Realized P&L
+$15.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.90K
Hit rate
56.5%
Resolved
509
Trades
5,262
lifetime
Volume
$444.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$84
Open exposure
$41.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-04
last 10-31 14:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 83 days
Categories
Other
51% 54% +$10,079
Politics
38% 62% +$7,175
Tech
6% 54% -$955
Sports
3% 37% -$1,474
Crypto
2% 71% +$643
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 256 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -10,000 -$5,862 88¢ $-8850 -$2,988 08-27 00:32
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +5,814 $5,000 94¢ $5.5K +$494 09-10 13:46
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +187,872 $3,080 2¢ $4.7K +$1,617 10-15 10:07
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +2,500 $285 99¢ $2.5K +$2,200 10-20 07:50
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +3,860 $2,855 57¢ $2.2K -$635 10-28 00:00
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? No +1,600 $400 84¢ $1.4K +$952 10-29 17:49
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +1,500 $780 76¢ $1.1K +$367 10-15 05:25
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +1,613 $1,000 68¢ $1.1K +$105 10-20 22:33
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No +1,076 $744 95¢ $1.0K +$279 10-13 16:48
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +1,859 $699 53¢ $985 +$287 10-01 19:44
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +940 $679 100¢ $935 +$256 10-20 14:30
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +1,042 $678 80¢ $828 +$150 10-27 20:36
Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes +1,167 $700 62¢ $729 +$29 10-29 06:06
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871 No +750 $501 96¢ $716 +$216 08-28 03:03
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No +700 $197 99¢ $691 +$494 10-15 14:03
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +1,467 $716 43¢ $633 -$83 10-19 05:26
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +862 $500 68¢ $591 +$91 10-26 21:23
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat? Yes +1,348 $400 43¢ $580 +$180 10-20 21:43
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +806 $500 72¢ $577 +$77 10-09 21:34
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? Yes +877 $500 64¢ $566 +$66 10-16 22:01
US recession by end of 2026? No +602 $500 94¢ $563 +$63 09-16 01:18
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +100,000 $400 1¢ $550 +$150 10-01 06:16
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +1,094 $547 48¢ $530 -$16 10-30 15:45
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes +513 $300 100¢ $512 +$212 08-26 13:33
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat? Yes +606 $345 84¢ $506 +$161 08-22 02:28
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +1,351 $500 36¢ $480 -$20 10-31 05:12
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +536 $424 86¢ $459 +$36 08-09 12:47
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +639 $396 72¢ $457 +$61 10-09 20:11
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +625 $400 73¢ $457 +$57 10-20 00:20
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No +653 $400 68¢ $444 +$44 10-29 02:37