Vigilant-Congressperson — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

13.1%

Resolved

Trades

2,559

lifetime

Volume

$29.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 08-10 00:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

73% 33% $-41

Other

26% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 157 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	132	$2.0K	2,347	2,535	-188	open	—	06-29 18:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	97	$1.6K	3,528	3,673	-145	open	—	07-07 07:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	98	$733	862	1,060	-198	open	—	06-15 04:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	35	$728	1,855	2,768	-913	open	—	06-01 12:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	22	$714	1,102	1,102	+0	open	—	05-26 13:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	30	$653	628	628	+0	open	—	07-06 10:05
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	23	$552	620	620	+0	open	—	05-26 09:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	23	$524	632	632	+0	open	—	05-29 14:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	21	$523	2,499	2,499	+0	open	—	05-27 17:42
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	68	$519	621	477	+144	open	—	08-05 08:32
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	51	$482	1,116	382	+734	open	—	08-09 02:20
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	19	$476	1,819	1,819	+0	open	—	06-01 10:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	25	$461	209	720	-511	open	—	06-21 13:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	45	$441	467	467	+0	open	—	08-10 08:31
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	44	$426	561	558	+3	open	—	08-09 17:01
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	41	$426	457	457	-1	open	—	06-18 18:45
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	23	$418	829	725	+104	open	—	08-09 14:17
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	34	$413	384	312	+72	open	—	05-29 18:33
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	44	$361	429	423	+6	open	—	06-29 21:09
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	43	$361	318	318	+0	open	—	07-13 14:18
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	21	$350	1,243	996	+247	open	—	05-29 15:43
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	17	$345	267	155	+111	open	—	08-04 14:28
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	45	$331	464	464	-0	open	—	07-25 15:40
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	19	$330	3,389	3,389	+0	open	—	05-27 22:44
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	26	$330	344	344	+0	open	—	06-14 21:07
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	40	$327	172	272	-101	open	—	06-28 23:56
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	30	$319	334	225	+109	open	—	06-20 19:22
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	24	$302	298	254	+44	open	—	08-03 20:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	59	$300	1,966	2,052	-86	open	—	06-14 21:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	22	$281	254	445	-191	open	—	06-17 20:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 09:05:09	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0xb17db6…
08-10 08:31:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	162	51¢	$82	0x79c38f…
08-10 08:31:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	48¢	$11	0x76fb05…
08-10 08:31:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	66	48¢	$32	0xa3e161…
08-10 08:31:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	73	48¢	$35	0x875fbc…
08-10 08:02:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0x2d263d…
08-10 00:57:51	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x368549…
08-10 00:33:31	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	22	58¢	$13	0xe4d74a…
08-10 00:08:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xde404c…
08-09 22:42:46	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	9	94¢	$9	0x922cd2…
08-09 21:46:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0xf75032…
08-09 21:33:06	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	Yes	BUY	25	31¢	$8	0x2cfc0d…
08-09 20:54:46	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	23	63¢	$14	0xac65c4…
08-09 20:50:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x9917b6…
08-09 17:22:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	54	22¢	$12	0x226f2a…
08-09 17:01:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xe97c24…
08-09 14:17:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	84	19¢	$16	0x0d696c…
08-09 14:13:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	84	20¢	$17	0x77a0cc…
08-09 14:13:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	110	20¢	$22	0x374af3…
08-09 11:16:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	110	21¢	$23	0xb2afd9…
08-09 02:20:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb9e350…
08-08 19:52:06	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	41	59¢	$24	0x10ad2b…
08-08 19:51:15	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	16	59¢	$10	0xb3570e…
08-08 19:51:10	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	6	59¢	$3	0x4e1051…
08-08 18:10:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	83	25¢	$21	0xe68049…
08-08 17:37:03	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x04770d…
08-08 16:05:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	83	26¢	$22	0xe076b4…
08-08 14:30:57	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	15	95¢	$15	0x741799…
08-08 14:30:45	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0x62e86f…
08-08 11:36:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	23	87¢	$20	0xd20340…
