Yes	SELL	17	23¢	$4	0xbf7930…
06-16 20:43:35	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x9d41c4…
06-16 20:43:34	Ledger IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	54	9¢	$5	0xc16861…
06-16 20:43:32	will epic games valuation hit high 14b by june 30	Yes	SELL	52	3¢	$1	0xe34857…
06-16 20:43:31	will krakens valuation hit low 9b by december 31	No	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0x0fdb97…
06-16 20:43:29	Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?	No	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0xb1e18e…
06-16 20:43:29	Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	32	22¢	$7	0x7aa599…
06-16 20:43:28	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	12¢	$8	0xb2fcfd…
06-16 20:43:26	Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 80% and 82.5%?	Yes	SELL	110	7¢	$7	0xc7416b…
06-16 20:43:26	Will Cleveland Browns win the 2026 AFC North?	Yes	SELL	1,927	1¢	$12	0x7d4805…
06-16 20:23:52	Will Amazon have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x716920…
06-16 20:23:52	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0x0cc963…
06-16 20:23:50	Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x6afd23…
06-16 19:37:35	Will Amazon have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x5f2045…
06-16 14:21:26	will ecdsafail get at least 40 ahead of googles classified circuit by june 30 2026	No	SELL	28	0¢	$0	0xe21880…
06-16 12:37:54	Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x4b2cbc…
06-16 12:37:52	Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	135	0¢	$0	0x1412dc…
06-16 12:23:39	Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x188b81…
06-16 12:12:10	Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	192	0¢	$0	0x173915…
06-16 12:12:09	Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	0¢	$0	0xd335a1…
06-16 09:44:15	Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	18	52¢	$9	0xe7a317…
06-16 05:10:40	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x869bfd…
06-15 21:33:31	Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	24¢	$4	0xa79a01…
06-15 21:32:36	Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x118ce3…
06-15 21:32:34	Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	196	0¢	$0	0x8e40b8…
06-15 21:32:34	Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x2156db…
06-15 02:55:16	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	47¢	$3	0x3dbb62…
06-15 01:18:13	Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x14c06a…
06-14 20:46:57	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	5¢	$2	0x39721c…
06-14 20:00:43	will papertrade launch a token by september 30 2027	No	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0x61de9c…
06-14 19:28:15	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	47¢	$3	0x530000…
06-14 16:34:43	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	6¢	$1	0x52fb49…
06-14 16:34:42	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x8af886…
06-14 16:16:40	Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	59¢	$10	0xf4b915…
06-14 15:17:39	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	7¢	$2	0xf1712d…
06-14 14:48:25	Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xbab2fa…
06-14 11:07:57	Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	25¢	$7	0xb74dd6…
06-13 22:01:52	Over $10M committed to the ALIGN public sale?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xabef7e…
06-13 21:19:46	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.20 and $3.50 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	3¢	$2	0x127d49…
06-13 19:22:49	Over $10M committed to the ALIGN public sale?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x8a6cc3…
06-13 19:22:49	Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	58	0¢	$0	0x62c7ab…
06-13 15:23:16	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	2¢	$1	0xa058a6…
06-13 14:41:04	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0x924ca4…
06-13 14:23:39	la mayoral election spencer pratt receives overunder 25 20260607185950806	Under	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xd51eb4…
06-13 13:34:34	SHEIN IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	11	85¢	$10	0xdc2b28…
06-13 10:54:39	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x9dc7bd…
06-13 10:51:40	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x4eeb25…
06-13 07:24:21	Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x75df00…
06-13 07:06:15	Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xca0442…
06-13 07:06:13	Will Baidu have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xde2ad4…
06-13 07:06:10	Will USD/KRW hit 1350 (Low) in 2026?	No	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0x563ba0…
06-13 07:06:10	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x4fa328…
06-13 06:59:55	will russia capture borova by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0xd70f57…
06-13 03:43:19	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	9	66¢	$6	0x2459e8…
06-13 03:08:51	will ecdsafail get at least 40 ahead of googles classified circuit by june 30 2026	No	SELL	54	0¢	$0	0xe6427b…
06-13 02:16:28	Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?	Yes	SELL	19	38¢	$7	0xb519e0…
06-13 02:02:43	Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?	Yes	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0x059c20…
06-13 01:59:55	Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	0¢	$0	0x88ec30…
06-13 00:49:25	Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	SELL	69	2¢	$1	0x5f37c0…
06-13 00:23:07	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x46e3f2…
06-13 00:23:06	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0xf6a149…
06-13 00:23:06	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0xe23fab…
06-13 00:23:06	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0x888709…
06-13 00:23:06	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0x238e5e…
06-12 22:53:52	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0x58e635…
06-12 21:40:22	Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	SELL	43	2¢	$1	0x0c18fd…
06-12 19:05:04	Will USD/KRW hit 1350 (Low) in 2026?	No	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0xb4b0d4…
06-12 18:57:48	Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?	No	SELL	15	85¢	$12	0xa4acd1…
06-12 18:33:25	Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xbcde0e…
06-12 17:17:42	israeli forces enter tyre by june 7	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x718d08…
06-12 17:14:58	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	Yes	SELL	62	0¢	$0	0xb8217b…
06-12 17:01:36	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	141	2¢	$2	0x2b43d9…
06-12 15:12:58	Will Zdenko Lučić be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	Yes	SELL	69	1¢	$1	0x27f5a7…
06-12 15:12:58	will spacex have exactly 11 launches in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x01a830…
06-12 15:12:52	Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0x246122…
06-12 14:46:45	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	18¢	$6	0x5aa12f…
06-12 13:47:13	Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?	Yes	SELL	110	4¢	$5	0xb7c1e1…
06-12 13:10:28	Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	25	17¢	$4	0x6537bc…
06-12 13:10:22	Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	133	9¢	$12	0x00816b…
06-12 12:46:39	israeli forces enter tyre by june 7	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xe853d2…
06-12 12:36:45	israeli forces enter tyre by june 7	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0x732af4…
06-12 12:16:52	will papertrade launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	42	5¢	$2	0x507724…
06-12 11:28:00	Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	15	19¢	$3	0x6ac70b…
06-12 11:13:33	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x2e6cca…