Realized P&L (30d)
+$3.98K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.02K
Hit rate
63.5%
Resolved (30d)
187
Trades (30d)
1,477
5,203 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$124.3K
$435.8K lifetime
Avg / trade
$84
Open exposure
$41.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-04
last 10-30 08:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 82 days
Categories
Other
52% 53% +$7,830
Politics
37% 62% +$6,510
Tech
7% 54% -$955
Sports
3% 37% -$1,474
Crypto
2% 71% +$643
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 256 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -10,000 -$5,862 90¢ $-8950 -$3,088 08-27 00:32
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +5,814 $5,000 94¢ $5.4K +$436 09-10 13:46
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +187,872 $3,080 3¢ $4.8K +$1,711 10-15 10:07
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +2,500 $285 98¢ $2.5K +$2,172 10-20 07:50
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +3,860 $2,855 60¢ $2.3K -$558 10-28 00:00
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +1,500 $780 80¢ $1.2K +$412 10-15 05:25
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? No +1,600 $400 74¢ $1.2K +$776 10-29 17:49
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +1,859 $699 58¢ $1.1K +$389 10-01 19:44
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +1,613 $1,000 66¢ $1.1K +$73 10-20 22:33
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No +1,076 $744 96¢ $1.0K +$291 10-13 16:48
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +1,037 $900 90¢ $939 +$39 09-05 14:02
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +940 $679 92¢ $865 +$186 10-20 14:30
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +1,042 $678 80¢ $828 +$150 10-27 20:36
Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes +1,167 $700 64¢ $752 +$52 10-29 06:06
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871 No +750 $501 95¢ $713 +$212 08-28 03:03
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +1,467 $716 48¢ $700 -$16 10-19 05:26
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No +700 $197 98¢ $684 +$486 10-15 14:03
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat? Yes +1,348 $400 45¢ $607 +$207 10-20 21:43
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +862 $500 67¢ $578 +$78 10-26 21:23
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +806 $500 70¢ $569 +$69 10-09 21:34
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? Yes +877 $500 64¢ $566 +$66 10-16 22:01
US recession by end of 2026? No +602 $500 93¢ $560 +$60 09-16 01:18
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +100,000 $400 1¢ $550 +$150 10-01 06:16
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat? Yes +606 $345 85¢ $515 +$170 08-22 02:28
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes +513 $300 100¢ $512 +$212 08-26 13:33
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +471 $319 99¢ $466 +$147 10-28 00:58
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +536 $424 86¢ $461 +$37 08-09 12:47
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +639 $396 72¢ $457 +$61 10-09 20:11
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +625 $400 69¢ $433 +$33 10-20 00:20
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No +653 $400 62¢ $408 +$8 10-29 02:37