08-08 10:29:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	4	87¢	$4	0x38cfed…
08-08 05:28:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x9c3c9a…
08-08 02:03:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	125	14¢	$17	0x841670…
08-08 01:41:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	169	14¢	$24	0x0ac738…
08-07 18:14:40	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	21	72¢	$15	0xd13e89…
08-07 18:12:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x7a60c9…
08-07 17:55:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	3	91¢	$2	0x1c7c75…
08-07 17:52:39	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0xd779c5…
08-07 17:52:10	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0x998821…
08-07 17:49:40	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0xbb24b3…
08-07 17:49:19	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x17bfae…
08-07 16:34:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	3	92¢	$2	0xf7faf5…
08-07 08:49:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x0f277b…
08-07 06:47:33	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	76	92¢	$70	0x4746c7…
08-07 06:46:55	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xfb7aa6…
08-06 20:44:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	125	10¢	$13	0xfcda25…
08-06 20:05:45	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	SELL	12	94¢	$12	0x60b9b5…
08-06 16:36:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x949f9f…
08-06 16:16:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	49	78¢	$38	0x82c4ac…
08-06 11:58:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	28	84¢	$23	0xc5496d…
08-06 10:48:45	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	BUY	18	20¢	$4	0xed2a3c…
08-06 04:58:35	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	No	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0x4ff0f6…
08-06 01:11:42	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	43	25¢	$11	0x3dcce1…
08-06 01:11:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	60	24¢	$14	0xafc491…
08-06 01:11:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x8cafca…
08-05 22:47:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0xc9e04a…
08-05 22:04:17	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xc967c8…
08-05 20:37:11	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	BUY	88	22¢	$19	0xe1eb49…
08-05 18:11:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	23	84¢	$19	0xc00a18…
08-05 17:56:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	9	83¢	$8	0x3dcd41…
08-05 17:56:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x453c27…
08-05 16:39:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x0b1143…
08-05 16:11:35	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0x48a387…
08-05 15:21:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	BUY	16	90¢	$15	0x7527a3…
08-05 15:16:44	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0x96a19a…
08-05 13:04:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	84	39¢	$33	0x5b3d7d…
08-05 09:34:03	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x82f53d…
08-05 08:32:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	15¢	$3	0x6f4a5f…
08-05 08:06:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x12e07f…
08-05 07:50:30	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0xc8ee4b…
08-05 02:10:33	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x81d16b…
08-04 23:41:24	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x5d332a…
08-04 22:41:39	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0x2376d0…
08-04 22:15:26	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0xa2e7a1…
08-04 22:10:51	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0x7fc0cf…
08-04 21:16:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xb6a72c…
08-04 20:36:44	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x7048a6…
08-04 20:21:45	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	31	50¢	$15	0x213913…
08-04 20:21:39	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x13f71e…
08-04 19:52:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xcb16b2…
08-04 19:32:02	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	33	52¢	$17	0x44dd53…
08-04 17:46:51	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x822141…
08-04 17:44:36	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	38	15¢	$6	0x219ad7…
08-04 17:22:44	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	SELL	27	29¢	$8	0xdcbeb0…
08-04 17:03:53	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0xa42f59…
08-04 16:48:18	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0xbfea6b…
08-04 15:33:08	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x151b47…
08-04 14:58:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x99008d…
08-04 14:58:00	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xad780f…
08-04 14:28:29	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0x22c3ce…
08-04 13:46:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	23	53¢	$12	0xfe9761…
08-04 13:43:35	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	8	96¢	$7	0x4598ee…
08-04 13:35:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	236	62¢	$146	0x201c15…
08-04 13:26:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xb9cc35…
08-04 13:25:50	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0xf62da8…
08-04 13:25:36	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x622baf…
08-04 13:24:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	13	29¢	$4	0xc92a49…
08-04 13:24:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	32	30¢	$10	0x30b513…
08-04 13:23:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x215d03…
08-04 13:22:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x114b5f…