Alarming-Entry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$867

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

50.7%

Resolved

2,446

Trades

6,486

lifetime

Volume

$21.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-03

last 10-21 19:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Crypto

41% 58% -$231

Other

36% 31% -$679

Sports

11% 44% +$43

Politics

9% 37% -$8

Tech

3% 50% +$9

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes		-34	-$2	10¢	$-3	-$2	08-28 09:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	73	$700	2,951	2,903	+48	No	-$28	07-19 18:44
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	37	$536	283	259	+24	No	+$1	08-18 19:49
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	14	$359	201	201	+0	No	+$2	07-08 23:39
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	5	$302	156	156	+0	No	-$3	06-19 15:02
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	31	$272	1,726	1,678	+48	No	-$12	06-23 18:17
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	20	$256	129	129	+0	No	$0	08-18 16:41
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 23?	15	$253	250	250	+0	Yes	+$243	05-23 08:02
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	96	$249	364	364	+0	No	-$1	05-17 21:01
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	22	$191	3,865	3,865	-0	No	+$5	06-19 19:47
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	4	$165	90	90	+0	Yes	+$14	07-09 13:07
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21?	60	$143	121	121	+0	Yes	$0	06-21 12:32
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry	6	$106	148	130	+19	Tommy Paul	+$49	05-20 14:33
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	3	$101	114	0	+114	No	+$13	07-09 14:27
fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 total 5pt5	2	$100	54	54	+0	Over	$0	06-19 20:57
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	9	$100	205	205	+0	Yes	-$3	05-31 10:48
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$98	341	341	+0	Yes	$0	06-19 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	11	$98	184	21	+163	Up	+$59	07-12 13:29
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	11	$95	3,217	3,217	+0	No	+$2	06-18 05:07
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	7	$94	204	204	+0	Yes	-$4	05-31 10:48
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	50	$91	167	167	+0	Yes	-$2	05-17 20:34
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	8	$90	224	224	+0	No	+$0	05-31 09:43
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	11	$88	45	45	-0	No	+$0	08-28 15:56
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	10	$85	274	0	+274	No	-$85	05-30 12:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	3	$84	54	54	+0	Up	+$24	05-16 10:45
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16?	10	$81	112	112	+0	No	+$15	06-16 23:16
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 15?	4	$79	986	58	+928	Yes	+$37	07-15 10:27
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	14	$76	535	472	+62	Yes	+$70	05-16 16:58
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	3	$72	63	11	+52	No	+$1	06-14 10:48
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 16?	4	$72	62	62	+0	Yes	+$52	07-16 13:01
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador?	5	$71	39	33	+6	No	+$0	06-15 00:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 19:45:32	Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0x02f894…
10-21 19:05:12	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 4 - 4 Viking FK?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xbcf376…
10-21 19:04:42	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 3 - 4 Viking FK?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xe7b351…
10-21 19:04:24	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 3 - 3 Viking FK?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x71f90d…
10-21 19:04:09	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 3 Viking FK?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x950b70…
10-21 19:03:47	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 3 Viking FK?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xb16f84…
10-21 19:03:29	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 2 Viking FK?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xbc45da…
10-21 19:03:03	Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9235a1…
10-13 19:20:15	Exact Score: Viking FK 1 - 1 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x9acbfb…
10-13 19:19:55	Exact Score: Viking FK 2 - 0 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x67eeac…
10-13 19:10:34	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	6¢	$1	0x014bb3…
10-13 19:10:27	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	SELL	23	3¢	$1	0xe87ba2…
10-13 19:10:21	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0x129d96…
10-13 19:10:13	Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0xd16371…
10-13 18:51:36	Exact Score: Viking FK 3 - 4 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x853547…
10-13 18:51:13	Exact Score: Viking FK 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xad0384…
10-13 18:50:58	Exact Score: Viking FK 4 - 0 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	113	1¢	$1	0x210d41…
10-13 18:50:45	Exact Score: Viking FK 3 - 1 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x202bfe…
10-13 18:50:19	Exact Score: Viking FK 2 - 1 FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xe8ce99…
10-13 18:21:21	Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	91	5¢	$5	0x1b33f2…
09-28 14:33:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x47f4a5…
09-28 14:32:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xe7f6c4…
09-28 14:32:12	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	2¢	$2	0xb16ace…
09-28 14:31:38	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0x3b99a1…
09-28 14:30:33	Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x54de53…
09-27 20:42:59	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Portugal?	Yes	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0xeec60b…
09-27 20:41:03	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Portugal?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xcfdff7…
09-27 20:08:50	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Portugal?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xa85485…
09-27 20:05:36	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Portugal?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x6a3934…
