Realized P&L
-$41
Unrealized P&L
-$231
Hit rate
13.1%
Resolved
3
Trades
572
lifetime
Volume
$8.74K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$15
Open exposure
$841
22 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 06-10 00:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Politics
82% 33% $-41
Other
18%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
37 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No -511 $-133 64¢ $-330 $-197 05-29 19:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -210 $-172 90¢ $-190 $-18 06-03 14:27
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes -370 $-40 12¢ $-46 $-6 06-05 21:45
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No +43 $41 98¢ $42 +$1 06-09 02:59
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +35 $31 90¢ $31 +$0 06-01 12:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes +124 $58 20¢ $24 $-34 06-03 14:43
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No +27 $14 80¢ $22 +$8 05-28 20:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +122 $-5 16¢ $19 +$23 06-09 16:44
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No +25 $18 74¢ $19 +$1 06-09 21:18
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +28 $17 62¢ $18 +$1 06-01 03:22
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +18 $17 96¢ $17 +$0 06-08 01:21
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes -252 $-15 $-14 +$1 06-03 14:24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No +14 $13 94¢ $13 +$0 06-08 22:12
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No +10 $9 100¢ $10 +$1 06-06 12:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes +24 $9 40¢ $9 +$1 06-09 13:24
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes +11 $7 66¢ $7 $-0 06-09 16:41
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +164 $26 $7 $-19 05-29 23:53
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -8 $-7 82¢ $-7 $-0 06-08 01:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +64 $-1 10¢ $6 +$7 06-09 16:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +6 $5 97¢ $5 +$0 06-09 23:06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +5 $4 82¢ $4 +$0 06-09 19:19
Netanyahu out by June 30? No -1 $-1 98¢ $-1 +$0 06-01 07:10