(anonymous) 0x593709…4211da
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Realized P&L
+$34
Unrealized P&L
+$111
Hit rate
43.6%
Resolved
68
Trades
269
lifetime
Volume
$5.35K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$20
Open exposure
$1.91K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-07
last 10-26 20:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 22 days
Categories
Politics
48% 73% +$333
Other
38% 71% +$114
Crypto
9% 0% -$467
Tech
4% 100% +$53
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
28 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Yes +229 $120 63¢ $145 +$25 10-26 10:21
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +192 $130 69¢ $132 +$2 10-26 10:23
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +201 $130 66¢ $132 +$2 10-22 10:32
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +183 $125 68¢ $125 $0 10-26 10:28
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +136 $90 68¢ $93 +$3 10-24 18:34
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +118 $90 78¢ $91 +$1 10-19 09:19
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? No +91 $30 100¢ $91 +$61 10-25 10:46
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +128 $90 67¢ $86 -$4 10-26 10:22
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +139 $90 59¢ $82 -$8 10-26 21:26
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes +101 $70 80¢ $81 +$11 10-23 20:26
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +103 $70 72¢ $74 +$4 10-12 03:14
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +112 $70 62¢ $70 $0 10-12 19:38
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +100 $60 61¢ $61 +$1 10-26 08:52
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes +400 $60 14¢ $56 -$4 10-26 10:13
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +102 $50 48¢ $48 -$2 10-23 04:24
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +54 $20 85¢ $46 +$26 10-16 22:20
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +284 $50 16¢ $45 -$5 10-26 12:54
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes +118 $50 38¢ $45 -$5 10-25 20:16
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes +208 $60 20¢ $43 -$17 10-16 13:49
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +42 $30 94¢ $39 +$9 10-15 21:11
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +60 $40 64¢ $39 -$1 10-16 02:44
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +60 $30 59¢ $35 +$5 10-14 16:09
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +48 $30 70¢ $34 +$4 10-15 18:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Yes +33 $30 100¢ $33 +$3 10-23 22:35
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +38 $30 83¢ $31 +$1 10-15 23:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +31 $30 98¢ $31 +$1 10-21 05:10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +36 $30 85¢ $31 +$1 10-25 02:20
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? No +44 $30 69¢ $30 +$0 10-26 02:29
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No +37 $30 78¢ $29 -$1 10-26 10:23
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Yes +250 $30 12¢ $29 -$1 10-23 23:51