09-27 20:05:06	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Portugal?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe9b86b…
09-27 20:03:44	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Portugal?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x16c0c6…
09-27 20:03:24	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Portugal?	Yes	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0xdc05f7…
09-27 20:02:09	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Portugal?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x104c1d…
09-27 19:57:59	Will Norway vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xeb80dc…
09-27 19:57:48	Will Norway win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x34d96b…
09-17 21:31:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xdfb451…
09-03 13:51:37	2nd Half Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)	VfB Stuttgart	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x65ecb2…
09-02 20:40:18	bun stu koe 2026 09 04 second half spread home 1pt5	VfB Stuttgart	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x470d45…
08-29 00:12:42	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xa593e9…
08-29 00:12:30	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x1ba4a1…
08-29 00:12:12	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x10746d…
08-29 00:11:36	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xa16d25…
08-29 00:11:12	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x8bf3c7…
08-29 00:11:07	Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x252d3b…
08-28 15:57:57	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 15 and 20 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x1fadd7…
08-28 15:56:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x3f5c3e…
08-28 09:20:51	Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	16	6¢	$1	0xc07e2a…
08-25 14:25:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xcb7edb…
08-25 14:23:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x2bf610…
08-25 11:46:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xadae65…
08-25 11:45:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x94dd15…
08-24 19:54:33	Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	9	52¢	$4	0x79d010…
08-24 19:41:03	Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-08-24?	No	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0x54fe28…
08-24 14:44:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x011456…
08-24 14:44:18	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xd46682…
08-24 02:11:33	mlb atl mil 2026 08 23	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0x39443e…
08-24 02:11:33	mlb atl mil 2026 08 23	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x2d8c58…
08-24 02:11:33	mlb atl mil 2026 08 23	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x0922fa…
08-23 15:39:01	Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 3 Winner	FUT Esports	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x0a306d…
08-23 11:35:06	lol fox1 ns 2026 08 23	BNK FEARX	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xffc16d…
08-21 10:04:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 21?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x9ddc18…
08-21 05:25:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x7dd74d…
08-21 05:24:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x684034…
08-20 17:28:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x33b2cb…
08-20 17:27:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x5be59f…
08-20 17:25:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2f2138…
08-20 17:24:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:20 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x73484b…
08-20 17:24:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x220372…
08-20 17:23:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb1ee6e…
08-20 17:23:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:20 UTC	Down	SELL	27	11¢	$3	0xe60026…
08-20 17:22:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x3b47ef…
08-20 17:22:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x2e4660…
08-20 17:20:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x885b04…
08-20 17:18:12	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xd5ec6b…
08-20 17:17:33	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x745846…
08-20 17:17:27	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xb4e3d0…
08-19 13:43:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x2b2e13…
08-18 21:06:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xf8eed5…
08-18 19:49:40	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xcecbea…
08-18 19:46:01	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x54cf97…
08-18 19:28:31	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	145	99¢	$144	0xeaa680…
08-18 18:15:24	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xa57220…
08-18 17:35:31	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x1e4606…
08-18 16:46:33	Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6b84ab…
08-18 16:46:18	Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3aa0d5…
08-18 16:46:00	Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x24efab…
08-18 16:45:42	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xacf57a…
08-18 16:41:37	Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xe5be78…
08-18 16:41:25	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0xf65ff1…
08-18 16:41:06	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0xda7327…
08-18 16:41:01	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	147	1¢	$1	0x910968…
08-18 16:40:22	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x11cd7c…
08-18 16:40:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0x37b43f…
08-18 16:38:13	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xb3c43d…
08-18 16:38:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x47391e…
08-18 16:37:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xdd8b74…
08-18 16:34:10	Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x13324a…
08-18 16:28:24	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	113	99¢	$112	0x5edd74…
08-18 16:28:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x0d3ca4…
08-18 16:27:22	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on August 18?	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xa07d8a…